Serie A, Monday, 12.05.2025 at 18:30
Will they fail to qualify for Europe at the end of what has been a decent season, at least via the league? AC Florence is facing its decisive three games and can’t afford any more slip-ups.
The team has a tough game ahead of it on Monday, as its opponent is fighting bitterly against relegation. Accordingly, I’ll now reveal in my Venezia Fiorentina tip why I expect a lot of fighting – and why I’m betting on under 2.5 goals.
Four points behind fourth place, but with three teams still ahead of them? It looks like we’re in for a heart-stopping finale for the international spots!
Fiorentina are right in the thick of it and know that anything is possible: Champions League, Europa League, Conference League, or nothing at all. The results have been mixed recently, with two narrow wins followed by a 0-1 defeat to AS Roma.
I’ll start my analysis by saying that there is a big difference between La Viola playing at home and away. They have won eleven games at home, but only six away.
Since the end of November, they have won twice away from home, with four of their six victories being very narrow and only offering a one-goal advantage. Also interesting: Fiorentina last kept a clean sheet away from home on November 24.
Four of their last six away games have ended without a point. More than two goals away from home? Yes, but only in the 6-0 win against Lecce. Ten times, the Viola have scored a maximum of one goal.
If you want to bet on “Under 1.5 goals Florence” on Monday, you can get odds of 1.51 at Bwin. In addition, this bookmaker offers a double deposit bonus with a voucher code.
I would also like to mention that Fiorentina have conceded goals in the first half in five of their last six away games. This could be a slightly riskier bet for you.
Namely, that the underdogs from Venice will score before the half-time whistle. The odds for this at Oddset are 2.40. How is the team dealing with the double burden ahead of this matchday?
On Thursday, Florence played the second leg of their semi-final against Betis Sevilla. After going 1-2 down, the Italians pushed themselves to the limit and were eliminated in dramatic fashion with a 2-2 draw after extra time – that must have taken a lot out of them.
The 0-0 draw against Venezia in the first leg was rather disappointing. However, history is not really meaningful in this case, as there have only been three direct encounters since 2004.
If we take a look at our PayPal bookmakers, we see that the odds are 2.35 to 3.15, so the winning odds are not that different. Venezia desperately needs the three points in this match, as they are threatened with relegation.
They are below the line, but only one point behind safety. Want to know why Venezia are so far down? It’s simple: because only one of their last 18 games has ended with three points – and even that 1-0 win against bottom-placed Monza was a close call.
On the other hand, however, they have only lost two of their last ten games, with the team sharing the points 14 times in total. 49 goals conceded? That’s not too bad, with only four games this season seeing them concede more than two.
Away from home, Venice are completely winless with nine draws and nine defeats. 31 goals conceded? At home, they have conceded only 18. Things are generally better in their own stadium, but the goals-against average here is only 1.8.
Two of the last 18 games, regardless of venue, have seen more than 2.5 goals. At home, they have scored a maximum of two goals since December 2024. I would also like to point out that Venezia have never conceded more than two goals in front of their own fans.
One team is fighting against relegation, the other wants to seize its last chance to qualify for the Champions League. There are no excuses for Florence on Monday; a relegation candidate like Venezia must be clearly defeated.
But it’s not that easy to win in Venice. The offensively harmless team can defend and desperately needs the points in the fight to stay up. I’m sure this game won’t be a walk in the park for the visitors.
Since Venezia have conceded a maximum of two goals at home and the visitors from Tuscany are struggling with their away form, I’m going for the following bet:
There won’t be more than 2.5 goals!
