Bundesliga 16th matchday, Saturday, 12/01/2025 at 3:30 pm
The new year starts with a real challenge for Werder Bremen: an away game in Leipzig. In addition, the guests will certainly not be traveling with their strongest lineup.
With Justin Njinmah and Keke Topp, they are missing two important strikers who normally cause danger in the opposing penalty area.
Leipzig, on the other hand, are entering the game with sufficient self-confidence, not least thanks to the solid position in the table in which the Saxons were able to spend the winter. The question is whether SVW will find a suitable way to hold their own against the favored hosts despite the absences in the offense.
My RB Leipzig Wolfsburg betting tip tries to find the right answers to all these questions.
In addition, I will show you statistics that explain why a halftime/end result bet along the lines of “1/1” could make a lot more sense than speculating on a late collapse by Werder…
Personnel-wise, Leipzig are better off – especially since the Bulls have just signed Noah Okafor on loan – but statistically, they also have the upper hand against Bremen.
After all, RB Leipzig have not lost any of their previous seven Bundesliga home games against the northerners.
Only against Freiburg, Augsburg and Mönchengladbach have the Saxons played more Bundesliga home games without defeat.
However, last season was the first in which Leipzig could not win at home against Bremen, as it was “only” 1-1 at the final whistle in May 2024.
Nevertheless, the Red Bulls remain the favorites according to my RB Leipzig Werder Bremen prediction – and the personnel reinforcements should only increase the chances of a home win even further!
The betting providers’ prediction?
The RB Leipzig Werder Bremen odds on the Merkur Bet app are clearly in favor of the Saxons. With values of 1.75 on average for the home win, other bookmakers are apparently also quite sure that RBL will win the game.
A draw, on the other hand, is valued at 4.10, which indicates that the probability of a draw is considered rather low. The odds for an away win for Bremen are even higher at 4.30, which underlines the relatively clear role of the underdog.
In short, the mistrust of Bremen in the absence of their two injured offensive players is apparently huge on the betting markets!
Consequently, I politely asked ChatGPT for suggestions and had an RB Leipzig Werder Bremen AI forecast prepared with betting suggestions of varying risks.
Personally, I find the high-risk suggestion, “Sesko scores first”, quite exciting. It’s a high risk, of course, but with odds of around 6.10, it’s definitely a justified risk, especially considering that the Slovenian is finally back in good form.
However, I can’t really recommend the next tip, “Over 3.5 goals in the game”.
None of the last four direct duels have exceeded this mark and with the missing key players at Werder Bremen, it should be difficult to get more than three goals on Saturday.
On the other hand, I much prefer the last and supposedly safe RB Leipzig Werder Bremen tip, “Last goal Leipzig”.
Since I don’t think Werder Bremen will score at all, this is an attractive bet for me that is coupled with an acceptable risk.
Analysis: RB Leipzig vs Werder Bremen
RB Leipzig may have spent the winter break in fourth place in the Bundesliga, but coach Marco Rose is still under pressure.
This is mainly due to a poor run of form in their last seven league games, in which Leipzig have suffered four defeats and conceded a total of 14 goals. In particular, the 5-1 defeat to Bayern Munich revealed various defensive problems.
Despite these setbacks, RBL can rely on an interesting statistic on Saturday: Marco Rose has never lost to Werder Bremen as a coach (5 wins, 3 draws).
But Bremen are traveling to Leipzig in good form on Saturday. Ole Werner’s team celebrated three consecutive Bundesliga victories just before the turn of the year and could now even overtake RBL in the table with another win.
Bremen are particularly strong away from home: the north Germans have picked up 16 of their 25 points in away stadiums, and their nine away wins in 2024 were the most since 2006.
The SVW are therefore going into this clash with increased confidence, especially since they came out of both meetings with Leipzig last season without defeat (2 draws).
Odds Analysis
I really like the 4.10 odds on the bwin app for a 1-0, 2-0 or 3-0 win for RB Leipzig.
In the first half of the season, Leipzig repeatedly showed that they were only able to secure narrow victories against teams that should have been dominated by them on paper (Heidenheim, Mainz, Kiel).
Especially against a team like Bremen, which has a solid defense but is missing two important players up front, one of these three results seems quite possible.
The “1/1” bet on Leipzig winning after leading at half time also delights me.
For this specific half-time/final score combination, you can expect odds of 2.65 on the markets with RB Leipzig Werder Bremen.
Leipzig often start the games very powerfully and could take the lead early on.
Taking the lead at half-time seems to be the only realistic option for a home win anyway, as Bremen’s defense ramps up its performance after the break…
RB Leipzig vs. Werder Bremen odds: SVW stable after the break!
If Leipzig score a goal, it will probably be early on, because the statistics speak for themselves: Bremen’s defense is becoming more and more stable as the game progresses.
Note: Of the 13 goals that SV Werder Bremen have conceded in away games this Bundesliga season, only two have been scored after half-time.
This shows that the defense of the northerners makes hardly any mistakes in the second half and is difficult to crack. For RBL, this means that the Saxons have to take their chances early on, before Werder has finally consolidated defensively.
Werder Bremen: That darn first game of the year…
There is a lot to suggest that RB Leipzig will take control at the start, especially since Werder Bremen have always had difficulties after the winter break in the past…
In the last three Bundesliga seasons, SVW have not been able to win the first game after the winter break (1 draw, 2 defeats).
The last time the club started the new year without a win four times in a row was between 1989 and 1992.
Nevertheless, Bremen should not be underestimated. The team is currently having its best Bundesliga season in 13 years and has 25 points after the first 15 games.
In addition, Bremen – as already mentioned – has won the last three league games, which personally prevents me from agreeing with the bookmakers and also expecting a clear victory for Leipzig…
Bremen’s away record is particularly impressive: they have celebrated nine away wins in 2024, which is the second-highest number of away wins in a calendar year in the club’s history.
Despite the absences of some key players, Bremen will certainly not go down without a fight. It will be a difficult game for both teams, in which Leipzig can be happy if it ultimately gets the three points at all.
Bremen, on the other hand, has so far failed to strengthen its squad to compensate for the absences in the forward line.
Incidentally, although I have opted for the RB Leipzig Werder Bremen odds from a different bookmaker, it is not only SVW fans with a weakness for exciting football bets who would have good reason to register with Bet365 these days.
The bookmaker impresses with an extremely high away win rate and generally great offers for the 16th Bundesliga match day. Every sports betting fan will definitely find something here.
RB Leipzig – Werder Bremen tip
This will be a very close game, that’s for sure. Personally, I would even choose the draw rate rather than a general home victory for Leipzig.
If anything, the hosts will have the upper hand on Saturday in the Red Bull Arena with a narrow result like 1:0, 2:0 or possibly 2:1.
If Bremen had a stronger forward line and weren’t plagued by injuries, I would even think they could get a point. As it is, though, everything points to a laborious victory for the Saxons.
My RB Leipzig Werder Bremen betting tip: RBL win & under 3.5 goals.