EFL Cup, semi-final, second leg, Wednesday, 05/02/2025 at 9:00 p.m.
Catch up from 0:2? Away? Against a strong opponent? Who has an absolutely unerring super striker in his ranks? Not easy! This week, the semi-finals of the EFL Cup are on the program, more precisely, the second legs.
So, first off, it is important to note in my Newcastle Arsenal tip that the Gunners lost the first leg 0-2, so they know exactly what a difficult task they face at St. James Park on Wednesday. The first final since 2018 is in jeopardy!
On the other hand, the Magpies are obviously hoping to be able to hold on to their lead. They are performing really well in the EFL Cup, having knocked out opponents that would have been too strong for them in the Premier League.
No easy task for our Apple Pay bookmakers to come up with clear odds here. Although Arsenal FC is favored, Newcastle is clearly ahead in terms of progressing. No question about it: some have to catch up, while others can wait and see!
I am very excited about this game, because it is like this with a 2-0 lead: we can either expect a boring 0-0, in which one team just defends, but at the same time a wild shootout is also possible!
The betting odds prediction?
Newcastle no longer needs to win, even a narrow defeat would be enough to see them through! It is therefore only logical that this results in them being the underdogs, which is why a win achieves odds of 3.15.
On the other hand, the Londoners are under pressure to win. If they actually manage to do that, and you have favored tip 2, it will be rewarded with odds of 2.20 – even though a 1-0 or 2-1 would not be enough!
A draw would definitely mean the end of Arsenal’s campaign. It is interesting to note that 24 of the last 26 direct duels have NOT seen a draw! Do you still want to bet on it? You can, of course, with odds of 3.60.
Analysis: Newcastle vs Arsenal
Arsenal had imagined this quite differently! In the semi-final first leg of the EFL Cup, they lost 0-2 at home to Newcastle. This is surprising given that the club from the capital is unbeaten in the Premier League at the Emirates.
This has not happened in the Champions League either – here, as one of the top eight teams, they qualified directly for the knockout phase – in fact, all their home games have been won without conceding.
But that one match against Newcastle went wrong. Alexander Isak and Anthony Gordon scored for the opponents, so now they need to score at least two goals themselves. It’s a good thing that their form in the Premier League is good!
Last weekend, the Gunners swept aside Manchester City 5-1, and they are six points behind Liverpool FC (with one game more). The problem: against supposedly easy opponents, there is often a draw.
Odds analysis
If I have to make a decision for a 1×2 bet, I choose the guests. Arsenal will certainly do everything to avert elimination, and Newcastle have lost their last two home league games.
At the same time, I can well imagine that the Gunners will score an early goal. In general, they have to play boldly forward, which in turn creates spaces for the opponent. In this respect, you could be right with an “Over 2.5 goals” bet.
Kai Havertz is a crucial man for Arsenal. He scored and also set up a goal against City. In the Premier League, there have only been three games in which the German international did not score. If he is also successful on Wednesday, you would get odds of 3.20 – if you have placed the corresponding bet with Betano!
Can Arsenal actually strike back?
In the EFL Cup, Arsenal are lucky that they have not been eliminated before. In the quarter-finals against Crystal Palace, the favorites had a very difficult time and only escaped with a 3-2 victory.
Gabriel Jesus was the man of the match, scoring all three goals. For the sake of completeness, here is the info for you: Before that, the Londoners knocked out Reston 3-0 and Bolton 5-1.
Three years ago, Arsenal last appeared in the semi-finals of the EFL Cup, when they lost 0-2 after a 0-0 draw against Liverpool. The last time they were in the final? That was in 2018. The last time they won a title? That was even longer ago: the Gunners last stood at the top in 1993.
Newcastle on a par?
So the EFL Cup is definitely not the favorite competition, maybe, without wanting to accuse the team of anything, Arsenal will focus more on the Premier or even Champions League in 2024/25.
Since both the first leg of the EFL Cup and the first round of the Premier League were lost to Newcastle, without scoring in either case, the Londoners are challenged not to suffer three defeats in a row against the Magpies for the first time since the 1990s.
0:1, 0:1, 2:0, 0:2, 2:0, 1:0? Interestingly, the last few appearances at St. James Park never featured goals on both sides. Newcastle, of course, know that if they don’t concede a goal on Wednesday – or at least only one – they are guaranteed a place in the final.
The team has obviously set its sights high in the EFL Cup this 2024-25 season, as it is doing really well. Right from the start, the top team from Nottingham was knocked out on penalties.
They then beat Wimbledon 1-0 and Chelsea 2-0. A 3-1 win over Brentford set them up for this semi-final. Three 1-0 wins, two 2-0 wins – the half-time results alone show how strong the club is performing.
A 1-0 lead at half-time against Arsenal in the second leg would result in odds of 5.30 at Winamax. At Winamax, it is also possible to get your hands on up to €100 in the form of betting credits – what a great bonus!
So how did the Magpies lose their last two home games in the Premier League? 1-4 to Bournemouth and 1-2 to Fulham – and that after only two defeats in the entire season so far!
Boredom is not an issue for Newcastle. The last eleven games alone have seen 43 goals! The forward line benefits in particular from the fact that Alexander Isak is in a brutally good phase.
He has scored 17 goals and provided five assists since matchday number nine and has only failed to score four times. His club’s record: three defeats and one draw! Isak is incredibly important for Newcastle, without him very little comes together.
In this respect, it would of course always be a good option for you to bet on Isak scoring again. At Betano, you get odds of 2.30, and no one, not even on the Gunners’ side, comes close to such a low value!
1976 and 2023: these two years are probably marked in red on many a fan’s calendar. They mark the only two seasons in which Newcastle made it to the EFL Cup final – but they never managed to win the title!
My Mapgpies Gunners Tip:
Is Arsenal going to blow their first chance at a title this season? In the EFL Cup, they have to come back from a 2-0 deficit against Newcastle, and that’s away from home, where the Gunners have a few weaknesses to overcome anyway.
The Magpies have only lost twice at home recently, but overall they are still in good form. Plus, they have Alexander Isak on their side. However, they don’t even have to win on Wednesday.
I therefore expect the home side to take a rather defensive approach to the game, as their performances in this competition have been rock solid. That’s why I’ve decided on the following bet:
Arsenal don’t lose again, but we see a maximum of four goals!
