Bundesliga Matchday 10, Saturday, 09.11.2024 at 15:30
Werder Bremen will face Holstein Kiel this afternoon as part of the 10th Bundesliga matchday – and the “Storks” are under direct pressure!
In my Werder Bremen Kiel prediction, I look at the clash between two teams with clear objectives: While Bremen want to use the home game to send out a positive signal after the Gladbach debacle, Kiel need to score to take early account of the looming relegation battle.
Even after their first win of the season, the “Storks” are still fluttering at the bottom of the table rather than flying, but a three-pointer would be an important step towards gaining some breathing space at the bottom in the long term.
Excitement is guaranteed – and the question remains as to whether Kiel will hold their nerve and secure their first important away win.
Both clubs logically only know each other from the lower house. In the 2021/22 season, Werder Bremen faced Holstein Kiel in the Bundesliga 2, but then suffered two bitter defeats there (1-2 away, 2-3 at home).
Since the Bundesliga was founded around 44 years ago, Bremen have only won once against the “Storks” – and that was a long time ago: in 1980 with a clear 5:1 home victory in the then Northern Group of the 2nd division.
Kiel will probably be confident, especially as the Storks have just celebrated an important success.
The hosts are favored by the betting providers with Apple Pay, but you shouldn’t write off the promoted team just yet.
My Werder Bremen Kiel betting tip assumes a wild back and forth, in which the promoted team should bag between one and three points in the end!
The oddsmakers’ forecast?
The current Werder Bremen Kiel odds show that Werder are the favorites.
A win for the home team is priced at an average of 1.65, which underlines the bookmakers’ expectation that Bremen should really set the tone in front of their own fans.
Kiel, on the other hand, are the underdogs, with proud odds of around 4.90 – for all those hoping for a surprise with their Werder Bremen Kiel betting tip, this is a must in my eyes.
KI prediction Werder Bremen vs Kiel: This is what ChatGPT
Here is the Werder Bremen Kiel AI prediction, which ChatGPT submitted to me on request and which I subsequently subjected to an in-depth test for you, which was at least as critical as the Betano test recently carried out by my betting friends.
The high-risk bet here is that Bremen will win after falling behind, and this bet does indeed have its appeal.
The game could well be a back and forth affair, so a comeback win for Werder is absolutely within the realms of possibility. Even though I personally tend to favor the “Storks” …
The middle risk tip, according to which Kiel will score the first goal, is based on the already realistic assumption of a varied game.
Kiel could well gain the upper hand early on before Bremen get into the game. In this respect, the scenario is by no means far-fetched. I will present you with some interesting data to support this assumption.
After all, the safe bet is that both teams will score. This bet also fits well, as the promoted team will probably be looking for an open exchange of blows. And the odds are also quite okay at around 1.52…
Analysis: Werder Bremen vs Kiel
Werder Bremen have had a very mixed Bundesliga season so far, with an even record of three wins, three draws and three defeats.
The most recent 1:4 against Borussia Mönchengladbach was one of the weakest performances of the season and is causing concern among fans.
Now they face another clash on Saturday against a team that is behind Bremen in the table, which could be an opportunity to stabilize their form and forget the defeat from the last game.
The pressure is also increasing for Werder Bremen, however, as Holstein Kiel will arrive next Saturday in a much better mood. The “Storks” believe in staying in the league!
After eight games without a win (two draws, six defeats), Kiel were finally able to celebrate their first win of the season against Heidenheim last weekend with a 1-0 victory.
Despite the first win, Kiel remain deep in the bottom half of the table and are still fighting to stay in the league. The team is still in serious danger of being relegated – which poses a major challenge for Holstein, but at least they believe in themselves again!
Odds Analysis
In the duel between Werder Bremen and Kiel, the draw at odds of 4.00 could be a really attractive option for all game theorists and profit-oriented betting fans.
The probability that the teams will share the points is around 50%, which makes these odds simply sensational.
If you are looking for a little less risk, you can bet on “Over 2.5 goals in half-time one” at odds of around 2.05 with the bookmaker.
The odds for this could be a little higher, but the bet still has potential – after all, three goals were scored before the break in the last meeting.
Overall, both tips are exciting and offer good value for a balanced and offensive game!
Werder Bremen vs Kiel odds: SVW don’t like newcomers!
There are other good reasons why the Storks should believe in their chances of taking points away from the Weserstadion! Bremen have struggled against promoted teams in the Bundesliga recently.
Last season, SVW failed to win a single game against the two newcomers, Heidenheim and Darmstadt (one draw, three defeats).
Overall, Werder are winless in their last five games against newly promoted teams (one draw, four defeats) – their longest drought against newcomers since 2015/16. So there could well be a surprise in store!
Kiel could actually score the 1:0!
The visitors could benefit from a particular weakness of Werder Bremen. Werder Bremen have picked up just two of their twelve points at home this season – the worst percentage home points ratio in the Bundesliga.
This is the first time since 2017/18 that the Weser club have played their first four home games without a win. This is a real weakness for Werder, which they urgently need to remedy if they are to remain competitive in the league.
This is also the reason why betting on Kiel to take the lead is very promising from a statistical point of view. After all, Werder have not scored 1-0 in any home game this season – only St. Pauli have done the same in the league.
Kiel, on the other hand, have only led for seven minutes away from home themselves, but Werder’s passive style of play at home could provide Kiel with a good opportunity to change that and score the first goal early on.
By the way, the absence of Mitchell Weiser is a significant loss for Werder Bremen. Weiser has not only been one of the team’s best assist men this season, but has also been an important part of the team since their return to the Bundesliga in 2022.
With his 5,961 minutes in Germany’s top flight, he is one of the five players with the most appearances for Werder in that time.
His absence due to suspension after seeing two yellow cards in Mönchengladbach will weaken Werder’s attacking and build-up play in particular.
My Werder Bremen Kiel tip:
Kiel have the momentum on their side and will start the game more courageously in my opinion. At least the generous Werder Bremen Kiel odds justify sticking to this scenario.
The absence of Mitchell Weiser could also deprive Werder of any chance of being able to make a sufficient impact up front to quickly make up for any deficit …
So in my eyes, the odds are good that the Storks will win in impressive back-to-back fashion on Saturday …
My tip: Double chance X2
