Bundesliga 28th matchday, Sunday, 06.04.2025 at 3:30 pm
St. Pauli is in a precarious situation and could get important points in the game against Gladbach to prevent the threat of relegation. After a disappointing defeat at the Allianz Arena, the team is still under pressure.
Will the Kiezkickers manage to set the necessary impulses and thus activate the brake parachute to escape the relegation maelstrom?
My St. Pauli Gladbach tip analyzes the situation and provides helpful hints to place a well-informed bet. In addition, I recommend that you use the Merkur Bets bonus to get the most out of your betting opportunities!
St. Pauli is therefore facing an uphill struggle and urgently needs a strong result against Borussia Mönchengladbach.
It will be especially important for the home team not to concede a goal, as the Foals have scored at least once in all of their previous eight Bundesliga visits to the Millerntor – no other team has managed that consistently.
In addition, Gladbach won the first leg 2-0 and could now win both season duels for the second time since the 1977/78 season. Nevertheless, I firmly expect that the “Boys in Brown” will not let themselves be duped again on Sunday.
According to the bookies, this duel will be extremely exciting! The odds are pretty even, with St. Pauli at 2.55 and Gladbach at 2.85 – this shows that it is not so clear who will get the upper hand here.
A draw is considered a very likely outcome at 3.40. The best betting providers with PayPal are leaving it open as to who will come out on top in the end – there is definitely still plenty of room for surprises!
AI prediction St. Pauli vs Gladbach: ChatGPT’s picks
The St. Pauli Gladbach AI prediction I requested from ChatGPT provided me with three betting options of varying risk, most of which I rejected.
For example, “Half-time/final score: X/2” was suggested for the high risk. A solid tip from the AI assistant’s point of view, but my gut feeling suggests to me personally that St. Pauli will not lose the game.
For a St. Pauli Gladbach tip with a medium risk level, on the other hand, the AI recommends “Over 2.5 goals”. However, since the promoted team is usually very stable defensively, I am not entirely convinced by this bet. A result with many goals is not my favorite here.
Finally, “double chance X2” is mentioned for a safe bet. In my opinion, this tip is less attractive due to the low odds. I would rather favor the opposite bet, as St. Pauli is likely to perform strongly at home.
Analysis: St. Pauli vs Gladbach
St. Pauli ended a six-game winless streak with a 1-0 victory over Hoffenheim, but were narrowly beaten 2-3 by Bayern last weekend.
Despite the defeat, the performance showed promise for the remaining games of the season. However, with only a three-point lead over the relegation place, the club is under more pressure than ever.
Ahlers and Dzwigala are two players who are injured and whose participation next Sunday is questionable, but it would do the team good. The northerners can only hope that both will be fit in time.
Borussia Mönchengladbach, on the other hand, are traveling with a lot of confidence after celebrating four consecutive away wins. The “Foals” are aiming to achieve five away wins in a row for the first time since the 1969/70 season.
They are also chasing their third consecutive Bundesliga win, which they have not achieved since June 2020.
The game takes on added spice due to the fact that their former coach Marco Rose was sacked after the most recent 1-0 win over Leipzig last weekend and replaced by Zsolt Löw, who will now make his Bundesliga debut as a coach on Matchday 28.
Odds analysis
Personally, I really like the “Under 2.5 goals” option at odds of around 1.98. But I like “Gladbach under 1.5 goals” even more at a slightly lower 1.55 – depending on the bookie!
Even though the payout in the Bet365 app would be slightly lower in this case, I have significantly more confidence in this St. Pauli Gladbach tip than in almost all others.
St. Pauli vs. Gladbach: low-scoring encounter?
The suggestion of the AI of a match with over 2.5 goals has no chance with me for a good reason. Because the Kiezkicker are simply not the team that justifies such bets.
After all, FC St. Pauli has only scored 22 goals in this Bundesliga season, which is a negative club record. With only eight home goals, they are particularly harmless at the Millerntor.
By comparison, Fürth had only four goals after 13 home games in 2012/13.
Furthermore, the FCSP only scores 11 times per game, which is also the lowest value in the league with Holstein Kiel.
So if you bet on a lot of goals in a game involving the “Boys in Brown”, you will often be disappointed.
St. Pauli: Don’t be 0-1 down!
If Borussia Mönchengladbach scores the 1-0, the game could practically be decided. That’s because the “Foals” have been incredibly strong this season when they take the lead.
Note: In 14 games in which they took the lead, they only conceded points once – no one has conceded fewer points after taking the lead.
In stark contrast to this is St. Pauli, who are the only team in this Bundesliga season not to have won a point while trailing (16 deficits, 16 defeats).
This suggests that it will be difficult for the Kiezkicker to come back if Gladbach actually scores the first goal of the game.
On top of that, Gerardo Seoane, as Gladbach coach, has not lost a single one of his 11 Bundesliga games against promoted teams (6 wins, 5 draws).
A solid record that underlines how dominant Gladbach is against weaker teams. So if Gladbach takes the lead, the Drops could really be sucked.
My St. Pauli Gladbach betting tip:
Many would claim that Gladbach have recently shown the more convincing performances.
And indeed, I would not contradict this thesis. But St. Pauli could rise above themselves on Sunday and successfully save a 1-0 half-time lead over time.
Their recent performance against Bayern was not that of a team that has prematurely given up hope of being saved.
Therefore, my St. Pauli Gladbach tip is: Pauli leads at half-time and wins the game.
