Serie A, Sunday, 09.03.2025 at 15:00
Neapoli’s attacking play is noticeably in crisis – the key players who are injured, have moved away or are out of form compared to the first half of the season are taking their toll. That’s why I think SSC will only manage a narrow 1:0 win against the “Viola” – if at all!
In my Napoli Fiorentina prediction, I am specifically using the attractive Betano bonus.
One of the reasons for this is that I firmly believe that, with a bit of luck, this promising tip could well pay off.
The form curves of these two teams could hardly be more stagnant at the moment. Both the Neapolitans and the Viola are treading water in the league and are desperately looking for a way out.
While the home side are without a win in five games (4 draws, 1 defeat), Florence at least managed to pick up three points recently – albeit a very narrow 1-0 win against Lecce.
So neither team has a significant tailwind, but that is precisely what makes this match so exciting: who will be the first to get out of the crisis?
Who has the nerve to finally flip the switch in this crucial clash?
The team from Tuscany could have traveled to Campania with more confidence – but the 3-2 defeat to Panathinaikos in the Conference League last Thursday, which I predicted, also cost them a lot of energy.
What was particularly annoying was that the Greeks had to do without half a team and still came out on top. It is precisely this aspect that could now be seen as a major disadvantage for Florence.
After all, Napoli have the better squad anyway and, as is well known, had the week off!
So while Fiorentina have an energy-sapping away game in their bones, the “Azzurri” were able to recover in peace from their 1:1 draw against Inter Milan the previous week.
But will that be enough to finally score three points again? Doubts are justified, as Antonio Conte’s team have not exactly looked like a real top team recently. And I’ll explain why now:
The SSC offense in particular raises questions. Romelu Lukaku may be fit again, but the hapless Belgian has been waiting weeks for a taste of success. He almost seems like a foreign body now!
David Neres, who was supposed to replace Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, is also injured, which is why the offense is not developing as it has in recent months.
Napoli have only scored more than once in their last five league games. That alone speaks volumes for a team that were mercilessly outplaying their Serie A rivals just a few months ago!
This is exactly what we can expect on Sunday: a physical, two-legged duel in which both teams will throw everything into.
The home side not only have home advantage, but also the fact that they have at least managed to secure a few draws in recent weeks. However, without sufficient offensive power, they could quickly get bogged down!
Meanwhile, the Napoli Fiorentina odds of 1.60 from reputable bookmakers for an SSC win are anything but tempting in my eyes.
In contrast, a bet on “Fiorentina to win one half”, which is currently priced at 3.05 on the Merkur Bet app, could be much more exciting for you.
The “Both teams to score” option is also a good option – after all, the Neapolitans have always conceded at least one goal in their last seven competitive matches, but have also scored themselves.
By the way: The first-round duel ended almost two months ago with a 3:0 victory for Napoli.
But the omens are completely different this time. Back then, the now injured David Neres scored, while Lukaku – who is currently completely out of form – scored twice (1 goal, 1 assist).
Conclusion: The bottom line is that it will be a close affair. Napoli have a slight advantage because SSC are fresher, but that doesn’t mean it will be a walkover.
Fiorentina are uncomfortable and will do everything they can to take at least a point.
And if we look at the result: A 1-1 would probably be the most obvious result here – higher final scores would actually surprise me a bit.
My Napoli Fiorentina tip: Draw at the break!
