Champions League, Wednesday, 06.11.2024 at 21:00
The pressure is there, the pressure Bayern never wanted! Munich have lost twice in a row and direct qualification for the knockout round is virtually impossible. Time to put the negativity behind them and head into matchday four with motivation.
In my Bayern Benfica Lisbon betting tip, I naturally also have an eye on the history, because the Eagles, or rather teams from Portugal in general, are among FCB’s absolute favorite opponents. Accordingly, I think the “Tip 1” makes sense, garnished with an “Over 2.5 goals”
Munich’s offense is known throughout Europe, and they especially like to score against Benfica. On the other hand, the Portuguese also have a lot of quality, having scored four goals against Atletico Madrid alone.
The Bayern Benfica Lisbon odds are obviously also based somewhat on the direct comparison. The hosts are clearly ahead with average odds of 1.32 to 7.70, even though the visitors already have three more points to their name.
As the German record champions are under a lot of pressure, we should be in for a very interesting duel. And who knows, maybe seven goals will be scored, just like the last time they met at the Allianz Arena!
The bookmaker’s forecast
The same principle as in the Bundesliga: there is little point in betting on a home win for FC Bayern. A value between 1.30 and 1.35 is possible, but the odds won’t climb any higher.
At the same time, Benfica will know: We are traveling to a club we have never won against. It is therefore not surprising that the odds for a win are at an average of 7.70.
The visitors would definitely be much happier with a draw than Bayern. However, since the Eagles have never scored in Munich, it’s no wonder that the odds settle at 5.70.
KI prediction Bayern vs Benfica Lisbon: ChatGPT
Of course, it was again advisable to get ChatGPT’s opinion in this case. I asked the AI about this Champions League match and received three betting suggestions that imply a wide variety of risks.
The bet in the high risk area has it all: Benfica will win by one goal! Since the Eagles have lost everything in Munich so far and have never been victorious against a German opponent in the CL, I would rather refrain from doing so.
The medium risk is perhaps more for you. It says that at least two goals will be scored before the break. Since Munich want to get off to a flying start offensively, I definitely agree with this suggestion.
At the same time, there is also a bet that more than 2.5 goals will be scored. Of course, this tip gets my okay, as it’s already included in my betting recommendation!
Analysis: Bayern vs Benfica Lisbon
Two defeats in a row? That’s not Bayern-like! The German record champions kicked off their Champions League campaign with a 9-2 win over Dinamo Zagreb, leaving the competition in awe.
What followed was a 0:1 against Aston Villa and the certainty that attacking soccer also depends on how you deal with your chances and how many mistakes the defense makes.
A little later, Munich hosted FC Barcelona. The performance? Decent. The result? Disastrous! They lost 4-1, even though their opponents produced exactly four real shots on goal.
When chances are missed, Vincent Kompany’s style of play, which involves a lot of risk, leads to a number of mistakes. There have not been three consecutive defeats in the Champions League since October 2002, which should be encouraging.
Odds Analysis
ChatGPT has already referred to the bet “Over 1.5 goals at half-time”. Here it could be worthwhile for you to increase the risk and say: Bayern will score twice in the first 45 minutes! At Betano, this gives us odds of 2.65.
Of course, this also implies that Munich will show a very strong side in the first half and finish with a lead. This bet would give you odds of 1.70.
Maybe place a result bet right away? Admittedly, there are several possible outcomes here. After going back and forth, I opt for 4:1 for the favorite. The odds for this are 15.0.
Bayern vs. Benfica Lisbon: A spectacle?
Jamal Musiala, for example, was not even born during the 3 CL defeats in a row! Bayern hadn’t lost in the group stage 41 times in a row, so now they’ve lost twice – albeit in a completely different format.
In the 1st Bundesliga, after the draws against Leverkusen (1:1) and Frankfurt (3:3), things are at least going really well again, first winning 4:0 against Stuttgart, then 5:0 against Bochum and 3:0 against Union Berlin.
Wins to nil are not a matter of course. The fact that six of the seven victories were by a margin of at least two goals reads very positively, of course.
Favourite opponent Benfica!
Munich have not been eliminated in a CL group stage since the 2002/03 season. We remember: that was the last time they lost three games in a row.
Of course, as in every match, a lot will depend on Harry Kane this Wednesday. 17 goals in 14 competitive games, that’s as good as it gets! At Winamax, a goal bet still pays off, with odds of 1.70 on offer.
If you bet on a brace (or even more goals at the same time), the odds even jump up to 4.30.
The record against Benfica Lisbon is of course excellent, with nine wins and three draws, and the results from the group stage (2018 to 2021) speak volumes.
5:2 and 5:1 at home, 4:0 and 2:0 away – from Germany’s point of view, it can go on like this. Benfica will travel knowing that they have always been beaten at the Isar, only once conceding fewer than four goals.
The Eagles, however, are at least not under pressure, as they have successfully completed two of their three CL appearances so far. First was a 2:1 win against Red Star, followed by the 4:0 gala against Atletico Madrid.
It was all the more annoying that the streak did not last and they lost 3:1 to Feyenoord Rotterdam a few weeks ago. It didn’t help that Kerem Aktürkoglu, new signing from Galatasaray, scored his third goal of the tournament.
With eight goals in all competitions, he is the top scorer, so this signing has paid off. All three CL games have featured more than 2.5 goals, so there is no chance of boredom here.
As Benfica have already failed to win two games in the Primeira Liga, there is a small gap between them and the impeccable leaders Sporting. These two matches took place away from home – not good conditions for a trip to Munich.
My Bayern Benfica Lisbon tip:
FC Bayern must set an international example! After the defeats against Aston Villa and Barcelona, the pressure is on, the highly praised offense must finally make use of their many chances and score goals, goals and more goals.
Benfica Lisbon is one of their absolute favorite opponents. Although the Eagles scored four goals against Atletico, they also lost heavily to Feyenoord. Which means for me: they don’t perform consistently at all.
From both a historical and a current perspective, I believe that Munich will not allow themselves to be outplayed in their stadium. What’s more, the results of both teams suggest that it won’t be boring at the Isar. My prediction:
Bayern win by over 2.5 goals!
