Champions League, Tuesday, February 11, 2025 at 9:00 p.m.
Before the crisis is after the crisis at BVB – because even after the change of coach, Borussia is still falling short of its own expectations. In any case, the top game in the Bundesliga against Stuttgart was lost at the weekend!
In my Sporting Lisbon Dortmund betting tip, I analyze for you whether the Portuguese can also capitalize on this difficult phase at Borussia.
In view of a promising Sporting Lisbon Dortmund tip at every reasonable betting provider with a German license, the direct comparison is not entirely uninteresting.
The two clubs have met four times in the Champions League so far – BVB have won three of those encounters, but the last duel in November 2021 went to the Lions at the Estádio José Alvalade with a score of 3:1.
Can Sporting repeat this success, or will Borussia prevail again? In any case, wonder striker Viktor Gyökeres seems to have recovered in time for Tuesday!
The bookmakers’ prediction
Sporting Lisbon start the game as slight favorites with odds of 2.20 against the Bundesliga club, which is mainly due to the Portuguese team’s home strength.
A draw, on the other hand, is trading at 3.65, which shows that the bookmakers are also expecting an even game, as the Dortmund odds of around 3.15 have also been set in this range.
These balanced Sporting Lisbon v Dortmund odds thus strongly suggest that no decisive result should be expected in the first leg.
KI prediction Sporting Lisbon vs Dortmund: That’s what ChatGPT tips
Now it’s getting hot and to give myself a small advantage, I asked ChatGPT for his own Sporting Lisbon Dortmund AI prediction. Was it worth it? Definitely yes!
For high-risk football bets with a good chance of success, “Half-time/final score 2/2” is suggested at 5.10. And why not?
If Dortmund finds its rhythm early on, they could actually take command from the start. However, I definitely trust SCP to fight back even after a weak start.
The medium risk is about “Gyökeres hits” at about 2.00 – a tip that also appeals to me. The attacker that half of Europe is talking about is fit again and, with his physique and finishing skills, poses a constant danger to any defense.
Finally, ChatGPT recommends “Both teams score” as a safe bet at 1.63. I can also sign up to this, because in 75% of Sporting’s Champions League games this season, both teams have scored.
Given the offensive quality of both teams, this Sporting Lisbon Dortmund tip seems very likely.
Analysis: Sporting Lisbon vs Dortmund
Hopefully we get to see some great football on Tuesday! Let’s start with an analysis of the Portuguese team!
Sporting CP only just qualified for the knockout phase of the Champions League after failing to win their last four group games (1 draw, 3 defeats).
Nevertheless, they are considered favorites in the first leg against Borussia, not least because of their aforementioned 3-1 home win in the direct duel in 2021/22.
Since the arrival of coach Rui Borges, the Portuguese side are still unbeaten in competitive matches at their home ground, the Estádio José Alvalade, and are therefore secretly hoping to reach the last 16 for the first time since the 2008/09 season (4 wins, 1 draw).
Dortmund, on the other hand, are in a difficult position in the Bundesliga in the battle for a return to the Champions League, but have impressed internationally (5 wins, 3 defeats).
However, one particular statistic does not necessarily speak in their favor: in the last twelve knockout phases, Borussia have only won two of their away games (1 draw, 9 defeats).
However, there is a small statistical glimmer of hope in the form of new coach Niko Kovač, who has never lost a Champions League away game in his career as head coach (4 wins, 2 draws).
Furthermore, Dortmund celebrated an important 1-0 semi-final victory at PSG last season. So there is reason for hope in the BVB camp.
Odds Analysis
At this point, I would like to recommend two Sporting Lisbon Dortmund tips that I can warmly recommend to you together with the Interwetten Freebet. This is because they both have “value bet potential”.
The bet on “Over 2.5 goals” at odds of 1.72 is definitely worth considering, as at least three goals have been scored in each of Borussia Dortmund’s last four games.
Betting on BVB to score the first goal at around 1.80 is also an exciting option. After all, BVB has scored the first goal in 88% of its Champions League matches this season.
Sporting Lisbon vs. Dortmund odds: Can Guirassy stop Gyökeres?
Everyone is talking about Viktor Gyökeres, but there is another name on the Dortmund side that would be suitable for a goal bet – especially since he might be extra motivated.
Especially since Serhou Guirassy is already the top scorer of the league phase of the current edition of the premier class with nine goals (tied with Robert Lewandowski).
Should he score again in this game, he would even equal the record for the most goals in a single Champions League season for BVB!
Dortmund have duels with Portuguese clubs!
Did you know that BVB seems to specialize in Portuguese teams?
Surprisingly, Borussia Dortmund has the highest win rate of all nations against teams from Portugal (64%), of all the nations they have played at least ten times in Europe (9 wins, 5 defeats).
At the same time, Sporting CP has lost more often to German Bundesliga clubs than to any other nation (4 wins, 6 draws, 21 defeats). Just a little statistical sleight of hand, or is there more to it than that?
Sporting Lisbon – Dortmund tip
Sporting Lisbon will face Dortmund in a thrilling duel that promises at least three goals – relatively evenly distributed!
The game could be wild at times, but I’m betting that the guests from Dortmund will ultimately win the first leg or at least not lose.
Especially after the extremely unfortunate defeat against VfB last weekend, Borussia is very keen to make amends.
But my Sporting Lisbon Dortmund tip remains primarily: Over 2.5 goals.
