Bundesliga 4th matchday, Saturday, 09/21/2024 at 3:30 pm
FC Bayern is back where it belongs – at least that’s how everyone who supports the German record champions sees it. They are the only team to have won all three opening games, so let’s take a look at what we can expect in the Werder Bremen Bayern tip.
I’ll give you my prediction right away: it won’t be boring, also because SVW is also taking part in scoring goals. The combination bet from BTS and Over 2.5 goals can of course be proven by a number of facts collected.
What role does it play that the Hanseatic team was able to win against the record champions for the first time in 32 consecutive games without a win? Their own fans probably count the home games without a three-pointer, and that has been the case for almost 18 years!
The betting providers’ prediction?
Actually, it’s business as usual when FC Bayern play: once again, a win bet is not worthwhile. An average odds of 1.35 is on offer if you want to bet on a clean sweep.
On the other hand, the odds for SV Werder Bremen are, how could it be otherwise, significantly higher. On average, odds of 7.40 can be achieved here, which is quite a lot for a team playing at home.
The Bremen team would probably be very satisfied with a draw. When was the last time there was a draw at home against Bayern? In March 2009! Nevertheless, I’ll tell you what a point draw would bring: 5.30 on average.
KI-Prediction Werder Bremen vs Bayern: That’s what ChatGPT tips
Is the artificial intelligence one step ahead of us when it comes to betting predictions for this game? Of course, I don’t want to go that far, but it is quite interesting what ChatGPT spits out about it.
When asked which high-risk tip might be correct here, we get the answer “Werder Bremen to win”. Admittedly, SVW won recently at the Isar, but since the last home win was in October 2006, I would refrain from this bet.
And lo and behold, the AI has a completely different bet in mind in terms of medium risk. A victory for the favorite with a HC of -1 is called. Six of the last nine home defeats were very close, and Werder has not been beaten in eight games. The handicap bet? Not necessarily my favorite!
The fact that both teams will score seems to be a safe bet for the bookmakers. This is also the reason for the AI assumption to suggest the BTS. Since Bayern have conceded far more than 20 goals in 2024, I fully agree with this bet.
Analysis: Werder Bremen vs Bayern
Is it the best or the most difficult job in the world to be the coach of FC Bayern? Vincent Kompany is very lucky that he came to Munich after a season without a title and everyone is saying: It can only get better!
Expectations are high and even if not everything has been brilliantly staged yet: the start promises a lot. Not only because a few days ago in the Champions League Dinamo Zagreb was shot out of the arena with 9:2.
But also because FCB is back at the top of the Bundesliga for the first time in a year. 3:2 against Wolfsburg, 2:0 against Freiburg and 6:1 against Kiel, with these results they fought their way to the top of the table.
Always under observation: The defense, which is prone to many mistakes. At the same time in view: the strong offense, which scores so often that the defense’s mistakes can almost always be ironed out.
Odds analysis
The AI prediction of the Bremen victory is a bit too tricky for me, but a very close game and thus a 2-0 on the Werder side could be good! The odds jump to 1.85 in the Betano app.
At the same time, I can well imagine that the first half will be really turbulent. After the nine goals scored by Bayern against Zagreb, I would therefore recommend the bet Over 1.5 goals in the first 45 minutes, which is offered at odds of 1.95.
I have also included an outcome bet in my selection. In this game, I would opt for 3:2, which also takes into account the Bavarian defensive weaknesses. This risk is rewarded with odds of 16.5.
Werder Bremen vs. Bayern odds: Better not to bet on a clean sheet?
The team usually concede away from home, which was the case in the two games in the current round. At least Munich managed to string together two wins away from home for the first time ever.
They have not managed to keep a clean sheet in an away game since the end of November 2023, when they won 1-0 against Cologne. How realistic is it for Bayern to start with three consecutive away wins?
This question must be allowed, after all, this feat was last achieved in the 2015/16 season under Pep Guardiola. The fact that Sacha Boey tore his meniscus a few days ago should not jeopardize this goal.
Losing impossible?
Even Manuel Neuer, who was substituted at half-time against Zagreb as a purely precautionary measure, will probably not be available for selection in Bremen on Saturday. All the Bayern stars will surely remember what happened in the last match against Werder.
Between September 2008 and January 2024, they had never lost to Bremen, with the exception of four draws, all games were won. But suddenly this 0-1 came along, and nobody really knew why.
Incidentally, Munich last lost at the Weser in October 2006. Interesting fact: VfB Stuttgart became German champions that season. Since Bremen have scored in five of their last six meetings, you shouldn’t write off the North Germans completely.
At the same time, SVW have only managed to score more than one goal three times in the aforementioned period since 2008. So if you are feeling brave, you can bet on the home team to score over 1.5, which will get you odds of 3.15!
Bremen have certainly taken note of what Bayern did to Dinamo Zagreb. They know the feeling of being without a chance on the Weser, having lost 4-0 at home in 2023/24.
This time, however, the green-whites will surely be competing with broad chests, after all, they have not lost in eight games across the season and thus hold the second longest streak behind RB Leipzig (14 games).
After the new season started with draws against Augsburg (2:2) and Dortmund (0:0), the trend of Mainz was stopped, taking a 2:1 with them. It is clear that they want to build on this straight away.
Nevertheless, it is a small miracle that they have managed to get five points at all. The team has only taken 30 shots, which, together with FC St. Pauli, is the lowest number of all clubs.
There is also a personnel setback, namely that Marco Friedl will be missing due to suspension. Four defeats and two draws? The last Werder games without him were anything but successful!
In 2023/24, he was not on board a total of nine times, a win rate of 22 percent and an average of 2.1 goals conceded illustrate how important he is for his team and how much he will be missed on Saturday.
My Werder Bremen Bayern Tip:
Bayern against Bremen? Yes, this game is a classic example of David versus Goliath. The fact that Werder sensationally won the last duel does not change that, because Munich were not themselves then.
You probably already knew what the FCB was capable of offensively before the 9-2 win in the Champions League against Dinamo Zagreb. But now there are some defensive problems that will continue into 2024/25.
This is exactly what the Hanseatic club, who have not lost in eight matches, want to exploit and get involved. So, all in all, I have decided to make the following tip:
If Over 2.5 goals both score!
