Sturm Graz – GAK Tip Bundesliga Austria, Matchday 9 on Sunday, 18.10.2026 at 17:00 CET
For me, the omens in the Graz city derby are very clear! My Sturm Graz GAK tip is “home win and over 1.5 goals” at odds of 1.90, because the Ingolitsch squad is better positioned despite the double burden.
In addition, this bet would have led to a win in all four last meetings. GAK has not yet been able to convince me, especially away from home (3 points in 4 games), although it has recently been the first win away from home.
Sturm Graz vs. GAK AI predictions:
According to the Sturm Graz GAK betting odds, the winner can only be Sturm, because the “Schwoazen” are the big favorites according to the bookmaker and AI tool. The probability of winning at home is almost 56%, while a surprise coup by GAK is just 20%.
A draw is only slightly higher. This corresponds to betting odds of around 1.70 to approx. 4.20, as far as a winner is concerned. The draw will give you about 3.8 times your bet.
That doesn’t surprise me, because Sturm, twice champion in the last three years, has won the last eight competitive duels with the Red Jackets.
Predicted chance of winning:
| Victory Storm |
Draw |
Victory GAK |
| 55.8% |
23.4% |
20.8% |
According to Sturm Graz GAK KI-Tipp, over 2.5 goals are to be expected. The calculated xG value is 2.7 goals in the match, which of course underlines this prediction. At bet365 you get a 1.63 for this bet, so it represents a low risk.
As you can see from my main tip, I play it safe when it comes to goals and draw my personal goal line at 1.5. But combined with the Sturm victory, I almost double my bet.
The only uncertainty for me is the fact that Sturm was in action on the European stage during the week (3-0 defeat at Bournemouth). Nevertheless, I assume that the squad will be broad enough to bring GAK to its knees.
However, the Red Jackets have only scored one point less than the Ingolitsch team in the last five games. However, with the exception of Salzburg (0-0 at home), the opponents were from the lower regions of the table.
What you need to know about Sturm Graz vs. GAK betting
- Sturm Graz have won all of their last nine competitive duels with GAK.
- GAK have not lost their last four BL games (W1 D3) and have picked up nine points from the first eight matchdays, more than ever before since promotion.
- SK Sturm are unbeaten in 12 home matches in the Bundesliga (W7 D5)
- GAK has only picked up one point less from the last five league games than Sturm.
- With 16 goals conceded in eight games, GAK (together with Altach and Hartberg) has the weakest defence in the league.
