Major League Soccer season 2024, Thursday, 30.05.2024
While most of my colleagues are already focusing on the European Championship betting, I personally plan to take a closer look at the US betting offers until the week after next.
Today I have optimistically placed a Montreal DC United betting tip!
It’s worth paying attention to this one. Based on concise data and facts, I will show you why a soccer bet of the under 3.5 goals type is based on a solid statistical foundation, especially in this pairing
As a result of a couple of highly unsuccessful weeks, the Canadians dropped to 13th place and are currently seven points away from the play-offs.
With four defeats in the last five matchdays, Montreal have fallen far short of expectations, which is mainly due to unresolved defensive problems.
After the humiliating 5-1 defeat in the Canadian derby against Toronto, coach Courtois made tactical adjustments, which at least partially bore fruit in the recent 0-0 draw against Nashville.
Still, in the long run, all parts of the team have to play consistently well to have a real chance at postseason soccer – and I don’t see that happening with “The Crown” right now.
However, the home side could be motivated by the final atmosphere. After a poor start to the season and a difficult fixture list, Montreal must beat DC United to avoid an early play-off elimination.
However, Montreal have not won any of their last three MLS games against the team from the US capital, Washington, and also lost their last sporting encounter with DC United on March 31 with a score of 0:1.
Favorite result? In fact, four of the last five head-to-head meetings have ended 1-0, three times for DC United and once for Montreal
The fact that Montreal have only scored 17 MLS goals so far comes as little surprise. The Canadians’ best attackers have been injured for weeks, which has led to them failing to capitalize on their own big chances.
Both Matias Coccaro and Joseph Martinez will be out for a long time due to knee injuries. In addition, Lassi Lapallainen is still in recovery training due to groin problems.
But DC United will also be without players. Midfielder Russell Canouse has been out since the end of March due to illness and will continue to be sidelined against Montreal
DC United started May unbeaten with a spectacular draw against Philadelphia (2-2), followed by an impressive win at home to Atlanta United (3-2).
However, the streak came to an abrupt end against the New York Red Bulls, who inflicted a bloodcurdling 4-1 defeat on the Capitals.
It seems to have been a real impact. Afterwards, DCU failed to get back on the winning track against both Inter Miami (0:1) and Chicago Fire (1:1).
After an initial analysis of their respective form, two teams will face each other on Thursday that have underperformed in recent weeks, are struggling with various injuries and are unlikely to earn a play-off place.
The German bookmakers also seem to correctly interpret that there can be no clear favorite in this matter.
According to their Montreal DC United odds, the home advantage of the Canadians is completely outweighed by the slightly better form of the visitors.
In any case, the respective win odds for both teams are in a narrow corridor, oscillating between 2.55 and 2.63 – depending on which sports betting app you use exactly.
The defense of DC United is below average, but still better than the back line of CF Montreal.
“The Crown have conceded 31 goals so far (28th in the league), six more than the Capitals.
A 1X2 bet is a high-risk affair in my eyes, as anything seems possible in this regard. However, the situation is different with an under 3.5-goal bet.
The bookmakers are offering odds of around 1.51 for the occurrence of this by no means improbable event – even though none of the last ten direct MLS duels between Montreal and DC United have broken this mark.
Conclusion: Based on the form curve of both teams, it is really difficult to make a classic Montreal DC United betting tip in 1X2 format that fills me with confidence.
The Canadians will be weakened by many injury-related absences in several positions, but the Capitals, on the other hand, are feared by betting experts due to their acute fluctuations in form.
On the other hand, I consider an under-3.5-goal bet to be much more interesting, as the odds on this bet are first-class and the data shows how rarely this mark is broken in direct duels
Our tip: Under 3.5 goals
