Paris Saint-Germain – FC Barcelona betting tip
The championship in the French Ligue 1 is already so securely in PSG’s pocket that coach Luis Enrique was able to rest most of his top players in the duel against Clermont (1:1) last matchday.
For Barca, the La Liga title is now only theoretically possible and the runners-up spot is still a long way from being wrapped up. As guests at the Parc de Princes, the Catalans are clearly the underdogs.
Anyone can easily work out the reasons for this. Barca have not won away from home in three Champions League games. PSG, on the other hand, are still unbeaten at home in this edition of the CL (3 S, 1 U).
For my PSG Barcelona betting tip, I have decided against a classic three-way bet and prefer to concentrate on the number of PSG goals.
In his first clash against his former club, Luis Enrique can rely on the high individual class of the hosts’ attack and set the Spanish representative plenty of tasks.
To put it in a nutshell: I’m playing a bet on “PSG over 1.5 goals” at Oddset, which will earn me 1.80 times my stake if successful.
The bookmaker’s forecast
There have already been 12 meetings between PSG and Barcelona. Six of these twelve encounters have been played at the Parc de Princes, of which “Les Parisiens” have only lost one.
In their sports betting apps, the bookmakers are offering odds of up to 1.98 for a home win, putting Barca in the underdog position with maximum odds of 3.75.
The odds for a draw are only slightly higher. If you stick to the bookmaker Betano, you can get the best odds of 3.85 for a game without a winner.
A game with “both teams to score” is almost certain for the bookmakers. Recently, both teams have scored at least one goal in eight out of ten meetings. With this NEObet bonus, you can take the odds of 1.62 for another duel with goals on both sides
Analysis: PSG vs Barcelona
Barcelona have not been the best team in European soccer for some time. The Blaugrana are in the quarter-finals of the Champions League for the first time since 2020.
The Catalans’ last appearance in a CL quarter-final went down in the history books, but in an undesirable manner. The Culés suffered their heaviest defeat in Europe’s top competition against FC Bayern Munich (2:8).
The hearts of PSG supporters were shattered within the last three group games when “Les Rouges-et-Bleus” were unable to give their fans another victory. The two CL round of 16 clashes against Real Sociedad, which PSG won (2-0, 2-1), were an initial reconciliation.
Barca should be prepared for a big challenge at the Parc de Princes. Only one of the last twelve CL home games ended in defeat for “Les Parisiens” (9 S, 2 U).
The Catalans’ defense in particular could become a critical factor in this pairing. The Blaugrana have not conceded a goal in any of their last eight knockout games in the top flight!
If Xavi Hernandez cannot find a suitable solution to the high individual quality of PSG’s attack, FC Barcelona could face a fifth elimination from their last six European quarter-final appearances.
The visitors’ recent record against the future French champions is also likely to worry Barca supporters. The visitors have not managed more than one win from their last four head-to-head meetings.
After the 3:1 win against SSC Napoli in the second leg of the round of 16, FC Barcelona were able to breathe a little easier. On the other hand, I won’t disregard just two wins from their previous five CL appearances.
Odds analysis
The announcement by Xavi Hernandez that he will step down at the end of the season has seemingly re-energized the Catalans.
Following this press conference, the Spanish top team has not lost a game. If you want to use your Crazybuzzer free bet for a “Barcelona (DNB) win” based on this, you can plan on odds of 2.52.
However, I would strongly advise against this betting option. Barcelona have only won three out of eleven away games in the Champions League recently.
The current season in the Champions League definitely does not point to an improvement in this record. Rather, three winless CL away games in a row suggest a manifestation of this tendency
Strong support from the Parc de Princes
At first glance, PSG do not have a great record at European level this season. Only four of the first eight Champions League games saw “Les Parisiens” emerge victorious.
However, the right context paints a different portrait of the home side. After the group stage, PSG successfully defended against Real Sociedad’s unpleasant pressing and ultimately won both duels (2-0, 2-1).
The venue is just as relevant. PSG have won nine of their last twelve CL home games at the Parc de Princes. In addition, the French side have yet to lose at home in this edition of the top flight (3 wins, 1 draw).
The paying crowd often got their money’s worth in the French capital, lashing the French league leaders to over 1.5 goals in three of their four home appearances.
Kylian Mbappé is the prince at the Parc des Princes
No team at national level is adequately prepared for the immense quality of Kylian Mbappé. The attacker has already scored 24 goals in Ligue 1 – the second-highest scorer is Jonathan David with just 16.
Anyone assuming that these figures will be significantly lower in the top flight is mistaken. In eight appearances, the hosts’ top attacker has already scored six times.
His focus so far has primarily been on the French side’s home games. Mbappé has scored at least one goal in each of the four CL home games played, meaning he has set up four of his six goals in the top flight at home.
There is also no sign of any fear of the big moments from the Parisians’ top star. Instead, Kylian Mbappé was responsible for three of the four goals in the round of 16 against Real Sociedad.
PSG coach Lius Enrique rested his players last weekend, rotating almost every top player onto the bench and thus giving his stars the necessary breather to go into this quarter-final with maximum freshness
The aforementioned weakness of the Catalans away from home is an important issue for me in this clash.
It is not without reason that Intertops and Co. are giving maximum odds of 3.75 for a Blaugrana win. After the visitors were victorious in their first away game against Porto (1:0), Barca have not won another CL away game (1 draw, 2 defeats).
A defeat against Shakthar Donetsk (0:1) was followed by another defeat on the final group matchday against Royal Antwerp (2:3). Even in the first leg of the round of 16 against Napoli (1:1), Xavi Hernandez’s team did not leave the pitch as winners
PSG have allowed the fewest passes per defensive action in the top flight so far (8.7) and could disrupt the visitors’ build-up play decisively.
The Catalans have shown far too often this season that they are extremely error-prone.
In the Primera Division, FC Barcelona have collected a string of white vests of late (5 in a row), but have faced three out of five teams from the bottom half of the table
My tip:
PSG absolutely must win the first leg in order to gain the necessary cushion to make progression in Barcelona realistic.
The home side’s attack is at a much higher level at the Parc des Princes than away from home, which is also reflected in Kylian Mbappé’s numbers (4/6 CL goals at home).
Barca have recently had major problems away from home in European competition and could be overwhelmed by PSG’s speed and dribbling strength.
My PSG Barcelona prediction: Paris will score over 1.5 goals
