NFL 2024/25: Commanders – Cowboys
Are there more exciting games than this one this weekend? Certainly! Nevertheless, in Week 12, I am primarily interested in NFL tips where the first-class Betano bonus could be successfully used.
And in this context, I have a very specific Commanders Cowboys tip marked in red on my notepad for Sunday evening…
The Commanders Cowboys odds are surprising at first glance due to their one-sidedness, as at the beginning of the season no one could have seriously guessed that Dallas would disappoint their own fans so much in the previous 12 game weeks.
But after a terrible first half of the season, it has to be admitted that the Cowboys are performing well below their own potential. On paper, the squad is significantly better than what we have seen on the pitch in recent weeks.
However, without Dak Prescott, who is still out with an injury, the Texans’ offense is barely getting going – and his replacement Cooper Rush has also hardly been able to make a positive impact so far.
The Cowboys have now conceded five consecutive defeats, with the last two games each being by more than 23 points – a humiliation that is difficult for a team with such ambitions to digest.
Their own offense has performed particularly poorly, scoring only 16 points in the last two games, giving them the weakest efficiency in the league.
In this respect, it is no wonder that Dallas is currently going through a difficult time and the expectations of German betting providers are rather low.
On the other hand, the Washington-based team has put in surprisingly strong performances this season.
Although they suffered defeats in their last two games against the Steelers and Eagles, the Commanders still have a much better overall form curve than the Cowboys.
Quarterback Jayden Daniels, in particular, has proven to be a real game-changer and has made the Commanders’ offense one of the best in the league.
Take note: Washington currently ranks fourth in the league in points per game and second in efficiency per play.
These numbers are a testament to the fact that the surprise team of the season is not only good on paper but also a serious threat on the field.
Don’t be fooled by the results of the last two direct duels from the previous season. In the last two encounters, the Cowboys won clearly 45:10 and 38:10 – but such comfortable victories over WAS are a thing of the past.
This 2024 season is looking anything but rosy. Dallas is in free fall and Washington, under dynamic quarterback Jayden Daniels, has the quality to soon jump on the coveted play-off train itself.
The only question remaining is by how much the emerging victory over the Texans will be accompanied…
If we now look at the Commanders Cowboys odds on the Intertops app, it might be tempting to place our trust in some interesting player bets.
Despite the Cowboys’ poor form in recent weeks, their offense, with players like CeeDee Lamb, is still capable of scoring a few touchdowns.
Take note: the wide receiver has scored a touchdown in each of the last four games against the Commanders, making him a hot candidate for another score.
My betting tip is therefore: “Lamb with TD” at odds of around 2.75, even if Dallas doesn’t win in the end.
If we look at the bigger picture, we should not underestimate the Cowboys’ limited offensive power.
In their last six away games as underdogs after a home defeat, the Cowboys have always contributed to the respective over/under target of the bookmakers.
Therefore, the betting tip “Over 45 points” at odds of 1.90 seems promising enough to be active here with a corresponding bet.
But be prepared for the fact that even in the ideal case, the Cowboys should not contribute more than 24 points to the possible final score.
Conclusion: It will be difficult for Dallas to hold their own against a team as ambitious as Washington, which in its current state should gain the upper hand after two quarters at the latest.
With a well-structured offense and a stable defense, Washington will be able to more than just stand up to the Cowboys.
I wouldn’t have thought it possible in Week 1 that Washington would beat Dallas by double digits, but the injury-plagued Texans are now as easy to beat as they’ve been in a decade…
My Commanders Cowboys betting tip is therefore: Win WHATEVER with HC -9.5.
