Serie A, Monday, 28.04.2025 at 18:30
Udinese seems to just want to let the 2024/25 season peter out. Deep in Serie A no-man’s-land, the team’s only goal is probably to get through the 38th matchday without any major injuries.
Does that make a Udinese Bologna tip on the visitors inevitable? The best betting providers with Apple Pay would probably answer “Yes!” I, on the other hand, have slight doubts about this.
The situation at Udinese could hardly be bleaker at the moment: five defeats in a row, four of them without scoring a goal – the hosts’ form is pointing downwards more steeply than the DAX on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange at times.
The 0-2 defeat against Torino during the week was also symbolic of a team that currently lacks both confidence and determination on the pitch.
Particularly bitter: Udinese has little to no chance against teams that are currently better placed in the overall standings.
Only two of the 17 previous matches of this kind have been won, compared to ten defeats.
The last meeting with Bologna ended 1-1, but given the current form of the northern Italians, a huge improvement will be needed on Monday to take something away from the game.
Udinese are a shadow of their former selves, especially at home. The last two home games against Verona and Milan were both lost without scoring a goal.
If Bologna also keeps a clean sheet, it would be the first time since April 2021 that Udinese would suffer three consecutive home defeats without scoring a goal.
However, there is a glimmer of hope: historically, things have gone quite well against Bologna. Only one of the last nine home games against the “Rossoblù” has been lost, with six wins and two draws. That’s what my Udinese Bologna prediction is based on.
But the numbers from the past are of little help when the current performance gives so little cause for hope.
There needs to be a huge improvement in attack in particular, as neither Iker Bravo nor the other forwards are currently looking like the troublemakers we had hoped for.
Bravo does have a slight penchant for turbulent games: both of his goals this season have come in matches that ended 3-2. It remains to be seen whether he can make his mark again against Bologna’s solid defense.
The mood among the visitors is completely different: Bologna is riding a wave of success. First, they defeated Inter 1-0 in the league, then they advanced to the Coppa Italia final – their first in over 50 years!
Things are also looking great in Serie A: Vincenzo Italiano’s team is currently in fifth place and can put further pressure on the competition with a win in Udine.
Bologna has shown that it has matured, especially away from home. It has only lost once on the road against teams currently ranked tenth or lower – five wins and four draws speak for themselves.
Remarkably, Bologna scored exactly two goals in six of these away games.
However, those hoping for an early offensive fireworks display may be disappointed: Bologna, along with Udinese, is the team with the fewest goals in the first quarter of an game – only two goals were scored in this period.
On the other hand, the Rossoblù regularly turn up the heat after the break. Only Inter have scored more goals in the second half this season.
Players such as Thijs Dallinga, who last scored in the Coppa Italia after the break, regularly ensure that Bologna often decide their games in the closing stages.
All of this leads me to believe that most goals will be scored in the second half, for which you can expect odds of around 1.90 in any decent sports betting app.
Bologna may be in better form, but with odds of 3.45 on average, a draw still offers a little more value than an away win for the Rossoblu in my opinion.
If only because the last two direct encounters ended 1-1.
Conclusion: This is not a game that Bologna is guaranteed to win.
If Udinese doesn’t let themselves go this time, a third consecutive 1-1 draw in direct encounters against the Bianconeri is entirely possible.
In any case, I don’t expect Jaka Bijol’s yellow card suspension to completely throw the hosts off track.
My Udinese Bologna prediction is therefore: Double chance 1X & Under 3.5 goals.
