Bundesliga Matchday 1, Sunday, 25.07.2024 at 17:30
If someone had told FCH fans two seasons ago that their boys would be competing in the Conference League in 2024/25, nobody would have believed it.
On Sunday, my St. Pauli Heidenheim betting tip is all about determining how good their chances are of winning the first Bundesliga game of the season against the recently promoted Kiezkickers.
I’ll be using all the useful tools that are also available to you, such as the Oddset Freebet and an analysis of the St. Pauli Heidenheim AI prediction from ChatGPT.
Fabian Hürzeler was certainly the mastermind behind the Kiezkicker’s Bundesliga comeback, improving the team at every level from the time he joined until his recent departure to England.
Now, however, possibly the most talented German coach is at Brighton. His former club must find ways and means to stay above the line at the end of the season without him.
Marcel Hartel will also be sorely missed at the Millerntor, but according to my St. Pauli Heidenheim betting tip, it will still be possible for the newly promoted side to at least pick up points on matchday 1.
The betting providers’ forecast?
Interesting are the St. Pauli Heidenheim odds of the bookies, which you can call up yourself at any time with any tested sports betting app.
These will tell you how the bookies assess the situation and whether they actually believe the promoted team can win the opening three games.
The answer? Yes, even if only to a limited extent! Because with average odds of 2.10 to 3.40 in favor of the hosts, their role as favorites is not particularly pronounced
KI prediction St. Pauli vs Heidenheim: ChatGPT bets on it
Now we come to the St. Pauli Heidenheim AI prediction, where I asked ChatGPT about possible betting scenarios for this match.
I can leave “Both teams to score” as a low-risk tip, as I would also advise you to place this bet
Furthermore, the artificial intelligence recommends a bet of the type “Over 2.5 goals” at odds of around 1.83, which I would probably also classify as a medium-risk St. Pauli Heidenheim bet.
Last but not least, the AI makes a daring prediction: St. Pauli will win after falling behind. A scenario that is not impossible in my eyes.
The last time this happened between these two teams was in October 2021, when the Kiezkickers fell 1-0 behind early on but still ended up 4-2 ahead
Analysis: St. Pauli vs Heidenheim
Do you know what the analysts think the chances of both teams finishing the season in a non-relegation place are? For St. Pauli, a value of 31.9 % was calculated, while for FCH it was around 55.4 %.
In a direct comparison, however, the promoted team has the edge.
Incidentally, the upcoming Bundesliga clash between Pauli and Heidenheim is the first meeting between the two teams in Germany’s top division
Historically, St. Pauli have a strong record against Heidenheim, remaining unbeaten in their last seven competitive matches against FCH (5 wins, 2 draws).
Incidentally, the Brenzstädter were in action during the week in the UECL qualifiers, where they managed to celebrate a 2:1 away win at BK Häcken
Quota analysis
For the exciting clash between FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Heidenheim, there are three fascinating betting options that promise different attractions depending on your risk appetite.
If you love thrills, a 1:1 result bet at attractive odds of 6.75 could be just the thing – perfect for those who like excitement.
For the more cautious among you, on the other hand, the DC-1X bet at 1.31 is ideal for combination bets and those who prefer to play it safe.
And for those expecting a more intense match, a bet on both teams to score at odds of 1.68 is the perfect choice – especially as even a draw higher than 1:1 is, in my opinion, well within the realms of possibility.
St. Pauli vs. Heidenheim odds: Millerntor phenomenon
If the Kiezkickers want to avoid relegation this season, they simply have to pick up points in a home game against the red and blue. Incidentally, that’s something they’ve always managed to do quite well after 2014!
Watch out: Heidenheim have only won one of their nine visits to the Millerntor so far.
That victory dates back to November 2014, when they triumphed with a clear 3-0 win, aided by a brace from Florian Niederlechner and another goal from Robert Leipertz.
Since then, FC St. Pauli have remained unbeaten at home against FCH.
Although Heidenheim have been strong away from home recently, their history at the Millerntor underlines that a win will be a difficult task for the visitors
St. Pauli are relying on the support of their fans
Despite the loss of coach Fabian Hürzeler, FC St. Pauli remain a force to be reckoned with at home and will be hard to break even in their first Bundesliga match against Heidenheim.
In any case, the data clearly speaks in favor of the Kiezkickers: In the last second division season, they had the best home statistics of all teams, collecting 38 points and losing only one game at the Millerntor.
In fact, they have only lost two of their last 36 home games (21 wins, 13 draws)
Hamburg are also extremely stable at the start of the season – in the last 16 years, they have only started the league with one defeat.
With this impressive record behind them, it seems unlikely that St. Pauli will lose their historic Bundesliga debut against Heidenheim on their own turf.
Despite the Kiezkicker’s impressive home form, the possibility of a draw against the red and blue remains very real, as their opponents usually prove to be extremely resilient.
Heidenheim have suffered just one defeat in their last ten Bundesliga away games since mid-December (1-0 against FC Augsburg), while they have won three and drawn six.
During this period, only reigning champions Bayer 04 Leverkusen have suffered fewer away defeats.
Given these statistics, the clash between St. Pauli and FCH will be an exciting showdown in which Heidenheim certainly have the potential to snatch a point from the Millerntor.
My St. Pauli Heidenheim tip:
In the upcoming Bundesliga match between St. Pauli and Red & Blue, there is much to suggest an exciting game with goals on both sides.
The hosts are a force at home and have only lost one home game against Heidenheim since 2014.
The Kiezkickers are also unbeaten in eight home games and posted the best home statistics in the 2nd division last season.
However, Heidenheim have proven to be strong away from home, losing only one of their last ten away games.
Therefore, a double chance 1x remains my preferred bet, while “Both teams to score is also a realistic scenario.
My tip: Double chance 1X & Both teams to score
