Ligue 1, Matchday 30, Friday, 18.04.2025 at 20:45
An exciting duel in the lower half of Ligue 1, where the hosts are surprisingly finding themselves this season. Eleventh place is obviously not good enough for Stade Rennes. But once again, they will miss out on European qualification this season.
We can expect some departures. First of all, the team needs to finish the season on a high note. After a strong 5-1 win against Le Havre, I expect at least a brace from the men in red and black at home.
Accordingly, I’m going for “Over 1.5 goals Rennes” in my Rennes Nantes prediction at Merkur Bets.
Just eleven wins from 29 games is far too few for a team that wants to be in contention for a European place. They have only picked up points once on two occasions, no team has drawn less often, and at home they have drawn 15 of their 15 games.
Is this a case for the “Double Chance 12”? Statistically, yes, but I feel the bet is too risky. The last point they shared was six months ago, a 1-1 draw against Brest, shortly after the same result against Lens.
Rennes is ahead with odds of 1.80 at our top-rated bookmakers, we get 3.70 for a draw, and an away win for Nantes is considered the most unlikely outcome (4.30). The visitors had the weekend off.
This was unintentional, as the French Football Federation granted PSG a breather between their Champions League quarter-final matches. In the midst of a relegation battle, which we definitely still have to include Nantes in, this was a decision that went against the 13th-placed team.
At least the legs will be a little fresher against Rennes, and a likely defeat against the still-undefeated Parisians has not taken the wind out of their sails. Les Canaris have won two of their last three matches, including one at OGC Nice.
Two weeks earlier, they secured a 1-0 victory against Lille, a contender for a Champions League spot. In between, there was a bitter 2-3 defeat against Le Havre. One that could ultimately cost them their place in the league?
That will become clear in the coming weeks. The away game against Rennes is likely to be a very difficult task. With 43 goals, SRFC has scored the most goals in the lower half of the table.
The 5-1 win against Le Havre was a clear indication of this. In general, things tend to go really well when Rennes scores. Previously, they had a 3-0 win against Angers and a 4-0 win against Montpellier, but in between there were also defeats, such as the 0-1 results against Lens and Auxerre.
There has been no consistency so far, which is why I’m going for odds of almost 2.00 in this match.
In my opinion, this offers a similar probability of occurrence as many of the lower odds on offer.
And how are the French themselves betting? Let’s take a look at French betting provider Winamax. Two odds that are currently trending here are a Rennes win and “Double Chance 1X.”
There you can enjoy free betting credits of up to $100 and tax-free odds. You can also see how other users have bet in each individual betting market as a percentage.
Incidentally, Nantes won the first leg 1-0. It was a deserved victory, with the visitors never really getting into the game. And the last few encounters in Rennes? There was hardly anything to be had for Nantes. They haven’t won away in ten matches.
The away record this season doesn’t exactly fill me with confidence that the streak will end. Nantes has only won three games on the road. Only St. Etienne and Montpellier have done worse.
On top of that, Nantes has conceded the second-most goals away from home, 31 in total, which is about two on average. At the same time, the team has created the fewest chances throughout the season.
Nevertheless, I’m not interested in betting on the “Double Chance 1X” for just a slightly improved odds. Rennes’ defense is too fragile for that in my opinion.
Conclusion: Rennes recorded an impressive 5-1 victory last week. I don’t necessarily expect another win, but I think the men in red and black can build on their offensive performance.
Nantes got off too lightly in their previous matches in terms of results. Les Canaris had to sweat and could easily have conceded a few more goals. It wasn’t down to the quality of the chances, but rather the efficiency and clinical finishing of Nice and Lille, among others.
Over 1.5 Rennes goals!
