Bundesliga Matchday 30, Sunday, 20.04.2025 at 7:30 p.m.
Has the championship in the 2024/25 Bundesliga season already been decided? That’s one of the questions I’ll be addressing in my St. Pauli Leverkusen prediction.
There are still five matchdays left to play. With a six-point deficit, Leverkusen can still catch Bayern in the final sprint, at least in theory. But the momentum is not exactly in the Werkself’s favor.
On the last matchday, they only managed a goalless draw at home against Union Berlin. Before that, the champions had only won 1-0 in Heidenheim and were knocked out of the cup by third-division side Bielefeld.
Never before have more than four points been made up so late in the season in the three-point era. On Sunday, at the end of the 30th matchday, coach Xabi Alonso’s team also faces a difficult task.
FC St. Pauli will be a tough opponent for Bayer with their commitment, fighting spirit, and strong defense. The odds from German-licensed bookmakers are quite clear in favor of the visitors.
I’m going with St. Pauli Leverkusen odds of 1.66 at NEO.bet for “St. Pauli to win with a handicap of +2 & under 3.5 goals.”
The bookmakers’ predictions?
The St. Pauli Leverkusen odds from the best bookmakers, who are also at the top of the betting bonus comparison, are unsurprisingly on the side of the visitors. An average odds of 1.69 is being paid for a win for the away team.
On the other side, you can get betting odds between 4.75 and 5.30 for a win for the Kiezkickers.
AI prediction St. Pauli vs Leverkusen: ChatGPT’s prediction
As always, we asked ChatGPT for its prediction for the St. Pauli Leverkusen match. The AI predicts a low risk that the visitors will score the first goal of the game.
For this, we only get odds of 1.57 at Betano. In fact, the Werkself have scored the first goal of the game in three of their last four matches. However, one should be cautious about goals at Bayer at the moment.
Since their 0-3 defeat in the Champions League in Munich, the number of shots on goal for B04 has dropped from 15.7 to 12.9. The team only created one big chance every 65 minutes (instead of every 29 minutes).
The Werkself also needs almost twice as long to score a goal as before (80 minutes instead of 42). Given this expert knowledge, we must also treat ChatGPT’s second suggestion with caution.
Here, artificial intelligence recommends the St. Pauli Leverkusen tip “Over 2.5 goals” with a medium risk. However, on Sunday, two of the top four defenses in the Bundesliga will face each other.
Bet365, which has a great Bet365 welcome bonus for new customers, rewards more than two goals with odds of 2.00. For the St. Pauli Leverkusen bet with a high risk, the AI recommends a result bet.
Tips on a final result are always associated with a high risk. Therefore, the tip “2:1 for Leverkusen” must be played very cautiously. At Bet-at-home, you would get high odds of 9.00 for this.
Analysis: St. Pauli vs Leverkusen
FC St. Pauli is close to achieving its goal for the season. With a nine-point lead over 17th place, coach Alexander Blessin’s men will have nothing to do with direct relegation.
They are also seven points ahead of 16th place. All clubs that had more than a five-point lead over 16th place after 29 matchdays were able to avoid relegation to League 2 in the end.
This season, the Kiezkickers often came away empty-handed despite good performances. Last matchday in Kiel, it was the other way around. This time, the only thing that was almost perfect in the away game against the Storks was the 2-1 result.
The “Boys in Brown” also picked up four points from their last two home games against Hoffenheim and Mönchengladbach. In addition, FCSP has scored at least one goal in each of its last five Bundesliga games.
During this period, Pauli scored a total of seven goals. That was as many goals as in the previous 11 games in the top flight combined. However, Hamburg still has the weakest offense in the league.
Just 25 goals is also a new club record after 29 rounds. On the other hand, the promoted team picked up four points from behind in its last two Bundesliga games. In the first 27 games, they had failed to pick up a single point.
Nevertheless, only Heidenheim (2) picked up fewer points after falling behind than the Kiezkickers. The men from Millerntor are also only 16th in the league in terms of chances converted.
On Sunday, the home side will have to do without regular Jackson Irvine.
Odds analysis
As always, this Bundesliga game provides us with further St. Pauli Leverkusen tips in addition to the AI’s suggestions. Leverkusen has conceded an average of only 9.6 shots per game this season.
FC St. Pauli has a value of 11.0 here. Only Bayern Munich is better in this statistic (6.5). In addition, both teams have eight clean sheets. So, in my opinion, the tip “Under 2.5 goals” makes more sense.
St. Pauli vs Leverkusen: The Werkself chases Bayern’s record
Leverkusen has won only three of its last eight competitive games. The Werkself is currently struggling to find solutions against deep-lying teams and lacks a cutting edge in front of goal.
At least Florian Wirtz returned from a five-week injury lay-off in last weekend’s home game against Union Berlin. However, the international was unable to solve the team’s problems.
With 63 points and a 17-point cushion in fifth place, Bayer is the second team after Bayern Munich to secure a Champions League spot for next season.
With a 12-point lead over Frankfurt, the runners-up spot is also no longer really in danger. So the Werkself can still work on its away form in the final stretch.
B04 is unbeaten in 31 Bundesliga away games. Only two games remain to match Bayern Munich’s historic record. With 32 points, Bayer is unsurprisingly the best away team in the league.
Leverkusen has the second-best offense after FC Bayern (83) with 63 goals and has earned the second-most points after falling behind (12) this season. The club is also having its second-best Bundesliga season.
Since matchday 25 of the 2020/21 season, the team has gone twelve games without defeat, including twelve wins and three draws, and is also unbeaten against promoted teams. Coach Alonso’s men will be looking to extend this record in the St. Pauli Leverkusen tip.
Only three players are unavailable due to injury: Belocian, Hermoso, and Terrier.
Will B04 remain the FCSP’s favorite opponent?
Bayer is Hamburg’s favorite opponent. St. Pauli has celebrated more victories against Leverkusen (5) than against any other club in its Bundesliga history. However, the last of these five victories was over 28 years ago.
In November 1996, there was a 3-1 win at the Millerntor. Of eleven home games against the Werkself, only one was lost. However, the trend has changed somewhat. Hamburg have only picked up one point from their last six Bundesliga encounters.
The first leg of the season is of course particularly significant for my St. Pauli Leverkusen prediction. It was the first time the two teams had faced each other in a competitive match in 13 years.
Coach Xabi Alonso’s side were 2-0 up at half-time and eventually won 2-1.
My St. Pauli Leverkusen prediction:
The reigning double winners have lost some of their momentum in attack in recent weeks. Coach Xabi Alonso’s men therefore face a difficult task at the Millerntor on Sunday.
The Kiezkickers have already made life difficult for many top teams this season. In the end, I don’t think the visitors will manage more than a narrow victory by a single goal.
In addition, not too many goals are likely to be scored in this clash between two teams with strong defenses. In the end, I’m going for the following St. Pauli Leverkusen prediction: St. Pauli to win with a +2 handicap & under 3.5 goals!
