Bundesliga 19th matchday, Saturday, 25/01/2025 at 3:30 pm
When I think of some of Florian Wirtz’s dribbling this season, I get goosebumps. The German international has once again raised his level of play and, above all, developed a much greater desire to score.
Together with Patrick Schick, Wirtz has developed an almost telepathic connection that calls into question whether Viktor Boniface can easily slip back into the starting eleven.
But now to this encounter on matchday 19 of the Bundesliga. Leverkusen are guests in Leipzig and emerge from my RB Leipzig Leverkusen betting tip as the obvious favorite.
Defensively, the Red Bulls have rarely been as vulnerable as they have been recently, conceding “Over 1.5 goals conceded” in four consecutive Bundesliga fixtures.
The team around coach Marco Rose must also assume that against the Werkself offense, which brings me directly to my RB Leipzig Leverkusen tip. At Interwetten, I came across odds of 1.95 for a “Leverkusen win”.
The betting providers’ prediction?
At the beginning of the season, it might not have looked like it, but now it is possible. Leverkusen is fighting to defend the title and is increasingly closing the gap on Bayern Munich.
Leipzig is quite a way off the level of these two top teams and is already ten points behind B04 and 14 points behind Munich.
That’s a short explanation, but no less correct, which is why Leipzig is put in the role of the underdog in their own stadium with win odds of up to 3.75. Leverkusen receives a maximum of 1.95 odds for the win in the best sports betting apps.
KI prediction RB Leipzig vs Leverkusen: That’s what ChatGPT tips
As usual, ChatGPT is at my side with help and advice when I’m choosing my picks. So in this case, the old tin can has created a Leipzig Leverkusen AI prediction, which we will now take a closer look at.
For the high-risk tip, the AI selected the bet “Leverkusen to win with handicap -2”. The odds are great, but I don’t like the bet. I consider a 3-0 or 4-1 for the Werkself to be extremely unrealistic.
And I can’t avoid grinding my teeth with the medium risk either. “Over 3.5 goals” is quite daring considering that both teams were in action in the Champions League during the week and could play with the handbrake on, especially in the first half.
More interesting is the bet “Both teams score”, which ChatGPT suggests as a low-risk tip. A 1-1 or a 2-1 or 1-2 is easily conceivable.
Analysis: RB Leipzig vs Leverkusen
The hosts are far from the title race this season, and quite rightly so. Leipzig have won just three of their previous ten Bundesliga games and have recently had to struggle with major gaps in their defense.
What looked like a major strength at the beginning of the season has now become the complete opposite. RBL have conceded two or more goals in four consecutive Bundesliga encounters.
Marco Rose even pondered whether at least three goals had been conceded in exactly half of the eight previous matches in the German top flight. They conceded two goals against VfL Bochum on the last matchday.
While the hosts have somehow been going around in circles lately, Leverkusen’s route has been straight ahead. In this form, B04 should also be able to dominate this supposed top game and get revenge for the 3-2 defeat in the last encounter.
Odds Analysis
RB Leipzig have won two Bundesliga home games in a row (4-2 vs. Werder Bremen, 2-1 vs. Frankfurt) and, with these six points, at least remained in the top 5 in the Bundesliga.
Home games are the reason why RBL has not left the European places long ago. On average, the Saxons collected 2.13 points per home game. For me, that is the only real reason why Leverkusen is not more clearly in the role of favorites.
Xabi Alonso’s system, however, provides a framework with which Leverkusen can dominate this game even with different line-ups. I’m tempted to place this Winamax bonus on “Leverkusen to win (HC -1)” at odds of 3.20.
RB Leipzig vs. Leverkusen: Back in the extra gear
Leverkusen have only won four of their first ten Bundesliga games this season. It was quickly thought that the Werkself would have no real chance of defending the title against the improved Munich team this season.
However, Xabi Alonso and his team have returned to a mode similar to that of the championship season. B04 recently won eight Bundesliga games in a row, dominated again in the best championship fashion, and are playing the second-best season in club history.
In attack, Wirtz and Schick are an unstoppable duo, accounting for the majority of the 44 goals scored this season. The only time the reigning German champions have scored more goals after 18 matchdays was in the previous season (50).
Lost Orientation
The Red Bulls have to be careful not to lose sight of their minimum goal. Leipzig are now only in fifth place in the table and would currently miss out on direct qualification for the premier league.
The slump in recent weeks and months did not come as a complete surprise. RBL has only won three of the last ten Bundesliga matches and has now conceded 29.6 expected goals. Marco Rose and his team can count themselves lucky that they are not lower down the table.
Only six teams have conceded more expected goals this season and only two teams (Gladbach, Kiel) have allowed more shots against than the Saxons (273). I’m not averse to a soccer bet on “Leverkusen over 2.5 goals”.
Standards could be a pretty big issue in this pairing. Leverkusen, with 8.32 xG, is the best offensive team after set-pieces and has continuously improved this element under Xabi Alonso.
Defending set-pieces is precisely the area in which the Red Bulls are weakest. RBL conceded the most expected goals from set-pieces (7.25 xGA) after Wolfsburg (9.09 xGA).
With only five goals conceded, Leipzig have so far done much better in this category. It could have been significantly more, as most of the shots allowed after a stationary ball show (93).
In addition, opposing finishes after a free kick, a corner or similar take a higher place with Leipzig than with any other Bundesliga club (34.07 percent of the shots allowed).
My RB Leipzig Leverkusen Tip:
Leverkusen is in great form, has the better structure in the game and, at the top, also has the better individual players on the field.
Although Leipzig is still among the top five teams in the Bundesliga this season, it is in danger of losing its connection to the elite of German football, at least for this season.
In addition, Leverkusen should not only be able to create some great chances from open play, but should also be able to pose a great danger from set pieces.
Leverkusen wins against RB Leipzig!