Hamburg Open, round of 16, Thursday, 18.07.2024, 18:30
6-2, 6-2 and only 78 minutes on court, a parade performance from Alexander Zverev to kick off his home tournament in the Hanseatic city. He gave Jesper de Jong no chance in the first round. That whets the appetite for more matches from the defending champion.
On Thursday, he continues directly against Hugo Gaston, another opponent the German has never met before. In my Zverev Gaston betting tip, I am clearly convinced of another quick win for the world number four, so I’m once again going for the 2:0 without tiebreak for Zverev at Bet365
As in Halle, Mischa, Zverev’s younger brother, was allowed to ask the questions after the win in the on-court interview. “I still felt some pain in the warm-up phase, but I felt comfortable as soon as I stepped onto the court,” said Zverev, thanking the loud support in the stands of the Am Rothenbaum stadium.
Background: At Wimbledon, Zverev slipped on the green court and subsequently complained of knee pain. Bone edema and a pulled muscle then slowed him down against Taylor Fritz, and he practically played the Wimbledon round of 16 “on one leg”.
The start in Hamburg was open until Wednesday. The tournament organizers granted the top-seeded star of the tournament a one-day reprieve before his first round match. There was hardly any sign of the knee problems against de Jong, only the bandage suggested it
Zverev avoided shorter rallies right from the start, attacked early and gave the Dutchman no chance. He was also able to rely on his serve again.
69 percent of his first serves flew into the targeted court, a top score in the tennis world, but almost not enough for Zverev’s level.
At Wimbledon, the man with the highest serve percentage on the tour has offered 75 percent in recent matches. Like many other competitors, De Jong has been unable to find a way against Zverev in recent months and has also been unable to create a single break chance.
Zverev is again clearly ahead according to the odds before the match against Gaston, getting a 1.07 in the best sports betting apps, Gaston is at 7.00. The German’s smooth 2:0 success brings about a 1.35 on the betting slip.
For me, it only becomes palatable again if I exclude the tiebreak. The Bet365 betting configurator enables the fusion of both odds and conjures up a 1.58 from both bets. Strong odds, there are several tennis worlds between Zverev and Gaston.
No direct duel has yet been necessary to realize this. This is the first time they have played each other in Hamburg. The reigning Olympic champion, who will be aiming for precious metal again from July 27 in Paris, makes a big difference on serve.
While Zverev very rarely lets his opponents in and, in addition to service winners, also masters several winning one-two combinations as he matures, Gaston often stumbles. At 1.73 meters, he does not have the best service angle.
In his first round match against Facundo Diaz Acosta, he conceded five breaks and 15 break chances. In Wimbledon, he lost six service games, half as many as Zverev has lost in his last nine matches
At the same time, Zverev is particularly dangerous on clay with high bouncing balls on the return. In Paris, he took over 100 service games from his opponents. Despite his 1.98 meters, he is agile and fast on the court and is also one of the world’s best defensive players.
Gaston was unable to make much of an impact in 2024. He reached the quarter-finals of a 250 in Lyon and took the title at the Challenger in the same city. There were no top results at major tournaments, so everything points to another resounding victory for Zverev.
His knee doesn’t seem to be stopping him. “I’m currently very happy with how I moved on the court and how I was able to play the match,” he said about his victory in round one.
If you don’t want to bother with the betting configurator, you could take a look at Intertops, where you can top up your balance with Paypal and bet on over/under games in tennis. There are 1.60 odds for under 20.5 games, 1.87 odds for under 19.5 games and 2.32 odds for the very quick Zverev success in the form of under 18.5 games.
My Zverev Gaston tip
Zverev is clearly the better player in all areas, maybe even all of them! The biggest difference becomes apparent when it comes to scoring points on serve.
While Gaston barely won every second point in round one, Zverev only gave away a quarter of his points by his own admission. And now the 23-year-old Frenchman is facing an even stronger return player.
Although the Hamburg-born player is still somewhat handicapped by his knee, he moves “well” on the court and can make the difference with his strong serves and baseline shots.
As against de Jong, I expect Zverev to fly through in Hamburg, where he already won the title in 2023 and never dropped a set and avoided tiebreaks.
My Zverev Gaston tip: Zverev wins 2:0 & no tiebreak
