Major League Soccer season 2024, Saturday, 01.06.2024
While we are also devoting more and more time to the Euro 2024 tips, we are using the Bundesliga-free time to look outside the box. This time to the MLS, where New York City FC host San Jose on Saturday night. Only New England (7) have collected fewer points than San Jose (11) this season, regardless of the conference. The Quakes are currently winless in four league games.
A “New York City win” is not enough for me in the New York City San Jose betting tip, so I add “Over 2.5 goals in the game” for a match combination and thus play odds of over 2.15 at Interwetten
If you want to place your bet for this game on a “New York City win”, you can go for odds of around 1.60 and get up to an additional 100 euros with the Interwetten bonus as a new customer.
Three points for the visitors have top odds of 4.90 and can be played with a free bet at most, even for the strong-nerved betting fans among you.
Supervised by Luchi Gonzáles, “The Goonies” have lost six of their first eight guest appearances, and not by much. On average, the visitors conceded 2.63 goals per away game.
For their own well-being, they needed an above-average 1.88 goals per away game to avoid being completely dismantled
Whoever has allowed 88 percent of their away games to rise to at least three goals a game should be a suitable target for a “Over 2.5 goals a game” match combo.
If you only compare the attack of the two opponents, you will find no difference at all, but 22.5 expected goals each.
This means that New York City and San Jose are both among the ten best attacking teams in the MLS
The decisive difference lies in the quality of the defense. There are only four teams in the league that have conceded more expected goals than San Jose (24.0 xGA).
“The Pigeons, on the other hand, do not neglect their work against the ball nearly as much as the Quakes, allowing only 19.4 expected goals against.
With two top 10 offenses, you can take the odds up to 1.65 in the various sports betting apps and bet on “Over 2.5 goals in the game”
There is little doubt in my mind that the hosts will win. New York City FC have won four league games in a row and seven of their previous eight games in the MLS!
During six of those seven victorious appearances, the third-placed team in the Eastern Conference combined for at least two goals.
However, that was something of a magic threshold. For “Over 2.5 goals New York City”, the necessary luck was missing in most cases (7/8).
If you take a look at the history of this fixture, you’ll find further indications that NYCFC will be successful at home.
The hosts have not lost any of their eight head-to-head meetings and have won five of them.
However, four of the Blues’ five wins have been by just one goal difference. Instead of playing a “New York City win (HC -1)”, I would therefore advise a “Draw (HC 0:1)” with odds of 3.95 at the best bookmakers.
The goal difference at the PayPal Arena in New York City also speaks in favor of this approach.
Despite five wins from eight home games, this is still relatively low at 12:8 goals.
However, that doesn’t dissuade me from a “New York City win” bet. The hosts have created enough chances so far to create 28 big chances (6th)
The home side’s early form is impressive and seven wins from their last eight league games have boosted their confidence.
There is no sign of self-confidence at San Jose after four games without a win in a row and just eleven points from 15 matches. The only ray of hope is the potential in attack.
My New York City San Jose tip is: Win NYCFC & over 2.5 goals a game!
