Bundesliga 28th matchday, Sunday, 06.04.2025 at 17:30
Take a deep breath, please! Union Berlin is getting further and further away from the critical zone and, as things stand, has nothing more to do with relegation.
The Irons have apparently made it their mission to perform at their best against the top teams.
In my Union Berlin Wolfsburg betting tip, however, the upcoming opponent is not at the top of the league.
The Lower Saxony team recently lost to all the teams at the bottom of the table, and even lost at home to Heidenheim.
It was therefore anything but easy for me to think of a suitable bet for this game. It turned out to be the combination of Double Chance 1X and Under 3.5 goals. Why? Quite simply because all Union sympathizers can look forward to the history that follows later.
Why not consider a home win right away? Well, because the Berliners first have to find their way back to their strength at the Alte Försterei and Wolfsburg is much more feared away than at home. As you can see, maybe you should go for a draw right away.
You can now find all betting options and interesting statistics in my analysis. I am limiting the scope of a spectacle, but even a game with one or even no goals can be really interesting.
The betting providers’ prediction?
A home win from the last six months? Phew, these are not good times for the fans in the stands of the Alte Försterei. Union urgently needs to get stronger at home again, so the odds of 2.45 are quite surprising.
Wolfsburg, namely, has slightly higher values for itself, here we ended up with 2.90. The team is third in the away table, but: In the Bundesliga, Union Berlin has never won!
Five of the Wolves’ last nine games have ended in a draw. Since the last ten results have all been very close, we should perhaps keep an eye on the draw against Union at odds of 3.20.
AI Prediction Union Berlin vs Wolfsburg: Darauf tippt ChatGPT
It is quite interesting to see what ChatGPT has to say about this game and I’ll tell you right away: I don’t agree with all of the betting tips. In particular, the bet that carries a high risk seems rather unlikely to me.
A home win with at least a two-goal lead is on the cards here. Something Union have never managed this season! Since all of Wolfsburg’s away defeats have only been by a single goal, I almost categorically rule out this suggestion.
With an Over 2.5 goals you often do well in our Bundesliga tips, but this time I’m not so sure. The Lower Saxony team didn’t score against Augsburg and Heidenheim, but they scored in their last four away games at Union. Here I would probably have stayed with the Under 2.5 goals.
But the BTS should be included in the AI suggestions as a classic, shouldn’t it? Since the beginning of March, Berlin has played twice to zero, while Wolfsburg has only managed to do so away from home in Hoffenheim, St. Pauli and Kiel. So here it could well be that the tip pays off in the end.
Analysis: Union Berlin vs Wolfsburg
With seven matches to go, Union Berlin are eight points away from the relegation place, and the gap to 18th place is even ten points. You don’t want to be too optimistic, but… things are looking very good for avoiding relegation.
For the first time since the fall, the team has just managed to avoid losing three times in a row – right at the beginning of this season, the streak could even be extended to four games.
Were the opponents of the last few weeks perhaps relatively easy? Definitely not! 2-1 at Eintracht Frankfurt, 1-1 against FC Bayern and 2-1 in Freiburg, Union collected results that you wouldn’t necessarily expect.
Curious: before these three strong performances, they had lost 1-0 to Holstein Kiel, which really doesn’t go together. Above all, many cannot understand why Union has lost its home strength.
Odds analysis
A half-time lead since the beginning of October? When Union Berlin play at home, things are definitely not going well from the start. Since Wolfsburg were only behind away from home in Freiburg and Munich, the double chance X2 may be accurate.
If the odds of 1.40 are too low for you, you can also bet on a guest lead, as the value quickly jumps to 3.50.
In eight of their last ten home games, the Irons have not scored before half-time – if that doesn’t work out on Sunday either, you can get odds of 1.78 at Betano.
Deciding on an outcome bet is never easy. Since Wolfsburg have drawn three times in the last two months and both teams are known for close results, I would also go for a 1-1 draw in the direct duel – in the Bet365 app, that gets us odds of 6.50.
Union Berlin vs. Wolfsburg: Which strength strikes?
Actually, the Alte Försterei is an absolute fortress, but with one win in the last ten games, that can no longer be said. Eleven goals have been scored, which is not necessarily a strong figure either.
Well, a lot of it has to do with the fact that the team just can’t convert its chances. With a rate of just over ten percent, they are in 18th place in this table, well behind the leaders.
At the same time, however, Berlin manages to score 42% of its goals from set pieces – how convenient that opponents Wolfsburg have already conceded 17 goals in this way.
At least the defense often comes up trumps, with Union conceding just 14 goals at home. Only Mainz and Augsburg are better with twelve. Three goals in total is the absolute maximum, more have never been scored at the Alte Försterei in 2024/25.
Five times it was exactly three. So if you want to take the risk at Interwetten, you can say: “We’ll see exactly three goals on Sunday too.” The odds are very profitable at 3.85.
Union is looking forward to a dream result
Historically, fans can look forward to this clash. 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 2-0, 2-2, 2-2, these are the results of previous home games against Wolfsburg. They have never lost in the Bundesliga or DFB Cup.
Incidentally, of the last eight games, regardless of the stadium, six ended with fewer than 2.5 goals – and the other two, as you may have guessed, ended with exactly three goals.
Wolfsburg would probably be happy just to get a win under their belt on Sunday. After the 0-1 defeat to Augsburg, they lost to Heidenheim by the same scoreline.
The fact that Europe is still possible is actually unbelievable with a tally of ten wins, eight draws and nine defeats. Only two of the last ten games have been won, the odds are no longer good.
With six goals from the last seven games, coach Ralph Hasenhüttl is certainly not satisfied either. The Wolves have already lost 15 points after taking the lead, only Stuttgart (18) can top that.
My Union Berlin Wolfsburg tip:
Union Berlin is on the verge of avoiding relegation. The last three appearances against really strong opponents have convinced and surprised me at the same time. Now the fans want their team to also overcome their home weakness at the end of the season.
Offensively, the Alte Försterei is not doing very well. In my analysis, I was able to reveal that in East Berlin, in general, few goals are scored, which fits perfectly with Wolfsburg’s last results.
This in turn leads me to not only opt for Double Chance 1X (also based on the direct comparison), but also to say:
There won’t be more than three goals if Berlin wins a point!
