Bundesliga Matchday 3, Saturday, 14.09.2024 at 15:30
Several bets are suitable for the Wolfsburg Frankfurt betting tip. They all have one thing in common: they all have a fixed reference to the number of goals.
The Wolves surprised everyone on the first matchday with their challenging style against the German record champions (2:3) and secured their first three points of the season with a 2:0 win against Kiel on the following matchday.
Although Frankfurt lost to BVB (0:2) on the first matchday, they did not lose their own joy of attacking play as a result. Quite the opposite – there were some flashbacks to the familiar Buffalo herd in the match against Hoffenheim (3:1)
The last time SGE won a Bundesliga clash against VfL Wolfsburg was three years ago. This negative streak could be ended in my Wolfsburg Frankfurt betting tip.
After a lot of back and forth, I have made the following decision: “Frankfurt Over 1.5 goals” with odds of 2.15 at Oddset.
The prediction of the bookmakers?
The best sports betting apps show almost no difference in the odds. Wolfsburg start the third matchday with maximum odds of 2.70 to win.
The difference to the win odds for Hesse is only marginal, which do not exceed 2.60 even with the betting providers without tax.
Ralph Hasenhüttl has not yet seen a draw in his tenure as VfL coach, which is why I would advise against a draw and odds of up to 3.60 despite balanced win odds
KI prediction Wolfsburg vs Frankfurt: This is what ChatGPT
predicts
The oracle of Chat GPT has also spit out some options for a Wolfsburg Frankfurt tip. There is little value behind door A. “Both teams to score” only yields odds of around 1.60 with the bookmakers.
The second option, which I am convinced will happen, is more promising. “Over 2.5 goals in the match” offers me the right range with odds of around 1.74.
The following bet requires the most courage: Wolfsburg lead at half-time and win the game at odds of around 4.00. A bold bet, as the Lower Saxony side have lost five of their last seven Bundesliga home games.
However, it should be noted that the home side have not lost to SGE in three years and have not left the pitch without scoring in 23 Bundesliga matches
Analysis: Wolfsburg vs Frankfurt
Ralph Hasenhüttl will probably have to do without his top scorer on matchday three. Lovro Majer (2 goals) has damaged his ankle and will probably watch from the stands.
However, his absence could prove to be a stroke of luck, at least if Jonas Wind makes his first appearance in the starting eleven and scores a brace against SGE, as he did last year.
The tell-tale sign of VfL’s home games of late has been the number of goals conceded. They have lost five of their last seven Bundesliga home games and have conceded three goals in each of those defeats.
For my Wolfsburg Frankfurt betting tip, two goals from SGE would be enough for me and I trust the Hessians to do that, especially after their performance against Hoffenheim (3:1).
Hugo Ekitike was in absolute top form there. The slender attacker measures 1.90 m, but is technically adept and quick as an arrow.
So far, only two players have shown a higher speed than the 22-year-old (35.53 km/h).
His pace and vision are extremely important tools for Dino Toppmöller’s preferred game. No other Bundesliga team has scored more goals on the counter-attack than the Eagles (2).
Quota analysis
The distribution of the winning odds is not surprising and can be backed up with several statistics. For example, the shots taken by Wolfsburg (0.14 xG per shot) and Frankfurt (0.15 xG per shot) have mostly been dangerous so far.
Parallel to my actual Wolfsburg Frankfurt tip, I therefore recommend odds of around 2.15 for “Wolfsburg over 1.5 goals”, which can be wonderfully combined with a NEObet free bet
If both teams score “Over 1.5 goals”, the result would probably be similar to the last match. On matchday 23 of the previous season, Frankfurt and Wolfsburg shared the points (2:2).
In my opinion, “over 3.5 goals in the match” is not as unlikely as odds of around 2.65 would have us betting enthusiasts believe.
Wolfsburg vs Frankfurt odds: In memory of the buffalo herd
Once upon a time, a herd of buffalo in the Hessen jersey drove their way through the opposition’s penalty area. But none of Luka Jovic, Ante Rebic and Sebastien Haller wear the eagle on their chest anymore.
Instead, a new species has taken up residence in the SGE’s forward line – dolphins. Hugo Ekitike, Omar Marmoush and Mario Götze may not be as robust as the former trio, but together they are clever and have plenty of finesse.
After two matchdays, the visitors have 3.75 expected goals. With 0.15 expected goals, SGE usually score from promising positions.
The three attackers in Dino Toppmöller’s 3-4-3 system are decisive for this. Ekitike, Marmoush (1 goal and 1 assist each) and Götze (1 assist) in particular are pillars of the Eagles’ creative play.
The Volkswagen Arena is under threat
On the first matchday, Wolfsburg put up great resistance against the German record champions (2:3) and only lost narrowly. Despite the impressive performance, VfL coach Ralph Hasenhüttl was disappointed with the atmosphere in his own stadium.
To get the crowd behind the team again, one thing is needed above all: results. These have failed to materialize at home recently and the Wolves have lost five of their last seven Bundesliga home games.
Each defeat included three goals conceded and the Lower Saxons also face the same threat against SGE if the defense does not wake up in time.
Sure, Wolfsburg won 2-0 against Kiel on the second matchday, but the expected goals after just two Bundesliga games are 3.52 xGA – too high!
Only three teams (Gladbach, Leipzig and Mainz) have allowed their rivals more shots on goal than Wolfsburg (14).
Not only the number of shots allowed on goal, but also the positions from which the shots were taken were critical. 75 percent of the opponents’ shots were taken inside the sixteen – only Union Berlin (77.27 percent) and Bochum (78.57 percent) had a higher rate.
So far, VfL have been able to rely on the left foot of captain Maximilian Arnold. Wolfsburg have already scored three goals from a resting ball – a league best!
It is doubtful, however, whether Arnold’s sensitive flick will be used often in his 350th Bundesliga game.
Frankfurt committed the fewest fouls of all Bundesliga teams (13) and collected just one yellow card
I’m much more certain that Hugo Ekitike will be involved in another goal. The ex-PSG player has involved his talented feet in at least one goal in six of the last seven games (5 goals, 2 assists).
These figures confirm that Ekitike has fully acclimatized to the German top flight. During his first nine appearances, he provided just one assist
My Wolfsburg Frankfurt tip:
I’m extremely excited about this pairing on matchday three. Both teams can be dangerous in attack and thus force a high-scoring game.
I see a little more reliability in SGE, who could have found a new trio in attack and will attack Wolves’ penalty area with fast, determined soccer.
After Frankfurt scored three goals on the last matchday, two goals against Wolfsburg would be enough for a successful Wolfsburg Frankfurt betting tip.
My Wolfsburg Frankfurt prediction: Frankfurt will score at least two goals
