Coppa Italia Quarter-final, Wednesday, 05/02/2025 at 9:00 p.m.
Both opponents played a “big match” in the Serie A at the weekend – and at least they didn’t lose. But now the only thing that counts is to reach the semi-finals of the Coppa Italia!
According to the rules, if the game is still tied after 90 minutes, it goes straight to a penalty shootout.
Milan has a slight advantage in their own stadium, but Roma is on the rise again under Ranieri. Who will come out on top in this thrilling duel? My AS Roma AC Milan betting tip will tell you about the best betting options.
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Both clubs have a lot in common. For example, they both drew against a title contender at the weekend and also share the same fate: after a disappointing first half of the season and a necessary change of coach, both teams are now on the up.
I also have a specific AC Milan AS Roma betting tip for the Coppa Italia clash ready for you.
I favor the guests slightly because they have rested for Wednesday and also to enable higher sports betting winnings.
The betting providers’ prediction?
The German betting providers are having difficulty naming a clear favorite. However, Milan is considered the “slight favorite” with odds of 2.00, which is to be expected given the home advantage.
A draw, on the other hand, is rated at 3.45, while an away win is around 3.55 according to the current AC Milan AS Roma odds, so this is also somewhere in the realm of possibility.
Analysis: AC Milan vs AS Roma
Personally, I’m not quite sure what to make of Milan.
Yes, they’ve been on the rise since Concencaio took over, but they still have too many lulls in the course of a game. They simply can’t afford that in important all-or-nothing games. Nevertheless, three Milan derbies won in one season? Even in the glory days of the “Rossoneri”, there was no such thing.
Just as Milan played 1-1 in the derby against Inter at the weekend, Roma and Napoli also drew 1-1 in the “Derby del Sole”.
It was obvious that coach Claudio Ranieri wanted to rest his regular players as much as possible in view of the quarter-final against Milan.
Players like Dybala, Dovbyk, Pellegrini or even Hummels only came on after the break or were not substituted at all.
The “Giallorossi” not only managed to take an important point against the league leaders, but will also be much more rested for the upcoming game against the Milanese.
Odds Analysis
Don’t be surprised if it’s 0-0 for a long time.
However, I also expect both teams to open up in the second half at the latest, as no one wants to go straight into a penalty shootout without extra time.
Regardless of this, I see some “value bet potential” in a 0-0 result bet at half-time at an impressive odds of around 2.90.
Both sides will probably play much more cautiously until half-time.
In 2024, there was hardly a match in Italy as often!
Milan vs. Roma is a colorful encounter that occurred no fewer than five times in “Bella Italia” in 2024 alone.
Two of these games were in the Serie A, two in the Europa League and one was a friendly.
If we only count the competitive games, Milan only won the first clash. Since then, the “Giallorossi” have been unbeaten (2 wins, 1 draw).
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Roma: This darn quarter-final!
To find a joint Coppa Italia match, I had to go back a long way in the history books of Italian football – a whopping 18 years. In January 2007, the Romans beat the Milanese 5-2 in the semi-finals. However, since this was almost two decades ago, I decided to look at more relevant data for my AC Milan AS Roma betting tip.
What makes me wonder is that Roma have not reached the semi-finals since the 2016/17 season. Now, for the fourth time in a row, they are even facing elimination in the round of the last eight.
Is it just bad luck or a case of football hex? Personally, I wouldn’t read too much into it though as Ranieri’s ‘Giallorossi’ are on an upward trajectory. Don’t forget that the last time these sides met, just before the New Year, it was a success for the Romans.
Ranieri led his recently acquired team to a 1-1 draw at the San Siro, which promptly led to the sacking of Paulo Fonseca. The capital city team have therefore shown that they have already found each other under their new coach.
Incidentally, Dybala and Dovbyk, who were rested at the weekend, each scored a point on this occasion.
My tip:
Roma prepared better for this game and got a point against Napoli, although many key players were deliberately rested.
They also put up a strong fight against their opponents on their last visit to the San Siro, which is why I am not willing to doubt them now.
Especially not with the lucrative AC Milan AS Roma odds, which allow me to reduce the risk.
My AC Milan AS Roma betting tip is: Roma will win.