NBA Playoffs 2023/24, 2nd Round, Game 5, Thursday, May 16, 2024
At 2-2 in this series, two of the next three games will take place at OKC’s Paycom Center – an advantage for Marc Daigneault’s team!
The Western Conference Semifinals between OKC and the Mavs are more characterized by the two defenses. Game 4 ultimately saw less than 200 points scored! For my Thunder Mavericks betting tip, I’ll add a small buffer and play odds of 1.74 for “Under 214.5 points in Game 5” at NEObet
A good defense and two star players to make the difference – in a nutshell, that’s the Mavs plan, which is dictated by the squad structure.
Point one, the defense, grabs hold in the playoff series against the Oklahoma City Thunder. Dallas had a total of 13 blocks in the last game, holding the OKC offense to a field goal percentage of 38 percent. From downtown, it was only 25.0 percent successful attempts.
However, part two of the equation, two star players making the difference, was not fulfilled. In the line behind Luka Doncic’s name, the stat sheet showed 18 points (6/20 FG), which was still twice the value of Kyrie Irving (9 points, 4/11 FG).
It’s numbers like these that lead to a clear underdog role for the Mavs in Game 5 in the bookmakers’ odds comparison. If you take a look at the Crazybuzzer app, you’ll find odds of 2.45 for Dallas to win
Don’t underestimate Luka Doncic’s injured knee, which he says will limit him until the end of the playoffs. This is one reason why the reigning scoring champion has had four of his eight weakest scoring nights in his playoff career this year.
In this regular season, the Mavs star increased his three-point percentage to a career-high (38 percent) – what remains is an atrocious rate of under 25 percent in the playoffs.
The 18 points he scored the previous night are the second-lowest scoring output in a playoff game for the Slovenian.
In this condition, it doesn’t take much imagination to place a successful bet on “Luka Doncic under 27.5 points”. If you play this at Oddset, you should include the Oddset bonus
In front of a home crowd, OKC will probably continue to unpack an elite-level defense that can make life difficult for the guests from Texas.
Game 4 (100-96) was the sixth of eight playoff games for OKC in which the team did not allow 100 points!
Mark Daigneault can usually rely on his chain dog Luguentz Dort, who will stand on Luka Doncic’s feet for the entire evening. At Happybet you can now play the odds of 1.97 for “Mavericks Under 103.5 points.”
OKC’s own offense is primarily the responsibility of the runner-up in this year’s MVP voting. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has scored over 30 points in each of the last three games against Dallas and is averaging 31.8 points per night in this series.
Thanks to his mid-range jumper, OKC’s playmaker is independent of tough finishes near the basket. With his ten mid-range shots in Game 4, SGA became the second player in the last five years to finish a playoff game with 10+ mid-range shots.
If SGA continues his recent performances and scores at least 32 points in Game 5, you better have put your sports betting bonus into the odds of around 1.84.
A critical area in this match-up is the start of the game. The Thunder have consistently overslept recently.
In the last three encounters, OKC trailed noticeably after just a few minutes (6:14, 5:11, 7:16). Mark Daigneault has apparently not yet found the right starting line-up.
Perhaps Game 5 will be OKC’s fourth unsuccessful start. That would be a chance for you to take the odds of 2.20 for “Dallas wins the 1st quarter” at NEObet
But back to my Thunder Mavericks tip. The point totals for the first four games were, in exact order: 212, 229, 206, 196.
Only one of the four duels so far in this series has broken my target of “Under 214.5 points” and after Game 2, both teams’ point totals plummeted.
Dallas has played defense at a high level throughout the series, holding OKC to 104.2 points per 100 possessions in Game 4, for example, which is well below the league average.
Among other things, this is due to the high commitment of Kyrie Irving, who sacrifices his productivity on offense in favor of high intensity on defense
Inefficient Mavs must survive two of the next three games in this series at the Paycom Center and win at least one of them, otherwise the playoffs are history.
For Jason Kidd and his team to be successful, a high effort on defense is still important. OKC is also doing this with great success in the post-season.
An average of 210.75 points per game have been scored in this series, with the last two encounters remaining below this limit.
My Thunder Mavericks tip for you is: Under 214.5 points scored in Game 5!
