Bundesliga 19th matchday, Sunday, 01/26/2025 at 5:30 pm
A treat of German football? Admittedly, we probably shouldn’t expect that with the two worst attacking lines in the Bundesliga! In our top-flight tips, betting fans repeatedly report that two teams are simply not doing very well.
These two are now the protagonists in my St. Pauli Union Berlin betting tip. The duo can be found near the bottom of the table, and one reason for this is their poor conversion rate. And that brings me to my betting tip for you: the 2.5 goals will not be broken!
The Kiezkicker are, and this surprises me a bit, the weakest home team in the competition, with goals scored in just a single match. And the guests from the capital? They have not scored a single point away from home since October.
No question about it, nobody should have a broad chest here, but that makes the game all the more exciting, of course. In the first half of the season, a goal was scored, but I’m not really sure that we will even get that far at the Millerntor on Sunday.
A goalless draw is a distinct possibility, and both teams are equally responsible for that. But who knows, maybe the two of them will defy us and really get going – two goals in the game would be quite a spectacle here!
The betting providers’ prediction?
St. Pauli are bottom of the home table – so it’s not at all a given that they will go into the 19th matchday as favorites! Nevertheless, in our sports betting apps, it is the Hamburgers who are slightly ahead.
The win odds average 2.50. Union Berlin, without a point away from home for months, don’t have to worry, because the odds of 3.00 for the yield are actually not that bad.
In the relegation battle, it’s all or nothing, so of course a point wouldn’t get either side very far. If both actually draw, you can get odds of 3.15 – an extremely low value this time, when we would normally expect to see 3.50.
KI-Prognose St. Pauli vs Union Berlin: That’s what ChatGPT tips
Is ChatGPT really that helpful in the betting business? We test that week after week in our 1st Bundesliga tips. So what bets does the AI suggest for the game between Union Berlin and St. Pauli?
One suggested high-risk tip predicts goals from Union Berlin in both halves – and that’s for a team that has scored six goals in total away from home! Since St. Pauli have only conceded more than one goal at home three times, I’m going to disagree here.
You’d rather take only a medium-high risk? Then you might like the “Both teams score” bet. This has only happened four times to the Pauli team, but eight times to the guests. My conclusion: very daring!
The low-risk bet is the “double chance X2”. Let me put it this way: St. Pauli is very weak at home, but Union is just as weak away from home. Since this strongly smells of a draw, the “DC X2” would somehow fit.
Analysis: St. Pauli vs. Union Berlin
They actually love going to the stadium, the fans of FC St. Pauli! In recent years, the home games were really a safe bet, the Millerntor a true fortress. Now, of course, the opponents have become much more demanding and lo and behold, the home strength has suddenly disappeared.
They have only won once at home, at the end of November there was a 3:1 defeat to the fellow promoted team from Kiel. A real festival of scoring with three own goals – they were the only ones to fall at the Elbe!
Both of the two draws and the five defeats had no own goals at all, with three measly goals, Pauli has the worst home offense in the league.
A total of 14 goals have been scored, a figure that no one has beaten. Who comes closest? Union Berlin, of course, with 16 goals. Both clubs have managed the feat of scoring an equal number of goals.
Odds Analysis
It is a crisis duel that will take place on Sunday on the Elbe, so it is not easy to choose from the various bets. Before I get to the sporting side of things: “choice” is a good keyword in the political sense.
But now back to St. Pauli and Union. In fact, the Hamburgers have already collected six clean sheets, which is not bad at all. Since the Irons have already ended eight games without scoring, you can bet that there will be no goal for Union on Sunday.
Interwetten offers odds of 2.80, and the Interwetten Freebet is also waiting for you here. This also makes a tip worth: a 0-0 half-time result. Here we are now at odds of 2.60.
If I had to choose one outcome bet… I might go for the 0-0 draw this time, because neither of the teams are particularly convincing in attack. You can get odds of 9.50 for this risk at Interwetten.
St. Pauli vs. Union Berlin: Major offensive problems on both sides
Only 9.8% of chances are being converted, which smells like a 2nd Bundesliga game for both teams. The last time the SpVgg Greuther Fürth had such a weak start at home in the 1st Bundesliga was in 2012/13, when they also scored three goals in eight games.
Of course, everyone in Hamburg knows what happened to the club from Franconia: they were relegated without a whimper. It’s still a long way from that for Pauli, because courageous away games ensured that they currently have 17 points and are three points ahead of the relegation place.
Paulis Defensive steht!
Although I can’t deny that Hamburg have shown courage in their own stadium. They only lost 1-0 to Bayern and Eintracht Frankfurt, for example, so the morale is definitely good.
0-3, 0-1, 1-2 and 0-1 – what do these results tell us? Quite simply, after the first four wins of this season, St. Pauli lost again straight away. After the recent 2-0 defeat to Heidenheim, this is obviously not good news.
I must also mention that the promoted team has conceded 21 goals so far. And believe it or not, that’s the second-best record behind FC Bayern, and that as a relegation candidate!
Eric Smith and Adam Dzwigala, the two suspended players, will not be able to help underline this strong record on Sunday. The 0-1 from the first leg should be countered, seven of the last eight games against Union have unfortunately been lost.
The Irons should know exactly how FC St. Pauli felt last weekend, because they were also finally able to win again – against Mainz, although the 05ers were considered to be very strong away from home.
They had previously lost seven times in a row (the 1-1 draw against Bochum was awarded on the green table), but it was their first win since October 20. The fifth win of the season was secured at home, while only one game has been won away from home.
The 2-0 win came in October at Holstein Kiel, the same club against which Pauli celebrated their only home win. Away from home, they have simply not scored enough; only one goal has been scored since that Kiel win.
However, it could be an advantage for the guests from the capital that they now have to play against a newly promoted team – they have won five of their last six away games against such teams.
My St. Pauli Union Berlin betting tip:
It has to work again at last! The FC St. Pauli supporters will walk into the stadium full of confidence on Sunday, because after the win against Heidenheim, they will be desperate to build on it.
With three home goals and seven games without a goal, the fans have had little to celebrate so far. It’s a good thing, of course, that Union Berlin aren’t doing much better, especially away from home. Points and goals? They’ve been virtually non-existent since October.
I can’t find anyone who should be ahead of the other based on my analysis. Since both have such a hard time in attack and also deliver real horror numbers in terms of chance utilization, I can only recommend the following bet:
The 2.5 goals will not be cracked!
