Premier League, Sunday, 11.05.2025 at 13:00
St. James Park is the home ground of the Magpies. Crowds flock to every home game and fill the arena to the last seat. The same can be expected this weekend, even if the kick-off time (1pm) is not the best.
A home game has a special significance in direct duels between Newcastle and Chelsea. The five previous meetings between these two teams have always gone to the host team.
As a Newcastle Chelsea tip, I recommend a goal bet, for which you get odds of 1.77 at ODDSET “Newcastle Over 1.5 goals”
This match is a real cracker. Newcastle (4th) and Chelsea (5th) are battling it out with several other top teams for the coveted Champions League places.
Three matchdays before the end of the season, both teams are level on points (63) and both are in good form. Nevertheless, you will receive lower odds for a home win (2.15) than for a Blues success (3.35).
Chelsea made it to the Conference League final during the week as expected. It was the fifth competitive win in a row for Enzo Maresca’s team.
Away games in the Premier League have repeatedly presented a small hurdle in recent months. Chelsea have won just one of their last nine away games in the PL – the most recent against Fulham (2-1).
This explains why the men from Stamford Bridge are being pushed into the underdog role against one of the best home teams.
Of all the current Premier League teams, only Liverpool (46) have taken more points from their previous 20 Premier League home games than the Magpies (43).
Eddie Howe and his players have already won once against Chelsea at St. James Park this season. On the way to their first title in 70 years, Newcastle won their home game against the Blues 2-0 in the fourth round.
Just like the last time these two teams met, I expect at least two goals from the home side. Most likely, Alexander Isak will also have his feet in the game again.
The Swedish attacker has been on a real run since the beginning of December, scoring the most goals in the league (19). Isak has scored on each of the previous three matchdays and is the clear target man in Eddie Howe’s system.
“Alexander Isak scores” would not be a surprise to me. At Winamax you get 1.94x profit for this bet.
The home side’s attacking department has exploded in recent months and has caused a great deal of unrest in the opposition’s penalty areas.
Over the past six matchdays, no team has scored more goals than the Magpies (17). In addition, only Manchester City (40) and Liverpool (39) have scored more goals in their own arenas than Newcastle (38) this season.
Overall, Chelsea (66.60 xG) actually have the slightly better expected offense (Newcastle: 60.66 xG). Following on from this, it makes sense to use this Merkur Bets bonus for odds of 2.38 on “Over 3.5 goals” in the match.
Let’s look back at the recent history of this encounter and focus specifically on the clashes at St. James Park.
Newcastle have won seven of the last eleven meetings against Chelsea at home, including the two most recent encounters (2-0, 4-1).
Newcastle are strong at home and have won five home games in a row recently. The Magpies have won eight of their previous ten PL home games.
Both teams have great potential in attack and can treat the crowd at St. James Park to some great soccer.
My Newcastle Chelsea tip is: Newcastle to score at least two goals
