Wolfsburg – Paderborn Tip Bundesliga relegation, first leg on Thursday, 21.05.2026 at 20:30 CET
Well, that was exciting! VfL Wolfsburg was able to save itself to third last place on the last Bundesliga matchday, while SC Paderborn dramatically made it to third place in the lower house.
Accordingly, both teams will now meet in the Bundesliga relegation play-off to see who will be involved in the 2026/27 Bundesliga season.
Since the first leg in Wolfsburg will take place, the Wolves will of course go into the game as favourites, even if I don’t want to write off SCP completely.
And a look at the recent history of the relegation also speaks for a rather high-scoring confrontation. At least three goals have been scored in each of the last six relegation games.
Looking at the team statistics, it is also noticeable that Paderborn could not do too much on the home stretch of the season with a controlled offensive. The 5-1 defeat against Elversberg and the 2-2 draw against KSC are examples of SCP’s approach to the game.
So if you basically assume that Wolfsburg will dominate the relegation first leg – at least one goal by SC Paderborn should be planned. And that’s exactly why I’m so firmly convinced of my tip selection.
Wolfsburg – Paderborn Prediction & Betting Tips
Without alternatives, you won’t get far in the modern world. That’s why I would like to recommend the next classic to you with “Both Teams Score”. The odds are about 1.70 and fit the starting position.
In my opinion, the bet “Wolfsburg win & both teams score” is also interesting (odds at approx. 3.25). A 3-1 or 3-2 win for the Wolves seems much more realistic than an unadorned 1-0. Don’t forget: Paderborn has scored in each of the last twelve games.
What you need to consider when betting on Wolfsburg vs. Paderborn
- Wolfsburg was last in the relegation play-offs in 2017/18 – won both games against Holstein Kiel (3-1, 1-0).
- Paderborn is playing in the Bundesliga relegation for the first time.
- The last duel to date took place in the 2019/20 season – Wolfsburg won 4-2 in Paderborn.
- In the two previous home games against Paderborn, Wolfsburg had to settle for a 1-1 draw in each case.
- In four of the five duels, “Both Teams Score” was successful in each case.
Wolfsburg – Paderborn: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
Of course, our AI model doesn’t need to be asked twice and serves you additional tip alternatives in its Wolfsburg Paderborn AI prediction for the Bundesliga relegation.
And right at the beginning, the digital brain shows me the long nose and recommends the bet “Over 3.5 goals”. The odds of about 2.75 are of course excellent and are supported by the Paderborn statistics. In three of the last four SCP games, the bet would have gone through.
With the second tip, you have to look very closely. Sure, Wolfsburg are favourites. However, with “Wolfsburg win with handicap -1” at odds around 2.55, the AI is still leaning out of the window. Personally, I think a Wolfsburg victory with a one-goal gap is more likely.
“Paderborn over 1.5 goals” is of course very interesting. In three of the last four games, the second division team has scored at least twice – most recently in the 2-0 win in Darmstadt. So you can let the strong odds of about 3.45 go through your head.
The best odds for Wolfsburg vs. Paderborn
There can basically be no two opinions: Wolfsburg has the much better chances of surviving the relegation. The win odds for the first leg of about 1.60 are therefore completely okay and offer sufficient value to this extent.
The fact is that the relegation history clearly speaks against the second division team and thus against SC Paderborn. Since 2013, only once has a Bundesliga team lost out in the play-offs. In 2019, Union Berlin beat VfB Stuttgart (2-2, 0-0) due to the away goals rule that still existed at the time.
It is therefore understandable that the Paderborn team is fobbed off with a win rate of about 5.00, especially since the direct comparison speaks against the SCP.
In fact, Paderborn is still waiting for its first competitive win against VfL Wolfsburg. In five duels, the SCP left the pitch as losers three times. Two games ended in a draw.
Wolfsburg vs Paderborn Match Analysis:
Practically everyone expects Wolfsburg to dominate the game against Paderborn – most likely Wolfsburg themselves. The fact is, however, that the Wolves have not covered themselves with glory in the course of the Bundesliga season so far. With 69 goals conceded, they were even the second-worst defensive team behind Heidenheim (72).
And this is exactly where the opportunity for SC Paderborn could arise. Wolfsburg, who have moved up the ranks, are unlikely to have the stability to defend every counterattack of the second division club without any problems.
So I can’t imagine that Wolfsburg will keep a clean sheet in the relegation first leg, especially since SCP has to risk something anyway to get promoted to the Bundesliga in the end.
And so an extremely lively game is likely, in which Paderborn can repeatedly set dangerous pinpricks and shake Wolfsburg’s defensive statics.
Wolfsburg Form Check
It wouldn’t have taken much for Wolfsburg to be relegated to the 2nd Bundesliga without any detours. Bad news on top: After the weak first half of the season (only 18 points), VfL dropped noticeably in the second half of the season and only picked up eleven more points.
Anyone who only wins two in 17 games in the second half of the season can be happy in the end to be allowed to compete in the relegation play-offs at all.
Of course, the home record is also worrying with regard to the game against Paderborn. Of 17 Bundesliga home games, VfL has only won two. This made Wolfsburg the worst home team of the 2025/26 Bundesliga season.
An application for a win against Paderborn therefore looks different, even if the recent record at least suggests a ray of hope. Because: Wolfsburg have only suffered one defeat in the last five games.
Paderborn Form Check
But even at SC Paderborn, not all that glitters is gold. Because although the Paderborn team has fought for the chance to return to the Bundesliga, they have not recently acted like a designated promoted team.
Paderborn has won only one of the last five games. The 5-1 defeat against Elversberg also showed that you can also get under the wheels against a strong team. But here, too, SCP scored a goal.
Overall, the second half of the season is not outstanding. Of the 17 games, only eight were won. The goal difference of 31:27 is also not convincing for a promotion candidate.
So I don’t expect Paderborn to play big in Wolfsburg. Rather, a wild exchange of blows is likely, in which SCP leaves the pitch as a loser in the end – but not without scoring at least one goal.
