Men’s Olympic soccer tournament, group stage, Tuesday, 30.07.2024 at 15:00
The men’s Olympic soccer tournament is sure to produce some exciting matches, at the latest when the quarter-finals kick off in just a few days.
However, according to my Spain Egypt betting tip, the last matchday in Group C is likely to be a consensual let-off in the final 90 minutes of the preliminary round.
Especially as the North Africans would not be easy to break down even if the Iberians still had to worry about progressing.
Spain were the first team to qualify for the quarter-finals of the men’s soccer tournament at this Olympics.
Two victories over Uzbekistan (2:1) and the Dominican Republic (3:1) paved the way, but these must clearly be categorized as “must-wins”.
Egypt will be the toughest task at this tournament so far. However, it is also clear that if the Iberians do indeed finish top of their group, they are far from being the top favorites to win gold.
The tough ones are still to come
Egypt will almost certainly also be represented in the quarter-finals. In the two group games in which the North Africans have been involved, only one goal has been scored so far, but it was enough.
This was Ahmed Kouka’s goal in the 11th minute of the match in the eventual 1:0 victory over Uzbekistan. This goal, coupled with the goalless draw against the Dominican Republic, catapulted Egypt into the quarter-finals as group runners-up.
In view of this starting position and the increased odds of the bookmakers, I think there is only one admissible Spain Egypt bet on Tuesday: Under 2.5 goals. I’ll tell you that up front
The starting position ahead of this final group matchday is a very good indication that both teams would prefer to conserve their strength for the quarter-finals.
Furthermore, Egypt’s defensive-oriented style of play is not designed to entertain spectators with attacking soccer at its finest.
Uzbekistan (0.86) and the Dominican Republic (0.83) did not deserve to score against Egypt according to their respective xG values.
What’s more, none of the North Africans’ last six matches at the Olympics have exceeded the 2.5-goal mark.
In addition, the Spaniards will probably be more concerned with keeping a clean sheet on this final group matchday.
Especially as their defense has always been their greatest strength at this tournament in previous editions. A clean sheet would certainly boost their confidence considerably before the quality of their opponents increases in just a few days’ time.
Did you know that? Only in one of the last 11 competitive matches at the Olympics involving a Spanish side have the “Roja” conceded more than one goal.
I also find it interesting that both nations played a match at the Olympics almost exactly three years ago, which corresponds to my Spain Egypt prediction.
On matchday 1, the two opponents drew goalless in Tokyo in a game that could hardly have been more uneventful
Neither side has a multiple goalscorer at the Olympics, so I can’t suggest a player who should be considered for a goalscorer bet.
Especially as I rate a 0:0 or at best 1:0 for the Spaniards as the two most likely end results anyway. In the end, therefore, it would probably be worth lowering my recommendation of an under 2.5 goal bet by one goal.
You can also place an under 1.5 goal bet. The risk is of course slightly higher than with my Spain Egypt betting tip, but this also applies to the associated odds of around 3.50.
I would not emphasize an offensive player on either side, but rather a player who is involved in preventing goals.
On the Egyptian side, that would clearly be Hamza Alaa. The goalkeeper has made three great saves in the first two group games, so I have every confidence that he will be able to keep a clean sheet against the Iberians, who are playing with the handbrake on.
Conclusion: There are simply a lot of reasons to put a cross next to an under-2.5-goal tip here.
Spain would find it difficult to break down the Egyptians even if they gave 100%. But now that they could safely go into the quarter-finals in first place with a draw, there is also a lack of interest in getting overly involved here on Tuesday.
However, since the bookmakers are offering you the better deals for a low-scoring event, I’d go for it if I were you. Sports betting fans who are willing to take risks could even consider a sub-1.5-goal tip
My tip: Under 2.5 goals
