Gold Cup 2025, Semifinals, Thursday, 03.07.2025 at 01:00
According to the best betting providers with PayPal, the Gold Cup semi-finals will see a clash between David and Goliath.
In my USA Guatemala prediction, I don’t expect the miracle of St. Louis to happen. Instead, the US boys should be able to qualify for the final without too much trouble after an extremely strong first half.
Given how Canada started this tournament, hardly anyone would have expected them to be out so early. The 6-0 win over Honduras in their opening game was a demonstration of power – pace, determination, clear superiority in terms of play.
Everything pointed to a smooth ride to the final. But then came Guatemala. The rank outsiders put in a rock-solid defensive performance in the quarter-finals, allowing few clear chances and dragging Canada into a tough game with few highlights.
The score was 1-1 at the end of regular time, and Guatemala kept their nerve in the ensuing penalty shootout.
The team not only pulled off what is probably the biggest upset of the tournament so far, but also shattered hopes of a dream semifinal between the USA and Canada.
Instead, Guatemala has earned its place in the final four thanks to its fighting spirit, discipline, and a united team performance.
For Canada, this setback leaves only frustration, as they could have achieved much more given their ambitions and squad. Guatemala, on the other hand, continues to live the underdog dream. Who knows, maybe another sensation is in store.
The story is somewhat reminiscent of the big surprise teams of years gone by – and that’s exactly what makes tournaments like this so exciting: when no one expects it, anything is possible.
As big as Guatemala’s surprise in the quarterfinals was, I personally don’t believe in a real soccer miracle in the semifinals. Objectively speaking, the difference in quality between the two teams is simply too great.
While the US boys are fielding numerous established pros from the MLS and European leagues, hardly anyone in Guatemala plays at an internationally competitive level except for Aaron Herrera.
The majority of the squad earn their living either in lower US leagues or play in their domestic league – and, with all due respect, that is hardly a benchmark for the top of the Gold Cup.
Added to this is the historical record: in the last 21 direct encounters with the USA, Guatemala has won only once – that speaks for itself.
Even if you have to acknowledge the impressive defensive performance against Canada, it will be a completely different challenge against the pace, physicality, and creativity of the Americans.
The US team will have learned from Canada’s mistake and should be more focused.
Guatemala will try to control the game again on Wednesday night with a fighting spirit and a solid defense – but this time it probably won’t be enough.
I expect a fairly comfortable victory for the USA, even if it may take a while for the first goal to be scored. Nevertheless, Navarro should see his net bulge several times before the break!
Incidentally, the US didn’t exactly shine in their quarter-final against Costa Rica – advancing only on penalties doesn’t exactly scream dominance. Nevertheless, I still see Guatemala as a step below the “Ticos” in terms of quality.
While Costa Rica has significantly more international experience and individual class, Guatemala tends to thrive on commitment and team spirit. That won’t be enough this time against an athletically and technically superior US team.
I therefore expect the Americans to seal the deal in regular time. It may take a while for the spell to be broken, but in the end, 90 minutes and several goals should be enough to secure a place in the final.
Looking at the USA Guatemala odds and the top offers from various sports betting providers, I have come to the conclusion that a simple bet on the favorite should pay off.
However, the US odds for a win within 90 minutes are only 1.28 on average, which is why I would definitely add one or two additional conditions here.
I recommend “Half-time/Full-time 1/1,” as the US boys should push hard early in the game. After all, the match is taking place in the familiar City Park in St. Louis.
Conclusion: The USA are playing at home – and that alone is a small advantage.
Even though the big names are still missing from the current squad and will not be playing until the 2026 World Cup, the existing players should still be more than enough to put Guatemala in their place.
The individual class, pace, and physical superiority clearly favor the hosts. If everything goes according to plan, it should be a fairly one-sided game. A confident 3-0 or even 4-0 victory is definitely within the realm of possibility for me.
My USA Guatemala prediction: The USA will score over 2.5 goals.
