UEFA Super Cup Final, Wednesday, 14.08.2024 at 21:00
My Real Madrid Atalanta Bergamo betting tip is not just about bookmaker predictions.
In fact, many soccer fans with a penchant for sports betting are also wondering whether possibly the best player in the world will make his debut for his new club on Wednesday.
We are talking about none other than Kylian Mbappé, who left Paris in the summer and seems to have found his true love in the Spanish capital – and as we all know, he wears white (Los Blancos).
Equipped with a good sports betting bonus, I will soon find out whether there is any truth to my theory that the northern Italians are true “giant-killers”
Spanish clubs have dominated the UEFA Super Cup in recent years. Nine of the last ten editions have featured a La Liga club, with some finals even featuring two.
The Madrilenians beat Eintracht Frankfurt in Finland in 2022, and now they have to beat the Bergamo side in Poland – in the capital Warsaw, to be precise.
In my Real Madrid Atalanta Bergamo betting tip, however, I clearly express my doubts about the widespread assumption of the German bookmakers that the Spaniards will prevail relatively confidently against “little Bergamo” (Leverkusen sends its regards).
The bookmakers’ forecast?
Now we come to the Real Madrid Atalanta Bergamo odds already mentioned, which in a way are the salt that make my planned soccer bet on the Bet365 app really interesting.
With average odds of 1.53, a win for the Spaniards is much more likely than a win for the northern Italians.
The win odds of around 5.75 offered by most sports betting providers for the Bergamo side, on the other hand, correspond to a mathematical probability of just 17.4%.
Analysis: Real Madrid vs Atalanta Bergamo
Atalanta have strengthened considerably in the transfer window. They have signed Charles De Ketelaere permanently and also secured the services of Mateo Retegui. In addition, Ben Godfrey, Nicolo Zaniolo and Ibrahim Sulemana are now also part of the team.
It is particularly exciting that Retegui could possibly make his debut on Wednesday due to the long injury layoff of Gianluca Scamacca, who is out for several months with a cruciate ligament injury.
Giorgio Scalvini is also on the road to recovery from a similar injury, but should return before the end of the year.
Meanwhile, Teun Koopmeiners, who is being courted by Juventus and Liverpool, has gone on “training strike” and is unlikely to play another game for Bergamo.
That’s the only aspect that makes me a little unsure about my Real Madrid Atalanta Bergamo prediction
Real, meanwhile, have played some “show test matches” against absolute top clubs such as Milan (0:1), Barcelona (1:2) and Chelsea (2:1), in which the financial aspect was probably in the foreground.
However, there is no doubt that this team will deliver from the first competitive game of the new season. But will it be enough to win against such an unruly opponent?
The fact that Bergamo, after their 3-0 win over Leverkusen in the Europa League final, can outplay even world-class teams with just 42% possession is also undisputed
Quota analysis
For the exciting clash between Real Madrid and Atalanta, I’ve come up with three betting options that might interest you.
For example, consider betting on a 0-0 draw at the break, which has been assigned odds of around 3.25 – as both teams may want to start cautiously.
Another option would be the famous Double Chance X2 variant at 2.50. This bet secures you a payout in the event of extra time or an Atalanta win, which is certainly within the realms of possibility given the quality of the visitors.
And if you are speculating on a low-scoring game, then “Under 2.5 goals” at 2.10 is also worth considering. After all, with the solid defenses of both teams, it could be difficult for spectators to get many goals
Mbappe: And he’s probably playing after all…
Real Madrid are expected to field their preferred starting eleven for the upcoming game against Bergamo in Warsaw, with only experienced defender David Alaba still missing due to his long-term cruciate ligament injury.
Kylian Mbappé is expected to lead the line, having already been fully integrated into team training following his initial break granted by the club after Euro 2024.
Incidentally, Mbappé’s arrival has raised speculation over the future of Brazilian wingers Rodrygo and Vinícius Júnior, with the latter reportedly turning down a huge offer from the Saudi Pro League.
Atalanta have improved a lot since 2021
As part of my research into the Super Cup final, I took a closer look at the only international clash between the two teams to date. Incidentally, I’m referring to the last 16 of the Champions League in the 2020/21 season.
Back then, Real Madrid won 3:1 at home after a 1:0 away win in Bergamo. However, as a long-time supporter of the northern Italians, I am amazed at how much this team has changed in terms of personnel since then
In the starting line-up for the second leg against Real Madrid three years ago and the recently won Europa League final against Leverkusen, there is only one player who started both games – left-back Djimsiti.
Bergamo have therefore attracted a number of top-class players in recent years through clever transfers, which have made the team a contender for the Serie A title in 2024/25 and at the same time significantly upgraded them
I also expect Wednesday’s match to be uneventful at first, as it’s the first competitive game of the season for both teams.
It’s unlikely that the Madrilenians have already reached their best form anyway. Especially as last season was a long one and many key players were also involved in Euro 2024.
In short: If Atalanta have already beaten Leverkusen, then a win over Real Madrid is not inconceivable under these circumstances either
My tip:
Both teams could take it easy in the first half due to a lack of match fitness. The absence of Koopmeiners, on the other hand, weakens Bergamo considerably and could affect them especially when initiating promising tempo counter-attacks.
If Real Madrid win, it will probably be by a narrow margin of 1-0 or 2-0.
Nevertheless, Atalanta should never be underestimated – they are always good for a surprise and could turn the game on its head at any time with a single excellently executed move.
Therefore, my Real Madrid Atalanta tip is: Bergamo will not leave the pitch as losers after 90 minutes
