Serie A play-offs, Friday, 24.05.2024
We still don’t know in Italy which three teams might make it into Serie A together next year. Two names have already been confirmed, but the third is still unclear.
With my Venezia Palermo betting tip, which is suitable for bookmakers, I’ll shed some light on the situation. In it, I suggest that the home side are increasingly ripe for a return to the top flight thanks to a great performance
Venice should no longer just be known for its tourism and the floating old town, but soon also for its top-class soccer – this is the declared aim of the club management and the new investors.
The first attempt a few years ago to establish a permanent place in Serie A failed, but from 2024/25 everything is set to change.
And indeed, the constant influx of talented players from northern Europe is certainly capable of helping the club achieve this ambitious goal.
But before the “Lagunari” can actually be congratulated on their successful promotion, a few more play-off games have to be successfully contested
The play-off system in Serie B is one of the most complicated in Europe. This is because the top two clubs are automatically promoted, while third and fourth qualify directly for the semi-finals.
In the meantime, places five to eight are decided between the two remaining semi-finalists in respective knockout matches – this year this involved Palermo, Sampdoria, Catanzaro and Brescia.
At this point, I would like to point out that this was no insignificant success. Palermo beat Sampdoria 2-0 – an established Serie A club that was surprisingly relegated last season and has now finally failed in its attempt to win immediate promotion again
However, Palermo were unable to build on this success. The semi-final first leg against Venice was lost in an extremely uneventful match.
In view of the few chances created, the game could have ended 0-0, but the Venetians managed to score a goal in the second half thanks to Pierini – and with an xG value of just 0.39.
It is therefore clear that the “Lagunari” were able to maneuver themselves into a very promising starting position. With the home crowd behind them and only one competitive match defeat at home since the New Year, I would personally be reluctant to bet against VFC.
Venice have won their last three Serie B home games before the start of the play-off phase. It is interesting to note that two of these victories came over clubs such as Cremonese (2-1) and Brescia (2-0), who were also in the promotion race.
Incidentally, our paths could soon cross again with Cremonese if the relegated side can beat Catanzaro in the second leg of the other semi-final tie after the 2-2 draw. In fact, I think such a clash is very likely.
But what can we expect in the second leg between the Veneziani and the Sicilians? To be honest, I think the visitors have already squandered their best opportunity to reach the final. Because form doesn’t speak in their favor
The aforementioned 2-0 win over Sampdoria was Palermo’s only victory since the end of the last international break in early April (3 draws, 2 defeats).
Furthermore, Venice not only proved to be too big a team in the first leg (1:0), but also in mid-March in the matchday 30 clash, when the “Lagunari” even came out on top 3:0.
Most of the data discussed so far suggests that the team with the higher ranking in the regular season will now also win the second leg.
Normally, the sports betting apps confront us at this point with home win odds well below the doubling limit of 2.00, but that’s not the case this time!
In fact, the odds offered by some selected providers such as Bet365 are slightly higher, which makes a corresponding bet on the Veneziani all the more interesting. Their home strength is indisputable
And it is precisely this home strength that leads me to believe that I have identified a very good offer among the available Venezia Palermo odds. Especially since the “Lagunari” are the best Serie B home team of the 2023/24 season with 42 points.
In addition, no other stadium in this division scored more league goals, with an average of 3.5 goals scored in matches at the Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
Here is the reason for my chosen additional condition: In each of Venice’s last seven home games, the men from the picturesque city have always and without exception scored at least two goals.
Conclusion: A home win bet would be enough in view of the above-average odds. If only because Venice are much more confident at home than away.
But that is precisely why I expect that the team will not settle for less than two goals scored at the Stadio Pierluigi Penzo this time either.
You can leave out this additional condition in your Venezia Palermo betting tip, but you can use the Bwin app to create a great combination bet that promises interesting odds of around 2.45.
My tip: Tip 1 & Over 1.5 goals
