The era of Donald Trump as US president came to an end in the fall of 2020 with his narrow defeat in the 2020 presidential election – but a new reign could soon begin. A Trump re-election in 2024 seems more than realistic – despite the numerous indictments and lawsuits.
In most US election 2024 polls and forecasts, however, Trump is ahead against incumbent President Joe Biden – even quite clearly in some cases.
What are the chances of Trump being re-elected in the 2024 US elections? What speaks for Trump in the battle for the White House and what speaks against him?
Will Trump be re-elected in 2024? Will Donald Trump become President of the United States again? Even if this scenario sends shivers down the spine of many, it would be legally possible.
The US constitution limits the reign of a US president to a maximum of two terms. However, nowhere is it written that these two terms of office must immediately follow each other.
And this is not just gray theory, but has already happened once in American history: Grover Cleveland ran again four years after being voted out of office as Democratic president in 1889 and won a second term (1893 to 1897).
A Trump re-election would therefore be possible under the law.
Pro: Trump re-election forecast: Why he can become president again
What are the arguments for Trump’s re-election as US president in 2024?
The main argument for Trump entering the ring for the 2024 presidential election is his poll ratings.
Despite everything, his popularity among the target group and among Republicans remains unbroken – no matter how many charges are currently being brought against him.
This was also evident in the Republican primaries, which Trump won impressively. His opponents didn’t stand a chance.
But it’s not just within the party that everything is pointing towards Trump’s re-election in 2024, but also in general. Trump was clearly ahead of his arch-enemy and incumbent Joe Biden in all polls and forecasts for the US election.
And in many poll forecasts, he still has a certain lead over Kamala Harris, who will become the Democratic presidential candidate after Biden’s withdrawal
In January 2024, a Trump re-election forecast showed that almost 70 percent of Republicans surveyed answered “yes” to the question “Should Trump become US president again”.
The pendulum also regularly swings in favor of a Trump re-election in 2024 in polls and forecasts in all states. In Texas, if the presidential election had been held in March 2024, a whopping 46% would have voted for Trump and only 41% for Biden. This would have meant that “The Donald” would have won this state, which is hugely important for the US election every time.
And in many other states, too, the Trump re-election 2024 forecasts currently show a (fairly clear) lead.
This shows that even multiple indictments and looming lawsuits are unlikely to stand in the way of Trump’s re-election in 2024. At least as things stand now
Biden, on the other hand, has been weakening in polls and opinion surveys for months. The Democrats have even lost some of the gubernatorial elections in states where Biden won the 2020 presidential election. This plays into the hands of the constantly blustering political clown.
And the fact that Trump has a lot of supporters was already evident in the 2020 presidential election and four years earlier in 2016.
Even in 2020 – a year in which he completely failed to manage the coronavirus crisis and repeatedly made serious mistakes – he did not suffer a resounding defeat in the presidential election against Biden. On the contrary. It was close. Very close.
In the 2020 US election, despite his defeat and disastrous forecasts and polls, Trump actually received over 7 million (!) more votes than in his surprising election victory in 2016!
This means that over 70 million Americans voted for Trump in 2020: That is – after Joe Biden with almost 75 million – the second-best result in a presidential election in all of American history!
Contra: This is why there will be no Trump 2024 re-election
Many will look back on Donald Trump’s first term as US President with a shudder. The year 2020 in particular, with its disastrous coronavirus management, is still fresh in everyone’s mind.
And: Trump was voted out of office in the 2020 US election. He was replaced by a man who is as exciting as a sip of warm water.
That shows: US citizens were so fed up with Trump and his constant hatred of everything and everyone (except himself). If even a Joe Biden is supposed to win just so that Donald Trump is gone. That really says it all.
There are three main reasons why a Trump re-election forecast for 2024 speaks against another victory for the loud-mouthed political bully.
1.frustration: An important reason that speaks against a new four-year term for the US president in the Trump re-election forecasts for 2024: the frustration of the population.
Mismanagement in the coronavirus pandemic, unemployment, racist demonstrations and police violence were just the biggest issues that severely frustrated the US population in the 2020 election year. Now there are also various investigations by the public prosecutor’s office.
It is therefore more than conceivable that those Trump voters from 2016 who are not “hardcore Trumpists” – i.e. once moderate sympathizers – either switched camps and voted for Joe Biden due to the high level of frustration and disappointment over broken promises, or did not go to the polls at all in protest.
The question is: What will it be like in 2024 if Trump campaigns for almost a year as the Republican presidential candidate?
2. social conflicts: The USA has never been as divided as it is today – rich and poor, black and white.
The UN United States of America is the result of the Trump policies of the last four years. Many Americans therefore continue to long for peace, stability and reliability. For a calm, empathetic president and not an impulsive bully.
That’s what they got with Joe Biden. It can be assumed that many Americans appreciate Biden’s calm – and for many, sometimes too calm – manner.
There is also a clear rejection of a Trump 2024 re-election worldwide. In most countries around the world, Joe Biden is considered much more popular than the controversial former president.
3. The incumbent’s advantage: Two historical statistics show how unlikely a Trump re-election in 2024 could be.
There have been 18 elections since the Second World War, and only four incumbent presidents have been voted out of office: Gerald Ford in 1976, Jimmy Carter in 1980, George Bush in 1992 and Donald Trump in 2020. In contrast, the incumbent has been re-elected eight times.
This means that, like his successful predecessors, Joe Biden has the advantage of incumbency. Following his retirement, Kamala Harris, previously Biden’s deputy, enjoys this advantage.
Harris in a duet with still-President Biden has the advantage and, in principle, the opportunity to determine issues and satisfy the electorate. Trump also had this advantage on his side at the start of 2020 – but then came coronavirus and Trump stumbled. In the end, he fell
Trump re-election 2024 forecast – who does the electoral system favor?
The President of the United States of America will be the person who wins the most electoral votes in the 2024 US election.
Each US state is counted individually, and whoever is ahead there is awarded all the electoral votes in that state (“winner takes all”) – their number is based on the number of inhabitants.
While California, for example, sends 55 people to the ballot on December 14, 2020, Maine is only represented in the Electoral College with 4 votes, Arizona with 11, Texas with 38 and Pennsylvania with 20.
Results of the US elections since 1992
With this electoral system it is clear: For Trump it depends on the swing states – the strategically very valuable swing voter states. Whoever is ahead there will ultimately win the US election in 2024.
In 2016, Trump won 7 out of 11 swing states – including the largest and most important ones such as Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio.
Overall, the Republicans in this system often use their electoral potential more efficiently than the Democrats.
In the 2016 election, Trump benefited so much from this system against Hillary Clinton that he was ultimately elected the 45th US President with 304:227 votes from the Electoral College…
… even though he received more than 2 percent LESS votes overall!
