Kategoria Superiore, Playoff Final, Monday, 12.05.2025 at 20:00
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This Monday, we’re turning our attention to Albania. That’s where the new champion will be crowned, and with my Egnatia Vllaznia tip, you can be there live.
Albania does things differently – and for once, that’s not just a cliché.
To win the Kategoria Superiore, teams not only have to perform well over 36 match days, but also have to prove themselves in a small four-team tournament, where the best teams from the regular season compete against each other in two semi-finals and a grand final.
What’s curious is that if there’s no winner after 90 minutes, there’s no extra time or penalty shootout – instead, the team with the better position in the final table goes through.
This exact scenario played out on the last matchday, when Egnatia only needed a scoreless draw against Partizani Tirana in the semifinals because they had finished first in the league.
It’s clear that this team is now the top favorite among the best betting providers with Apple Pay going into the final – at least on paper. But it’s not quite that simple.
Their opponents in the final are Vllaznia, who not only knocked Dinamo Tirana out of the other semi-final with a 2-1 win, but have also been something of a force lurking in the background for weeks.
With second place in the regular season and an impressive final sprint, they have honestly earned their place in the final.
And the fact that it’s now coming down to a big showdown between first and second feels somehow fitting – like a fitting end to a close season in which no team was able to pull away.
Nevertheless, looking at the head-to-head record, it quickly becomes clear that Vllaznia has regularly had the upper hand against Egnatia.
Egnatia has won only one of the last seven matches, and that was quite a while ago. The rest of the games? Close, tough, mostly low-scoring – and with the advantage going to the boys from Shkodra.
So it’s not unreasonable to think that this final could be a tough affair. There is a clear trend in knockout games between these two teams: few goals, lots of tactics.
The last four cup matches between them, for example, all ended with fewer than three goals – and that is no coincidence.
Egnatia is known for its solid defense and for minimizing risk when it matters.
Vllaznia, on the other hand, has acquired a certain cleverness in dealing with nervous games over the years.
And with a man like Bekim Balaj, the league’s top scorer, who scored twice in the semi-final, they have exactly the kind of player who can make the difference in tight games.
For me, the key lies in expectations: Egnatia, who are currently out of form, are under pressure. They were top of the table, they scraped through the semi-finals and now they have to deliver.
Vllaznia, on the other hand, has fought its way into this final, is coming in with momentum and has a good record against its opponent.
The bookmakers still see Egnatia as slight favorites, but that gives sports betting experts like me even more room for value bets on the boys from Shkodra.
Incidentally, if you’re with a provider such as Bet-at-home (and want to pay with PayPal), you’ll not only find a very extensive range of bets on this final, but you can also pick up a number of interesting Vllaznia Egnatia odds.
I would specifically recommend exactly two Vllaznia Egnatia tips.
Firstly: “Under 2.5 goals” – available at around 1.55 to 1.70, because this game is highly unlikely to be an offensive spectacle.
And secondly: “Double chance 1X” on Vllaznia. These odds are around 1.60 and not only cover a draw, but also a slight away win for the boys from Shkodra.
Conclusion: The cards are being reshuffled! The few points that separated the two teams in the league will no longer matter on Monday in Tirana.
It should be a close contest in which neither side will want to risk making a decisive mistake. Nevertheless, I see Vllaznia with a slight advantage in what is overall a very evenly matched game.
My Vllaznia Egnatia tip: Under 2.5 goals.
