Swiatek – Sabalenka predictions Madrid Masters

WTA Masters in Madrid, Final, Saturday, 04.05.2024

It turned out to be exactly the final the fans wanted! As many surprises as there often are in women’s tennis, the two best players in the world have struck at the Masters in Madrid.

Of course, many a tennis fan immediately remembers: didn’t Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka also play in the final in Madrid in 2023? That’s exactly what happened, and now one of them wants revenge.

When the Polish player is in a final, she is always the clear favorite, and this time is no exception. In my Swiatek Sabalenka tip, I’ll therefore tell you why I’m also taking this route and even betting on an even 2:0

Iga Swiatek hasn’t won twice in a row – what a rarity! The world No. 1 is not used to finishing several tournaments in a row without a trophy, so her determination to be back on top in Madrid is all the greater.

Problems? She has only had them once so far. At the start of the tournament, she beat Wang Xiyu 6-1, 6-4, then dispatched Sorana Cirstea 6-1, 6-1 and Sara Sorribes Tormo 6-1, 6-0.

Beatriz Haddad Maia proved to be the most challenging task. Swiatek lost the first set 4-6, but then quickly recovered and went on to win 6-0, 6-2, at least someone made life difficult for her for once.

In the semi-finals, however, there was no sign of the minor difficulties. As expected, Swiatek came through smoothly against Madison Keys, taking a 6-1, 6-3 win and was delighted to reach her next semi-final in Madrid

For the first time in the tournament, she didn’t concede a single break, taking four of her five chances herself. She had already performed really well in Madrid in 2023, but it wasn’t quite enough in the end.

Interestingly, the Polish player had managed four straight wins before the final, only needing a third once. So far, things have gone exactly the same for her, and lo and behold, her opponent in the final is identical!

Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka will meet for the ninth time in total, with the former leading 6:3. The winners have alternated for the past four matches, but since Swiatek won the last one, it would actually be Sabalenka’s turn again

Of course, I’m now taking another look at the 2023 final in Madrid. 6-3, 3-6, 6-3, the Belarusian gave Swiatek a tough fight, which she even won in the end. Can she forgive the oddsmakers for only being the underdog this time?

Although she is ranked directly behind the Pole in the world rankings, Sabalenka receives average odds of 3.50 to 1.25. Were her performances in Madrid significantly worse?

Perhaps not directly, and yet she spent considerably more time on court. Five matches, four times four sets, that must have taken its toll! Even her 6-4, 3-6, 6-3 win over Magda Linette at the start was not without a few hiccups

After her 6-1, 6-7, 6-4 win against Robin Montgomery, Sabalenka remained true to herself and her results with a 4-6, 6-4, 6-3. It was only in the quarter-finals that she was able to conserve her strength a little, winning 6-1, 6-4 against Mirra Alexandrova.

Yelena Rybakina, a top-class opponent, awaited her in the semi-finals. The two fought an intense battle, which Sabalenka eventually won 1-6, 7-5, 7-6 – that’s how you have to come back after a completely botched first set!

The 25-year-old won here in Madrid in 2021 and 2023, so she knows exactly what’s important. Of course, she is also aware that you can’t play so many unnecessary extra sets before a duel with Iga Swiatek

My Swiatek Sabalenka tip

The number 1 in the world meets the number 2 in the world, a dream final is calling. Both players are aware of each other’s strengths, although my analysis now paints a clearer picture.

Sabalenka is known for her passionate, combative play, but has needed far too many sets. Swiatek, on the other hand, almost fast-forwarded to this final, leaving much less energy.

That’s exactly why I think Sabalenka’s body might let her down a bit on Saturday. Swiatek, on the other hand, is in top shape and could “take it easy”, which is why I’m betting:

Swiatek wins outright against Sabalenka!

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