Bundesliga match day 11, Saturday, 11/23/2024 at 3:30 pm
The big question remains: Is Nuri Sahin the right man to lead Borussia Dortmund into a glorious future? Doubts are appropriate, because the latest setbacks speak a different language.
Especially now, when expectations are so high for the phase immediately after the last international break of the year, a defeat against Sport-Club Freiburg on the 11th Bundesliga match day would be a devastating signal.
Another disappointment could not only upset the fans, but also endanger Sahin’s already shaky position.
In my Dortmund Freiburg betting tip, I analyze for you whether Borussia will manage to turn things around against the sports club or whether the crisis will continue to worsen.
Should Freiburg be awarded a penalty on Saturday, I don’t automatically expect them to score. After all, SC recently missed its fifth consecutive Bundesliga penalty kick against Union Berlin – a negative club record that they last achieved in 1999.
Since 2000, only one team has managed to miss more Bundesliga penalties in a row: Dortmund between 2010 and 2011 (6).
Despite this weakness, the Black Forest team’s defense is impressive. In my Dortmund Freiburg prediction, I therefore predict that SC will concede at most one goal.
Their solid defensive performance should make life very difficult for the Borussians and at the same time guarantee you a close game.
The betting providers’ prediction?
The Dortmund Freiburg betting odds speak for themselves: the bookmakers see BVB as favorites. With a 1.65, Dortmund is firmly set, while a Freiburg victory is at 5.00.
On the other hand, the odds for a draw are 4.20 on average in the markets, which also shows how big the gap between the teams is estimated to be.
Freiburg has rarely managed to annoy the black and yellows in the past, but on Saturday, with a bit of luck, I think it could be the first time since 2017 that the sports club has managed to keep a clean sheet against BVB.
KI prediction Dortmund vs Freiburg: That’s what ChatGPT tips
The Dortmund Freiburg AI prediction from ChatGPT comes with some interesting suggestions. Here is my assessment of the top three ideas from artificial intelligence.
I quite like the risky option, “Draw & Both Teams to Score”, at odds in the mid-single digits.
However, I personally would rather go for a 1-1 result directly, as this would allow me to realize an even higher odds. Nevertheless, it is an exciting scenario for those who are willing to take on this risky betting maneuver.
The medium-risk tip, “BVB win with Asian Handicap -1”, doesn’t convince me.
If Mainz was able to beat BVB, I see no reason why Freiburg should not also be a serious opponent. This recommendation seems to me to have been chosen far too optimistically at this rate.
The supposedly safe choice, “Over 2.5 goals”, doesn’t suit me either. I’m reckoning with a defensive game in which scoring chances have to be worked hard.
Overall, these two suggestions are less than exciting in the context of the Dortmund Freiburg AI prediction, as my own preferences go in a slightly different direction.
Analysis: Dortmund vs Freiburg
Borussia Dortmund have had a rollercoaster of a season in the Bundesliga: while they shine at home, miserable away performances have been getting them down.
With a record of 5 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses, they still go into this game with some confidence, as they are among the two teams in Europe’s top leagues (alongside Brentford) who are unbeaten at home but still winless away from home.
However, their seven home wins in a row, including victories against top competitors such as Leipzig (2-1) and Frankfurt (2-0), underline their strength in the Signal Iduna Park. These are all facts that, when viewed soberly, could actually point to a victory for Borussia.
Freiburg, on the other hand, have recently presented themselves as a defensively strong unit. The goalless draw against Union Berlin before the international break once again proved their quality, prompting coach Julian Schuster to sing the team’s praises.
Building on their promising top-five finish, the Black Forest team are hoping to take something home against Dortmund as well.
So far, however, they have had a hard time against the league’s big guns: they conceded two of their three defeats this season away at Bayern (0-2) and Leipzig (1-3). Nevertheless, I currently rate BVB as not quite as strong as the record champions or RBL.
Odds Analysis
I have three scenarios for you to enter into the Intertops app, where the corresponding probability of occurrence is higher than the odds assigned by the bookmakers in each case.
We will start with the possible final score. The 1-1 result bet at odds of 8.25 is a spectacularly good offer that could be worthwhile, as I can well imagine this result happening.
A general draw bet at 4.20 could also be an interesting option for you, as the risk is well cushioned here and the odds still remain appealing.
Vincenzo Grifo as the first scorer at 13.5 would be a much riskier tip, but not impossible given his current form.
The Italian is in top form and could well score the first goal from a free-kick in an even game. A bet that definitely has potential!
Dortmund vs Freiburg odds: No chance for Sport-Club?
The main reason why I don’t trust the Sport-Club to win is the bare numbers. Even though my confidence in Nuri Sahin’s coaching abilities is limited, the statistics clearly speak against Freiburg.
Since 16 Bundesliga away games in Dortmund, the Breisgauer are waiting for a win (1 draw, 15 defeats) – only in Munich is the dry spell even longer. Their only success at BVB was over two decades ago, a 2-0 in October 2001 under Volker Finke.
On top of that, Dortmund are unbeaten in their last 12 home games and have even won the last 10. Sahin is also the first BVB coach to win his first seven home games.
If BVB do actually lose this game, Sahin is sure to hear something from his own fans.
Meanwhile, there is no reason to criticize the new customer bonus from Merkur Bets. Click on the banner and get up to €100 in free bets.
BVB: The loss of Emre Can weighs heavily!
Freiburg has certainly seen better days, but the same can be said for BVB.
The Breisgauer have not won in the last three Bundesliga games and are currently lacking the consistency that characterized them at the beginning of the season. Five wins in seven games – they have been far from that recently.
But BVB is not on track either: four defeats in the last six competitive games speak volumes and leave no doubt that there is a crisis in Dortmund.
Particularly bitter for the black and yellows is the loss of their captain and anchor in midfield: Emre Can. Without him, the Dortmund ship seems to be rocking heavily.
The statistics speak for themselves: with Can in the starting eleven, the win rate is a solid 67 percent, without him it drops dramatically to 25 percent. Not only that – BVB concede significantly more goals on average without their leader!
This could be Freiburg’s chance to get back in the win column after their recent losing streak. Without Can, BVB looks vulnerable, and if SC finds the right mix of defensive compactness and offensive creativity, home field advantage could make all the difference.
Borussia Dortmund coach Nuri Sahin can breathe a sigh of relief ahead of the Bundesliga clash against Freiburg, as several players are returning.
After a string of injuries that caused Dortmund to slip to seventh place, Gregor Kobel, Gio Reyna, Julien Duranville, Waldemar Anton and Jamie Bynoe-Gittens are now available again.
Sahin emphasized that not all of the “newcomers” are at 100%, but they are ready for action. “There is finally more good news than bad,” said Sahin, who hopes to be able to rotate more in the future.
Despite the continued absence of players like Niklas Süle and Emre Can, Dortmund is looking ahead to the coming weeks with confidence. I, on the other hand, have my doubts that they will actually take the right course without these two key players.
My Dortmund Freiburg Tip:
My Dortmund Freiburg prediction points to a defensive game in which BVB could reach its limits offensively. Freiburg has recently impressed with a stable defense against Mainz and Union as well as in a friendly against KSC.
Although Dortmund’s offense has more potential than their opponent, their performance against Mainz was a cautionary tale of the difficulties of breaking through compact defenses.
The loss of Emre Can makes the situation even more difficult, as his presence in the midfield usually ensures stability and possession of the ball.
Therefore, the Dortmund Freiburg betting tip “BVB under 1.5 goals” seems to me to be a good choice.
