Miami Masters, 1st round, Thursday, 03/20/2025, 4:00 p.m.
Jan-Lennard Struff is still searching for his form. A hip injury slowed him down last summer. Since then, he has only won more than one match once in his tournament appearances. Most recently, he suffered five defeats in a row.
He will make his next attempt at the Miami Masters. However, he has been drawn against a difficult opponent in the first round.
In my Struff Davidovich Fokina betting tip, I am convinced that, from a German perspective, there will unfortunately be a sixth disappointment and that the Spaniard will win the first set outright. NEO.bet has the right odds.
In Marseille, Struff was finally able to play in the quarterfinals again a month ago. However, the man who won his first career title last year in Munich was unable to emerge from his current crisis with the interim success in the south of France.
On the contrary. After his defeat against Daniil Medvedev, he suffered four more defeats in Doha, Abu Dhabi, at the Masters opener in Indian Wells and against up-and-comer Joao Fonesca at the Phoenix Challenger. In total, he has only won one set in this series of defeats.
Yes, the opponents were not without. He had to play Medvedev again, and he also faced the Netherlands’ number one, Tallon Griekspoor. And now it’s on to Miami with Fokina, who reached the final twice in a row before his surprisingly early exit from Indian Wells…
Accordingly, the betting providers see the Spaniard in front, but at 1.56, the odds are still really good. Struff has 2.48 before the start of the game. Will it be closer than expected? The German definitely has the better serve and has won the first and only duel.
However, that was in the Rotterdam Arena and that was in early 2024, when Struff was in much better form. And it was a very close match over three sets and two tiebreaks. NEO.bet, where you get a 10 euro free bet as a welcome gift, has a 2.52 ready for at least one of them on Thursday.
These odds also appeal to me. The courts in Miami are not the fastest, but they provide good speed. We can expect many fast service games.
Overall, Miami has not been the best tournament for the two top-50 players so far. The maximum was the third round. One or two sets could be closer in this clash, but I see clear advantages for the 25-year-old from Andalusia.
He is the more agile and defensively stronger player. At the latest when Struff fights with the odds on first serves for the first time, it will be tricky for the Warsteiner. In addition, Fokina is entering the match with a great deal of self-confidence.
He reached the finals in Delray Beach and Acapulco, beating Taylor Fritz, Frances Tiafoe and Denis Shapovalov, among others.
He previously reached the round of 16 at the Australian Open after beating Felix Auger-Aliassime and Jakub Mensik.
Due to the conditions in Miami and the first close duel, an overspiel bet is an alternative. Tipwin is the place to go for this. As with NEO.bet, you can look forward to tax-free odds here.
For over 21.5 games, we already get odds of 1.62. The higher lines are also interesting, but I would then go straight to the single odds, where we throw three sets in the game for odds of 2.25.
My Struff Davidovich Fokina betting tip
Struff is still looking for form. Will Miami be a good place for that? I don’t think so with the opening hurdle called “Davidovich Fokina”. He has reached the final twice in a row, taking one of the world’s best hard court players, Fritz, out of the tournament.
The German will need a good first serve percentage to score many free points against the good defensive player from Spain. However, “Struffi” remained below the 60 percent mark in the last two matches.
Fokina is currently the more stable player with clear advantages in the rallies. If the free points for the Warsteiner drop, it will be dangerous for the reigning Munich champion, who has lost five times in a row.
My Struff Davidovich Fokina Tip: Set 1 & Match Fokina
