Supercup Spain, semi-final, Thursday, 09.01.2025 at 20:00
Somewhat unexpectedly, Mallorca are one of the top six teams in La Liga (30 points). The opening game of the season was already a complete success with a point against Real Madrid (1:1).
For the upcoming semi-final in the Spanish Supercopa, I think the visitors have a good chance in the Real Madrid Mallorca betting tip and am playing with Winamax odds of 1.73 for “win Mallorca with handicap +2”.
Last year, Mallorca reached the Copa del Rey final and only lost on penalties to Athletic Bilbao (3:5). Such a run is out of the question this season. Los Bermellones were eliminated by Pontevedra (0:3) at the start of the year.
Real Madrid, on the other hand, easily maneuvered their way into the fourth round with a 5:0 win against Spanish fourth division side Minera.
However, the odds on the Whites to win are a little too low for my liking. A home win only leads to 1.40-fold profit and, in contrast to the odds of the visitors (7.80), does not offer much value.
Instead of speculating on a resounding victory for Madrid, I would rather invest a sports betting bonus in a “double chance X2”. Such a bet would have been successful at the beginning of this season (1:1).
Over the past two years, this duel has been played four times and the results have always been close.
The Spanish league leaders have won only two of the four previous meetings with Mallorca (1-0, 1-0), allowed themselves a draw (1-1) and even suffered a defeat (0-1).
It is easy to see the low number of goals in these pairings, which have each remained “Under 2.5 goals” in the match. A NEO.bet free bet on “Under 2.5 goals” makes sense with the current odds of 2.38.
Of course, the new customer bonus from Winamax also makes sense. Simply click on the graphic, register and collect up to 100 euros for your bets.
Mallorca rarely create several big chances from the game, which is why they have only scored 19 goals in 19 league games.
The Mallorquinistas’ great strength is the resting balls anyway. No other team in the Spanish top flight has scored more expected goals from set pieces (6.76 xG).
Jagoba Arrasate’s team are only able to finish sixth because of their uncompromising defending. Malloca has only conceded 21 goals so far.
Compared to the expected goals conceded (20.87 xGA), this figure is certainly appropriate and is further proof of their excellent work against the ball.
We will rarely see Arrasate’s team pressing high up the pitch against Real Madrid, but that is also part of Mallorca’s usual game plan.
The visitors conceded the lowest percentage of shots from inside their own penalty area in the league (47%) and forced their opponents to take the highest percentage of shots from outside their own penalty area (47%).
If you’re not afraid to take a risk, you could even try betting on “Real Madrid under 1.5 goals” and have a chance of winning 2.70 times.
The visitors have hardly suffered any significant defeats this season. Mallorca have only lost two of their 19 league games by more than one goal. There was also the defeat in the Copa del Rey, but I’m putting that aside as a slip-up for now.
Real Madrid are still holding their own in the title race and are currently leading the table, but the reigning Champions League winners have rarely exuded confidence of late.
Against Valencia (2:1), the Whites had to turn a game around when they were outnumbered, which they only managed to do with a little help.
In addition, Ancelotti and his team drew against Rayo Vallecano (3:3) and lost to Athletic Bilbao (1:2) during the last five La Liga matchdays. Add to that the demanding schedule in January with several games in a very short space of time.
In the first half in particular, I expect a match with few big chances. Mallorca have kept the game under 1.5 goals at the break in 15 of their 19 La Liga games.
In fact, nine La Liga games involving the sixth-placed team in the table did not even contain a goal before the break.
With the prospect of a possible final in the Spanish Supercopa, I expect highly motivated visitors for whom no investment will be too high.
Real Madrid, on the other hand, will probably be keen to reach the final with as little effort as possible, as there are other tough games in the back of their minds.
Mallorca have won two of their last three competitive games and fought out a 1-1 draw against Real Madrid on the first matchday of the season.
Of course, I also favor the hosts, but I can imagine a close game right up to the last second.
With these thoughts I leave you with my Real Madrid Mallorca tip for a “Victory Mallorca with handicap +2”
