The 2025 Tour de France favorites: Who will take the yellow jersey?
An epic four-way battle for the yellow jersey is shaping up for the 2025 Tour de France. The four best stage racers of the present day will be at the start of this year’s Tour de France.
They are last year’s winner Tadej Pogacar (TdF winner in 2020, 2021 and 2024), Jonas Vingegaard (Tour champion in 2022 and 2023 and runner-up in 2024), Remco Evenepoel (Vuelta winner in 2022 and third in the Tour in 2024) and Primoz Roglic (four-time Vuelta winner, Giro winner in 2023 and second in the Tour in 2020).
Which of these four Tour de France favorites will ride to Paris in the yellow jersey in 2025?
Tadej Pogacar, the number one Tour favorite for 2025
Tadej Pogacar comes to this year’s Tour de France as the defending champion. And if the experts’ and betting companies’ predictions for the 2025 Tour de France are anything to go by, then the chances are good that he will win the yellow jersey again.
His victory in the Criterium Dauphine in particular shows why he is the top contender for the 2025 Tour victory.
Pogacar won the TdF dress rehearsal with three stage victories. The 27-year-old Slovenian was also clearly superior to the other Tour de France 2025 favorites Jonas Vingegaard and Remco Evenepoel.
Pogacar has ridden a total of nine races this year and won six of them (including the Tour of Flanders and Liège-Bastogne-Liège). What’s more, he has not missed the podium in any of the nine races.
What makes Pogacar the biggest favorite for the 2025 Tour de France is that he has arguably the strongest team at his side. Joao Almeida and Adam Yates are such strong support riders that they could even challenge for the overall victory themselves.
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Jonas Vingegaard: The first challenger to Pogacar?
Jonas Vingegaard is considered Pogacar’s biggest rival among the Tour de France 2025 favorites ahead of the start of the Tour. The 28-year-old Dane won the Tour de France in 2022 and 2023 and finished second last year.
Can Vingegaard win the yellow jersey again?
His Jumbo team calls him the “best Vingegaard ever,” but he has yet to prove it in the run-up to the race. In the Criterium Dauphine, he was unable to keep up with Pogacar in the mountains. He performed well in the time trial, but was beaten by Evenepoel.
However, the Dane has all the right ingredients: Vingegaard is an absolute mountain specialist (especially in high mountains), a very strong time trialist and can also rely on a very strong team.
Vingegaard’s advantage in the battle for the yellow jersey is that Pogacar doesn’t have to focus solely on him. In the role of the hunter, he and his strong team could put the Slovenian all-rounder under considerable pressure.
Tour winner prediction for Remco Evenepoel
Remco Evenepoel is considered one of the top talents in Belgian and international cycling and has the best prerequisites to win the Tour de France. But will this be the case this year?
Evenepoel appears high on the list of Tour de France 2025 favorites before the start of the Tour – but behind Pogacar and Vingegaard.
At the Criterium Dauphine, he had no chance against the top duo in the mountain stages. However, it was similar last year, and he then rode a strong Tour, finishing third overall.
In any case, he is the strongest time trialist among the Tour de France 2025 favorites (two-time world champion and 2024 Olympic champion in the race against the clock). The mountains will show whether he can keep up with Pogacar and Vingegaard.
His disadvantage compared to the other big Tour 2025 favorites is his team. His team is not as strong as the UAE and Jumbo teams.
Who will win the 2025 Tour – perhaps Primoz Roglic?
The fourth in the big quartet of Tour de France favorites for 2025 is Primoz Roglic.
The 35-year-old Slovenian has won the Vuelta Espana four times and the Giro d’Italia once in 2023. What he’s missing is a Tour de France victory. In 2020, he came close with a second place finish, but after that, the Grande Boucle didn’t treat him particularly well. Time and again, crashes forced him to abandon the race.
This was also the case in this year’s Giro d’Italia, which he had to abandon before the 16th stage. Since then, the Red Bull captain has been preparing for the Tour de France. Without racing.
Roglic delivered a strong time trial in the Giro, but he failed to impress in the mountains. On top of that, he is very often – too often (!) – involved in crashes.
In terms of team strength, Roglic will also be at a disadvantage compared to Pogacar and Vingegaard. With talent Florian Lipowitz, who was supposed to be given a free role, only Alexander Vlasov is slated as a strong climber in the Red Bull team.
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Three more Tour de France 2025 favorites
Who else is among the Tour de France 2025 favorites behind the top quartet of Pogacar, Vingeaard, Evenepoel, and Roglic?
Carlos Rodriguez will captain the Ineos team in this year’s Tour de France. The 24-year-old Spaniard has finished in the top 10 overall in the Tour for the past two years: fifth in 2023 and seventh in 2024. Is there more to come this year?
One rider who could put pressure on the four Tour favorites is Felix Gall. The Austrian made a strong showing in 2023 with a stage win and eighth place overall. In the run-up to this Tour, the 27-year-old delivered a strong performance in the Tour de Suisse.
Mattias Skjelmose is also expected to finish well in the overall standings. The 24-year-old Dane from the Lidl-Trek Team finished fifth in last year’s Vuelta.
With Joao Almeida, there is even a co-favorite for the Tour overall classification in Pogacar’s team.
Last year, the 26-year-old Portuguese rider finished fourth overall in Paris, almost as an afterthought. Should Pogacar encounter problems during the Tour or be forced to withdraw, Almeida would be a potential contender for victory. Almeida recently dominated the Tour de Suisse with three stage wins and first place overall.
Roglic also has internal competition within his Red Bull team. German talent Florian Lipowitz (24) could move from a supporting role to captain if Roglic runs into difficulties.
