NHL 2023/24 Playoffs, Stanley Cup, Game 2 on Tuesday, 11.06.2024
The opening game of the Stanley Cup Final is behind us! I was able to draw some important statistical and game-analytical conclusions that could help you with my Panthers Oilers prediction for Game 2.
I was able to find out the exact percentage of total wins for a team that started the final with a 1-0 home win.
Even more interesting, however, is my Panthers Oilers betting tip in combination with the new European Championship free bets!
How dominant were the Oilers? Don’t be fooled by the Panthers’ 3-0 win, because it was highly flattering and almost entirely due to an out-of-this-world performance by their own goalie.
Edmonton outshot Florida 32-17 on shots on goal and also had the edge in almost all areas relevant to the game, including in the “big chances” category, where they were ahead 18-6.
Despite their clear superiority in the Amerant Bank Arena, the Canadiens’ undoing can be boiled down to two words: Sergei Bobrovsky
The Panthers’ golie, who stopped every one of the 32 shots fired against him, recorded his 16th shutout in the first game of the Stanley Cup Final – last achieved by Roberto Luongo in 2011.
At 35 years and 262 days, Bobrovsky is also the oldest goaltender to ever open the final with a shutout.
Incidentally, the last goaltender to post a shutout in a final game at age 35 or older was Tim Thomas, who had two shutouts with the Boston Bruins in 2011 at age 37.
Bobrovsky’s performance also made him the first goalie to win a game in the Stanley Cup Final at age 35 or older since Martin Brodeur in 2012.
As a result, the Russian is a “goal-reducing factor” that I can’t discount in my Panthers Oilers prediction. For as much as I like the Oilers offense, Bobrovsky – as was the case in Game 1 – is capable of anything!
Before the opener, I told you about the Oilers’ outstanding qualities on the puck in overtime situations. Having McDavid and Draisaitl on the ice together at 5-on-4 has proven to be a recipe for success in the finals so far.
But surprisingly, Florida was able to defuse every one of the Oilers’ power play situations in Game 1. I’ve already mentioned the outstanding goaltending, but the Flordians’ penalty-killing in general also deserves recognition at this point.
The ability to stop the Oilers from scoring in their strongest discipline is fundamental to winning the title. Data analysts already believe the Panthers are well on their way to winning the Stanley Cup anyway
Eyes on this stat: Teams that won the first game in a best-of-seven Stanley Cup Finals series have an overall series record of 64-20 (.762).
That includes a 51-10 (.836) record when starting at home.
Also of interest: Each of the last three Cup winners won the first game of the Finals.
In Game 2, I again expect a game that will produce few goals. The offensive output of the Floridians was very low with only 18 shots and could just as easily have resulted in no goals.
The reason why the Floridians won the opening game in the end, however, was due not only to the goalkeeper but also to the spectacular individual performance of Sam Bennett, who could also make the difference this time.
The Canadian, who scored four goals in the Eastern Conference Finals, was a real threat in the first game.
He assisted on Rodrigues’ goal, beating the Oilers on a dump-in, and he had 11 of the Panthers’ 63 hits, including a monster hit on McDavid.
Bennett, who injured his hand in the first round, returned against the Bruins and has been one of Florida’s best players since.
You can tell he’s healthy because with two games left in the third round, the second-line center started taking faceoffs again.
He’s also contributing offensively and bringing his usual physical game, so much so that Kane launched a big attack on him in the third period Saturday without even thinking about the puck. As an NHL expert, that makes me realize how much of a pain in the ass he is for the Oilers!
Conclusion: Only three goals were scored in the first game, which is surprisingly few.
Nevertheless, a lot has to happen for Game 2 to suddenly produce more than twice as many goals as the opening game.
Consequently, I decide without hesitation for the betting offer of Bet365 and bet on a maximum return of six goals in my Panthers Oilers betting tip on Tuesday, which incidentally comes with great odds of around 1.57.
My tip: Under 6.5 goals
