VfB Stuttgart – Eintracht Frankfurt betting tip
At least in one discipline, Eintracht Frankfurt is unsurpassed this season. No Bundesliga team has shared the points more often than SGE (12) over the course of the season.
Otherwise, however, the Hessians have lost out to VfB Stuttgart in many categories, which explains why the Swabians are the clear favorites.
Stuttgart have been unbeaten for ten matchdays (8 wins, 2 draws) and have justified ambitions of finishing runners-up in the championship
Sebastian Hoeneß and his team have already played in five top Bundesliga matches this season. Every single one has ended in a VfB victory.
Placing a soccer bet on a “VfB Stuttgart win” is not very appealing with maximum odds of 1.55, which is why I tried a different option.
In the end, I decided to bet on “Frankfurt under 0.5 goals”. A bold but well-founded VfB Stuttgart Frankfurt tip, which gives me the chance of odds of 2.60 at Interwetten
The prediction of the betting providers?
There is a huge gap between VfB Stuttgart and Eintracht Frankfurt in the table for the second half of the season. The Swabians collected eleven points more than the Hessians over the course of the second half of the season.
You can currently find the maximum odds of 1.55 for a win for the home side in the Interwetten app. Eintracht Frankfurt consistently achieve betting odds of 5.25 and more.
If the draw kings are in the game, the odds for a points split should at least be mentioned. However, the potential 13th draw for SGE receives little attention in my thoughts with odds of up to 4.60.
Analysis: VfB Stuttgart vs Frankfurt
VfB Stuttgart are playing the best season in the club’s history with 60 points after 28 match days and are currently on track for a possible runners-up spot.
Eintracht Frankfurt, on the other hand, have had a mixed second half of the season, winning only three out of eleven games and have not won in three matchdays.
In the battle for Europe, the visitors can count themselves lucky that their rivals have also dropped a few points in recent weeks.
A surprising, but for me not decisive, statistic shows that VfB Stuttgart have not won any of their last five competitive matches against Frankfurt in their own stadium. But I won’t be blinded by that
Much more interesting for my VfB Stuttgart Frankfurt betting tip are the current qualities on the pitch. The two Bundesliga clubs that have scored the highest percentage of their goals from play in the league (VfB: 83%; SGE: 93%) will meet in the MHPArena.
However, the counter-check reassured me about my bet. Only three teams conceded fewer expected goals from play than the Swabians (22.86 xGA).
Defending set-pieces has also not been a cause for concern for Hoeneß’ eleven so far. Here too, only three league rivals have conceded fewer expected goals than VfB (7.55 xGA).
In addition, the SGE offense is in a bit of a hole. During the previous three match days, Frankfurt never scored more than one goal of their own
Quota analysis
The distribution of the odds is completely in line with my expectations. Stuttgart have been unbeaten for ten matchdays and have collected the most points in the second half of the season (26) after Leverkusen (31).
Frankfurt (15) are eleven points behind the home side in seventh place in the table for the second half of the season.
In eleven games in the second half of the season, the Hessians (16) have already scored ten goals fewer than third-placed Stuttgart (26).
In addition, the hosts have scored significantly fewer goals (12) than the Eagles. Under these circumstances, I’m happy to use my Interwetten voucher for a “VfB Stuttgart win with handicap -1” and play the odds of 2.40.
My eyes light up in a similar way when I look at the bet “VfB Stuttgart win to zero”, which is an addition to my VfB Stuttgart Frankfurt tip. However, for the additional risk of the odds of 2.80, I recommend a free bet
The attack currently lacks options
The development of Eintracht Frankfurt under Dino Toppmöller has stagnated in recent weeks. Most recently, the SGE remained winless in three consecutive Bundesliga matches and scored only two goals of their own.
Two of the last three matches (Union Berlin, Dortmund) revealed the difficulties in the attacking play excellently. On both match days, Eintracht scored around 1.00 expected goals.
There are several explanations for the lack of momentum in attack. Firstly, top attacker Omar Marmoush is out of form and has not scored for five matchdays.
In addition, new signing Hugo Ekitiké has struggled almost constantly with his fitness and muscular problems, meaning that the 21-year-old has not provided more than one assist in eight games. The long-term injury to Sasa Kalajdzic is almost even more painful
Possession in the wrong areas
It would be too short-sighted to hold the situation in the forward line solely responsible for the recent lack of offensive power.
Rather, there appear to be a number of weaknesses in the overall match plan. Although Frankfurt have an average of 52.6% possession (6th), they do not incorporate enough changes of rhythm into their build-up play.
As a result, the ball circulates far too often in the less dangerous areas of the pitch. Only three teams have a lower percentage of possession in the attacking third than SGE (26%).
It is worth going into even more depth here. Of all the Bundesliga teams, the Hessians are among the five teams with the lowest percentage of shots from inside the opposition’s five-meter area (7%).
It’s no wonder that the Eagles are only in mid-table in the German top flight (10th) with 38.8 expected goals. The comparison with VfB Stuttgart, who have already scored 61.4 xG (2nd), is particularly painful
In its current state, Stuttgart is absolutely not the club to revive an offense against. VfB have kept a clean sheet in three of their previous four Bundesliga games.
This took the home side’s total number of clean sheets to nine games – only Leverkusen (14) are better in this category.
However, it is not only the actual results that give the impression of a well-orchestrated defense. Stuttgart have conceded just 31.2 expected goals – a top-3 figure in the German top flight!
Many spectators, however, will remember the attack in particular and that is hardly possible with this attractive soccer from the Swabians.
First and foremost, the eyes on the pitch follow VfB’s best striker this season: Serhou Guirassy. On the last matchday against BVB (1:0), the attacker scored the Swabians’ ninth goal of the season.
The 24-goal man stands for top quality in finishing. It’s definitely worth focusing on the odds of 1.80 for “Guirassy scores” at Winamax
My Stuttgart Frankfurt tip:
Frankfurt are not playing a good second half of the season and don’t have the right ideas to challenge opposing defenses, especially in attack.
Stuttgart are having a unique season, playing excellent soccer both offensively and defensively and have not conceded a goal in three of their previous four league games.
In addition, the Swabians have only conceded 14 goals in 14 home games. Almost 36 percent of the home games were even completed without conceding a goal.
My VfB Stuttgart Frankfurt tip: Frankfurt under 0.5 goals!
