NBA Playoffs 2023/24, 2nd Round, Game 5, Tuesday, May 15, 2024
Welcome back the Denver Nuggets in the guise of the defending champions. Michael Malone has chosen some interesting tactical tricks for Game 3 and Game 4, which his team has implemented excellently.
For Minnesota, Anthony Edwards continues to play at an amazingly high level, but receives too little support from his teammates. In my Nuggets Timberwolves betting tip, I bet on “Nuggets win (HC +4.5)” at Oddset with odds of 1.95.
The panic meter was in the red zone for Denver after the first two games. It was high time for the reigning champions to show an appropriate reaction.
Michael Malone took advantage of the three-day break after the first two encounters and got his team back to center stage. The Nuggets cranked up their ratings in offense in particular, hitting 55.3 percent from the field in the last two games.
As a team, Denver took several steps forward. Nikola Jokic found his inner scorer (35 points, 15/26 FG), Jamal Murray finally hit the most impossible shots again and Reggie Jackson put up a +/- of +8 in just 9:22 minutes of playing time.
The biggest surprise, however, was Aaron Gordon’s performance. Michael Malone ordered his number 50 out of the zone and thus pulled Rudy Gobert out as a defensive roamer, which opened up important space under the basket. Gordon seemed to have been bathed in confidence and added 27 points (11/12 FG) to the tactical trick.
In addition, the Nuggets have an elite shooter at their disposal in Michael Porter Jr. who is converting 46.8 percent of his threes in the playoffs while averaging just under seven attempts per game!
Minnesota has actually only had one player on court in the last two games who has stood up to the reigning champions: Anthony Edwards.
The 22-year-old has already set a new franchise record for points in a playoff game twice in this series. After his 43-point gala in Game 1, the T-Wolves’ number five scored 44 points in Game 4.
Edwards is averaging 33.25 points per game in this series. If you bet on “Edwards scores over 29.5 points” at Happybet, you have odds of 1.87.
However, Anthony Edwards will not be able to decide this series in favor of his franchise on his own. He needs significantly more support at the offensive end of the court than he has had recently.
Co-star Karl-Anthony Towns scored a total of just 27 points in the last two defeats, took just seven shots in Game 3 and had a miserable rate from the field (5/18) in Game 4, scoring just 13 points.
During three of the first four meetings in this series, the losing team was held to under 100 points. In my Nuggets Timberwolves betting tip, I favor the reigning champions. If you’ve already signed up with Bet365, you can relax and claim the odds of 1.83 for “Timberwolves under 100.5 points.”
Denver has scored over 114.5 points in each of the last two games and got its offense going. Now it’s on to home Ball Arena, where I don’t expect the defending champs to slump.
In the Crazybuzzer app, I have selected the odds of 1.91 for “Nuggets Over 105.5 points” as an alternative to my Nuggets Timberwolves bet.
If the Malone team keeps their hot hand ready, I’m not worried about this bet. Denver hit a strong 13/29 from distance in Game 4 despite their best shooter, Michael Porter Jr. having an off-night (0/2).
I’m not worried about Anthony Edwards in Game 5, but I am about the rest of the T-Wolves. With Minnesota’s star player on the court in Game 4, the Wolves won the match-up by +5.
The Timberwolves took the loss in the 2:40 minutes in which the 22-year-old was not on the court. During that time, the Nuggets had a +13 advantage!
While Edwards hit 64 percent of his field goals and 62.5 percent from downtown, his teammates’ percentages looked significantly weaker. The rest of the team converted just 40 percent of their shot attempts and 30 percent from behind the three-point line.
Rudy Gobert was named Defensive Player of the Year, but is reaching his limits in this series. If the center continues to be pulled out of the zone on defense, his impact on the defensive end is minimized.
On offense, the Frenchman’s skillset is reduced to lobs and dunks. Denver managed to highlight the center’s weaknesses with a “switch-everything defense” and the constant flashing of screen & rolls between Edwards and Gobert.
If Chris Finch doesn’t find an answer to this tactical trick from his opponent, the T-Wolves’ offense remains predictable, giving Denver a clear advantage.
After four games, the series is tied (2-2). Broken down, it’s now a best-of-3 series in which I see the reigning champions having the advantage with their experience and positive development.
Denver has improved significantly in offense and is also getting extremely important minutes from the bench. A perfect example is Game 4, where the Denver bench built a 27-13 advantage over the Timberwolves bench.
Anthony Edwards will be tough to stop, but that doesn’t have to be the Nuggets’ ultimate goal. If they successfully keep the rest of the Timberwolves out of the show, the first home win in this series should be in the cards.
I combine my Nuggets Denver tip with this Oddset bonus and play the odds of 1.95 for “Win Nuggets (HC -4.5) “
