Premier League, Wednesday, December 4, 2024 at 8:30 pm
It remains the case: Liverpool are leading the way, with a huge pack of pursuers following at a great distance! Better times finally seem to be dawning for Chelsea FC again, with the Blues and Arsenal FC the top two pursuers.
It goes without saying that they also want to beat the bottom-of-the-league team on Wednesday. In my Southampton Chelsea tip, I will now tell you why I share the opinion of our German bookmakers and can’t imagine anything other than an away win (with over 2.5 goals)!
You want to dedicate yourself to the Premier League? Then just bet your entire fortune on Liverpool FC (irony alert!!!)! Unbelievable but true, after 13 rounds the Reds are enthroned at the top with a fabulous nine-point lead.
They are the only team far and wide that is going from victory to victory. Arsenal and Chelsea are hot on their heels. Seven wins, four draws and two defeats: the Blues would once again like to have a strong season after a few disappointing years.
In September, the Londoners collected three wins in a row, and they are now gauging themselves against this winning triple. 2-1 against Leicester and 3-0 against Aston Villa: after drawing with both Manchester United and Arsenal, they are continuing to win.
Chelsea had conceded goals seven times in a row, but they finally managed to keep a clean sheet again. It was the first clean sheet in their own stadium and the third overall.
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Speaking of their own stadium, does Chelsea prefer to play at home? Actually, no! With four wins, one draw and one defeat, the narrow 1-2 against league leaders Liverpool, the Blues are second in the away table.
With 14:6 goals, that works out at an average of 3.33 goals per game, so there is rarely a dull moment. Chelsea have only fallen behind to Liverpool and Arsenal, otherwise the 1-0 belongs to the club from the capital.
I therefore take a look at Bet365 and see: odds of 1.25 for the 1-0 on Wednesday? That’s not enough! The bookmakers apparently expect a little more from the bottom team.
For example, Chelsea could score a clear victory for the first time since September. A 0-1 handicap is definitely on the cards, and this bet is worth 2.00 odds at Bet365 – not to mention the Bet365 bonus.
Last season, however, the Blues had to fight hard to get the better of Southampton. 0-1 and 1-2, in fact they lost twice in the end!
They hadn’t lost in Southampton nine times in a row before the 1-2. So, from a purely historical point of view, it’s no wonder that the bookmakers are making the Blues favorites for Wednesday.
The odds average 1.35 to 7.50, which is a significant lead considering it is an away game. Of course, this also has to do with the fact that the opponent is completely out of form.
The Saints, who only returned to the Premier League a few months ago, are last and have only one win to their name. They beat Everton 1-0 in early November, with the decisive goal fittingly coming just before the end.
Most recently, there was almost a sense of optimism when they drew 1-1 with Brighton, as it was only the third game this season that didn’t end completely without points. The offense is the Saints’ biggest problem.
A measly ten goals have been scored, no one can beat that. There was only one occasion when two goals were scored. It was a curious occasion: it happened in the 2-3 defeat to league leaders Liverpool, when the underdog even led 2-1!
Does that mean Southampton are stronger at home? Only the 3-0 defeat to Manchester United in September was clear; the other defeats (1-0 to Nottingham, 3-2 to Leicester and Liverpool) could have been avoided.
It’s very unfortunate that the Saints always take the lead at home. In the 1-1 draw against Ipswich, the opponents equalized in the final seconds, and against Leicester they were even 2-0 up, with stoppage time deciding the outcome.
So I’m looking back to Bet365 again, because: Should the hosts score the first goal of the game against all expectations, the odds would jump to a high 3.50!
Has it never been too easy to be or become second in the Premier? Chelsea, along with Arsenal, are chasing Liverpool FC, thanks in part to their strength away from home. The Blues are doing well, especially in offense.
Something I certainly can’t say about Southampton. The bottom-placed team is simply not winning, not scoring, and at home they are also having the enormous bad luck of giving away good performances in injury time.
As a result, I opt for the bet of an away win. Since the Blues score frequently and Southampton is known for conceding late goals, my tip is:
Chelsea win at over 1.5 goals!
