Serie A, Monday, 13/01/2025 at 8:45 p.m.
The new year begins as the last one ended for AC Monza, with a defeat. The 1-2 against Cagliari was already the fifth league defeat in a row. There are already seven points to the 17th place, which would be enough to stay in the league.
Will there finally be points in the account again on Monday? I doubt it, given the upcoming opponent and their current form, but I’m covering myself with the “Double Chance X2” at Bet365 and expect a pretty heated game with at least two goals.
New coach, same results. Salvatore Bocchetti took over the ailing Club Monza shortly before Christmas. Three 1-2 defeats against Udinese, Lecce and Juventus were followed by two more 1-2 defeats against Parma and Cagliari under his leadership.
Two bitter defeats against teams that are also in the thick of the relegation battle. Five consecutive 1-2 defeats, so the focus must naturally be on exactly this outcome for the game against Florence.
And indeed, a very respectable odds of 8.50 is waiting for this result.
If we add the 0-1 defeat to Bologna in mid-December and the 1-1 draw against Vitoria Guimares in the Conference League, Florence have not won in five consecutive games. Therefore, the lucrative away win rate of 1.82 does not really appeal to me.
Nevertheless, I see how the betting providers most likely this outcome. Monza has a 4.20 odds, just below the draw bet is a 3.50 odds.
The AC Monza, who could only win one game in the first half of the season under Nesta, continues to struggle with injury concerns. Above all, captain Matteo Pessina, a key player in the center. In addition, two other midfielders, Roberto Gagliardini and Georgios Kyriakopoulos, are missing.
On top of that, Danilo D’Ambrosio is serving a red card suspension. Edoardo Bove is another key player for Fiorentina who is battling with his body, but the number four is the only injured player for the guests.
Six consecutive matches for Monza in which the bottom-ranked team has conceded more than one goal. Given this record, the double chance X2 is the logical conclusion for me. Due to the defensive problems of both teams, over 1.5 hits are an optimal addition.
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Overall, Monza has brought together 174 deals, the fewest of the entire Serie A, but at least it is second to last in expected goals. Jean-Daniel Akpa Akpro should provide a little more stability and depth in the midfield.
The 32-year-old was loaned from Lazio.
Nicolas Valentini was signed from Boca Juniors, while Lucas Martinez Quarta, a central defender, left for River Plate in Argentina for seven million euros.
Monza is currently playing his third consecutive Serie A season. Accordingly, we also have a few duels against Florence to look forward to. Overall, we have seen five matches between the teams in the top flight since then.
The northern Italians were only able to win the first leg in the 2022/23 season 3-2. Fiorentina left the pitch as winners twice in the two matches last season.
In the first leg of this season, however, Raffaele Palladino’s team only managed a 2-2 draw at home, or fortunately? After all, Florence were trailing 2-0 and only managed to equalize in the sixth minute of stoppage time.
Overall, the hosts were the better team, but they didn’t capitalize enough on their opportunities. Monza was efficient, converting every second of his shots.
Conclusion: Monza looks back on six competitive defeats in a row and now the return match against Fiorentina is coming up? In the first leg, the underdog was in the lead for a long time before conceding a very late 2-2. However, the Conference League participant was dominant.
The bottom-placed team is struggling with stability, with captain Pessina only returning in February. Florence is not in the best of forms either, but has also had a tough program recently.
The visitors should get at least a point. Both teams also had a few high-scoring games recently. We also saw at least two goals in four out of five duels in recent years.
That’s why my Monza Fiorentina betting tip is: Double chance X2 & Over 1.5 goals.
