La Liga, Sunday, 18.08.2024 at 19:00
The ball is rolling again in the Primera Division! In Spain’s top division, the teams want to start the new season as well as possible, including two from the “Let’s play another draw” category.
There were a few of these in 2023/24, two of which I will now deal with in my Real Sociedad Rayo Vallecano betting tip. Both also very regularly agree on a draw in direct duels, and that’s exactly why I think the draw bet is also suitable for Sunday!
Real Sociedad is a top team in Spain, so far so good. However, the competition is so strong with Real Madrid, Barcelona, Atletico Madrid, Betis Sevilla, Villarreal and often a surprise candidate that the top flight is still rarely possible.
Last season, they only managed sixth place, partly because 16 wins in 38 rounds did not exactly lead to top odds. How did the team start exactly one year ago? Exactly, with three draws in a row!
The Basques have shared a total of twelve points, six of which came at home. Speaking of home statistics, since the current season opener is also taking place at home, I can point out an interesting aspect.
In 2023/24, exactly ONE game was lost in front of their own fans until mid-February, and in the 0:1 against FC Barcelona, the decisive goal was conceded in stoppage time
Of course, just looking at the past season is not enough for a meaningful analysis. Coach Imanol Alguacil, who has been in charge since 2018, welcomed several new players.
Luka Susic arrived from Salzburg, Sergio Gomez from Manchester City and Javi Lopez from Alaves. The defense also had to be upgraded, as top defender Robin Le Normand moved to Atletico Madrid
The fans still don’t really know whether this is enough to replace the international. But they will have breathed a sigh of relief when they heard that Rayo Vallecano will be our first opponents this season.
We haven’t lost in eleven head-to-head matches. But since I only count five wins at the same time, it’s clear that it’s not uncommon for the whistle to blow without a winner! In 2023/24 there was one 2:2, the other 0:0
If we look back at the last 14 matches, we can see that only two of them had more than one goal difference. In other words: it’s always very close here.
What have the results been like at home in recent years? 0:0, 2:1, 1:0, 2:2, 2:1, 0:1, 2:3 – you really can’t complain about a lack of excitement here. Which way are our bookmakers thinking?
The club from the capital was just above the line a few months ago, with just eight wins. Since I’m picking the draw tip on Sunday, the following aspect is also important: 14 draws
29 goals in 38 matches, the big problem was clearly the offense. It’s hard to believe that the team only lost two of their first twelve matches in 2023/24, even drawing four times.
It could also be relevant that the “both teams score” bet would have been correct 13 times, but not 15 times. It gets even more interesting, because we had to do without it 16 times away from home!
Eleven goals in 19 games, there really is a lot to improve offensively. The fact that veteran Radamel Falcao is no longer with us is not good news at this point.
Real Sociedad needlessly dropped a few points last season, the main reason being too many draws. My analysis of Rayo Vallecano shows exactly the same thing.
Now the two teams face each other directly, and what is immediately noticeable in the direct comparison? Exactly, the fact that there are very often draws here too! So did I even have a choice when it came to my betting selection?
The Basques may have a better individual line-up and Vallecano may not be particularly strong away from home, but both are still lacking rhythm. I have therefore decided to trust the historical facts and say:
There’s a point for both
