Wolfsburg – Kiel betting betting tip, AI prediction & odds 24/01/2025

Bundesliga 19th matchday, Friday, 24/01/2025 at 20:30

Nuri Sahin has just been fired by BVB, and Marcel Rapp should also think carefully about how he handles the situation at the “Störche” in order to avoid suffering the same fate. After all, failure is something that few board members can handle calmly.

My tip for the game between Wolfsburg and Kiel on matchday 19, which kicks off tonight, addresses the question of whether the Bundesliga’s weakest defense will be able to hold out against their opponents this time.

It will be exciting to see how Kiel present themselves and whether they finally appear more stable defensively. However, I don’t expect them to be able to successfully stand up to the offensive urge of Maximilian Arnold and Co. for long.

At first glance, things don’t look good for Kiel on Friday. After all, their opponent is a true ace at showing newcomers the ropes.

After all, VfL Wolfsburg has scored repeatedly in its last 15 Bundesliga home games against promoted teams, which is currently the second-longest streak of this kind in the German top flight after that of RB Leipzig (16).

In short: according to my Wolfsburg Kiel tip, the “Wolves” will remain on course for the European Cup even after this matchday.

Especially since their courageous, albeit unsuccessful, performance against Bayern in the previous week convinced me that we are dealing here with a future Europa League participant.

The betting providers’ prediction?

With 1.40 for the home win, the matter is almost in the bag. Kiel will have to perform a minor miracle to take anything away from this game – with odds of 7.00 for the away win, it is clear that the bookmakers have little faith in their success.

The draw odds of 5.00 are in between, but even that would be a real surprise.

The Wolfsburg Kiel betting odds of almost all sports betting providers thus all point in the same direction.

KI prediction Wolfsburg vs Kiel: That’s what ChatGPT tips

There are various computer-generated betting suggestions for this encounter that are worth taking a look at. In any case, I checked the Wolfsburg Kiel AI prediction presented to me by ChatGPT and evaluated it for you at the same time.

The tip “Half-time/final score X1” carries a high risk, but this does not seem to be the best suggestion. Because “1/1” would be the choice that I personally would clearly prefer.

Especially considering that Kiel has already been behind at half-time in 14 of the 18 Bundesliga games so far.

The AI, on the other hand, considers the bet “Wolfsburg to win and both teams to score” to be of medium risk. This suggestion seems sensible, as it takes sufficient account of both Wolfsburg and Kiel’s offensive potential.

It seems likely that the hosts will win the game, but Kiel will at least score a goal to save face.

Finally, betting on “over 2.5 goals in the game” carries a low risk. I couldn’t agree more.

Wolfsburg has had a strong offense this season, with only three teams scoring more Bundesliga goals than they have.

So it seems realistic that VfL could even crack this mark all by themselves in the best case.

Analysis: Wolfsburg vs Kiel

Wolfsburg has displayed an “all-or-nothing” mentality in recent months, most recently losing 2-3 to Bayern Munich.

Of their last ten games, none ended in a draw (7 wins, 3 losses). They now want to put pressure on FSV Mainz again in the table against Kiel, who are threatened with relegation.

Incidentally, the clash will be the first meeting of the two teams in the Bundesliga at the Volkswagen Arena. Wolfsburg won the first leg against the promoted team in August 2-0, which gives them a slight psychological advantage.

Another point of interest for potential bettors: the Wolves have scored in each of their last 19 home matches, but have only won five of those games (5 draws, 9 defeats).

Holstein Kiel suffered a setback in their relegation battle when they lost 1-3 to Hoffenheim. With 46 goals conceded in the league, their defensive problems are obvious, which also weighs on their offense.

Despite this, they have scored in each of their away games but have not won any of them, including five consecutive defeats on foreign soil.

Coach Marcel Rapp will be keen to ensure that his team remains stable from the start, as they have already conceded 21 goals in the first 30 minutes this season.

Odds analysis

The 19.0 odds for a 4-1 win for VfL are definitely a real cracker! The risk is high, but if the game goes in that direction, the payout would be decent.

If Wolfsburg is in top form and actually rolls over Kiel, this tip could be a real highlight.

In contrast, the very safe bet in my opinion on “VfL scores the first goal” at odds of 1.30, which is only suitable for a betting slip with several entries, involves significantly less risk.

Wolfsburg vs. Kiel: Like chalk and cheese!

Quite honestly, with these numbers, it’s hard not to think that VfL will easily score over 3.5 goals here.

With 40 goals in this Bundesliga season, Wolfsburg has the best record in the club’s history after 18 games and also the highest shot conversion rate in the league (24%).

And now they face Holstein Kiel, who have conceded the most goals this season, 46 – a tally last bettered by Stuttgarter Kickers in 1988/89. What a contrast!

Even if the “Störche” lost the first-leg clash against VfL with a face-saving 0-2, a completely different wind could blow in the Volkswagen Arena on Friday.

Kiel often performs dismally away from home!

There is some evidence to suggest that a three-pointer for Holstein Kiel in this game is rather unlikely. The storks are still waiting for their first away win in the Bundesliga and have lost their last five away games. I like to mention that again!

In addition, Kiel is the only team of all Bundesliga newcomers since the turn of the millennium that has not won in their first nine away games! That hardly leaves any doubt about a Wolfsburg win, does it?

I’m not just talking about a possible rout for the “Wolves” because a top offense is facing the weakest defense in the Bundesliga in the Volkswagen Arena on Friday.

Rather, it is the way the northerners lay siege to their opponents that leads me to assume a one-sided game here. Need an example? Take the set pieces alone!

It is truly remarkable how well VfL is set up for dead balls, while Holstein Kiel is particularly weak in this area.

It’s worth noting that Wolfsburg, along with Bayern Munich, have the best record in this Bundesliga season with 15 goals from set-pieces.

Kiel, on the other hand, has already conceded 13 goals from set-pieces – the highest number in the league.

Both of Wolfsburg’s goals in the first game were scored from set-pieces, one directly and one indirectly from a free-kick. This cannot be a coincidence!

These numbers increase the likelihood of a significant victory for Wolfsburg, especially since the promoted team continues to show deficits in this area even after the winter break.

My Wolfsburg Kiel Tip:

Kiel should be extremely close to Lower Saxony. The storks are unsettled, and their vulnerability in standards makes them the perfect victim for VfL.

Wolfsburg could even be as dominant as they were against Gladbach just a few weeks ago.

In fact, I see no reason why they could not beat the promoted team by a similar margin on Friday.

My prediction: Wolfsburg scores over 3.5 goals.

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