La Liga, Saturday, 25.05.2024
The last matchday in the Spanish Primera Division will take place without any prominent themes. The match between Real Sociedad and Atletico Madrid also lacks big goals.
Diego Simeone fulfilled his duty with the Rojiblancos and once again qualified for the top flight. Real Sociedad will have to make do with the Europa League next season.
In my Real Sociedad Atletico Madrid betting tip, I have decided to bet on “Both teams to score: No” and play it at odds of 2.05 at Oddset.
Only three teams (Real Madrid, Valencia and Mallorca) have taken better care of their own box in their own stadium than Real Sociedad (18 goals conceded).
However, Imanol Alguacil’s charges could have made more of an effort in attack at home. As a result, 26 goals were only enough for eighth place in the home table (30 points).
Atletico Madrid were rarely convincing away from home, collecting just 24 points away from the Civitas Metropolitana and are even listed as underdogs in the sports betting apps with odds of up to 3.00.
Anyone who nevertheless dares to place a free bet on an “Atletico Madrid win” is betting on the continuation of the recent improved results away from home. Atletico have won each of their last two away games without conceding a goal.
However, Real Sociedad have also bounced back at home in the last few months, winning two home games in a row without conceding a goal
As you can probably tell, I’m not expecting any artful waves of attack in my Real Socieadad Atletico Madrid tip, but rather a game with the character of “work in progress”.
Atletico Madrid have only scored 38% of their goals this season away from home and have therefore only scored 38% of their points away from home.
Diego Simeone was incensed by just under 40 per cent of his appearances away from home, as his team failed to score away from home far too often
At least the Colchoneros’ defense has improved away from home recently, keeping a clean sheet in 39 percent of their away games.
La Real’s defense achieved the same mark in their own stadium. However, the home side rarely benefited from this advantage. The hosts only converted 28% of their white vests into a clean sheet.
Nevertheless, these figures show quite clearly why this comparison on the final matchday is suitable for a bet on “Both teams score: No” bet
If you look bluntly at the rate of Atletico’s away games with goals on both sides, it becomes even more obvious. Only 28 percent of the Colchoneros’ visiting appearances resulted in a goal for both participating teams.
The crowd at the Reale Arena saw 44% of games with goals on both sides. Regardless of the venue, La Real’s last five league matches ended with a successful bet on “Both teams to score: No”.
If things go badly for the paying spectators, there might not even be a single goal scored in this game without any relevance at all.
“Under 2.5 goals” is a good guide in my opinion. If you keep an eye on the odds at Bet365, you’ll know that the odds for “Over/Under 2.5 goals” in the match are exactly the same (1.87).
The last few results have mostly leveled out at “Atletico Madrid to win”. Three of the last four league duels have seen the better end for Diego Simeone and his team.
If you include a “DNB variant”, you still get respectable odds of around 2.10, which can definitely be played after four Atletico wins from the five previous league games
The comparison of expected goals clearly goes to the Rojiblancos (60.8 xG). Real Sociedad rarely create promising scoring chances and have only managed 44.9 xG (10).
La Real have created far too few chances this season. Imanol Alguacil has not seen his team create more than 73 chances so far.
If Real Sociedad even have to trot off the field without scoring a goal of their own, you should consider odds of around 3.60 with the betting providers without tax in advance
The exciting thing is that the bookmakers rate “Atletico Madrid won’t score” as even more likely with odds of just over 3.00.
Both Antoine Griezmann (16) and Alvaro Morata (15) have already scored at least 15 goals this season, putting them among the top seven attackers in La Liga.
Mikel Oyarzabal is still Real Sociedad’s top scorer, although he has yet to reach double figures (9)
Both teams have finished several matchdays this season with their heads down and without scoring.
At the same time, both backlines have been performing at a high level again recently and have repeatedly kept their opponents away from their own goal.
My Real Sociedad Atletico Madrid betting tip is: Neither team will score
