Bundesliga 11th matchday, Saturday, 11/21/2024 at 6:30 pm
Eintracht Frankfurt and Werder Bremen face off in the top game of the 11th matchday. The SGE is in good form, having recently fought hard for three points in Stuttgart to secure their fourth consecutive victory in competitive matches.
Werder, meanwhile, managed to record their first home win against promoted side Kiel. The green-whites have got off to a good start to the season and have only lost one game away from home. What’s more, the entire squad is available.
The Eagles face a difficult task. In my Frankfurt Werder Bremen betting tip, I am therefore betting on both teams scoring. Betway has the right odds.
Four wins in a row for Frankfurt and four times in a row their top striker Omar Marmoush, who now has eleven goals and seven assists at league level, scored, all of which he has managed in just ten match days!
SGE has scored 26 goals, putting them level with Bayern as the team with the highest scoring rate, but they have conceded nine more than the record champions. Before the 11th matchday, the team in third place is six points behind the leaders.
Let’s take a look at the odds. Frankfurt are favourites for the home game at Bet365, although not by much at 1.70. The green-whites have a 1.66 odds with Bet9ja for the win.
Let’s take a look at the odds. Frankfurt is ahead for the home game at Bet365, although not by too much in the form of a 1.70, the Green-Whites have a 4.33, with a draw (4.10) considered to be somewhat more realistic.
In terms of a double chance bet, only the X2 is likely to pay off as a single option, but it is too hot. The 1X, on the other hand, would have to be combined with a goal bet to achieve decent odds.
But I don’t want to commit to who will win this game anyway.
KI prediction Frankfurt vs. Werder Bremen: That’s what ChatGPT predicts.
Does the AI have a clear opinion on the match outcome market? In fact, ChatGPT only has odds from this market in the high-risk variant, namely the draw with both teams scoring as a combination.
This constellation allows for an improved draw rate of 4.60. I don’t think that’s too bad, I have a 1-1 and 2-2 as the final result in my head. Both outcomes are also covered by the draw and under 4.5 goals bet, which Winamax offers at 4.30, and without tax.
There is a great new customer bonus with a free bet of up to €100, the value of the freebet depends on the amount of the first deposit.
The “medium risk” attribution gives the AI the odds of “Over 3.5 goals”, which are 2.25. Given the immense goal average of both teams, I agree. We have seen more goals in matches involving SGE than any other Bundesliga team, with 42 so far.
The Werder games haven’t been boring either, with 3.8 goals per game. Both teams are offense-oriented, with the aim of forcing results, at the cost of conceding quite a few goals.
The AI sees “low risk” in the betting selection that Frankfurt will score first. That has actually been the case in the last seven Frankfurt games, but it’s not a bet to my taste, even if Bremen have conceded the 0-1 in six of the last eight matches. You get 1.55 for this selection.
Analysis: Frankfurt vs. Werder Bremen
I feel most comfortable with the simple variant that both teams will score a goal. Incidentally, that was the case in all away games for the team from the Weser.
A goal balance of 13:12 after five games, only Bayern had more. However, with 13 goals, Bremen is the second most dangerous away team in the Bundesliga after FCB.
At the same time, only Bochum has conceded more away goals. And the SGE at home? Still unbeaten! Three wins and a draw, even though other teams have already played at home six times, Frankfurt has scored the most goals at home.
15 in total, in addition to the impressive 7:2 against Bochum, Hoffenheim (3:1) and Gladbach (2:0) also had no chance. A last-minute equalizer enabled them to hold on to a point against Bayern (3:3).
Odds Analysis
Whether Bundesliga or DFB Cup, Marmoush has scored reliably in all five matches at Deutsche Bank Park so far. He also scored the decisive 1-0 against Slavia Prague in the Europa League with a beautiful free-kick.
Given this scoring rate, I think the 2.05 offered by Betano for Marmoush to score is too high. Bremen’s head coach Ole Werner has basically managed to stabilize the defense, but there are still too many outliers.
You can get the double odds at Betano with no deposit and no risk. Even before you make your first deposit, a free bet of 20 euros is waiting for you when you verify your account.
With both teams scoring, that becomes 2.65. With the SGE conceding 18.7 expected goals, I would definitely add that to the bet. Based purely on the quality of the chances, the SGE should have conceded the most goals after Bochum and Hoffenheim.
Some absences at the hosts
I have already written above that Bremen currently has no injured players. Only the suspended Naby Keita is currently not part of the squad.
The situation at SGE is more complicated. Hugo Larsson, Rasmus Kristensen, Aurele Amenda, Arthur Theate, Oscar Hojlund, Hugo Ekitike and Jean-Matteo Bahoya were absent during the match week.
Goals again, but no winner?
What about the head-to-head between Frankfurt and Bremen?
In recent years, goals from both teams have been a common occurrence. In five of the last six games, Frankfurt and Bremen have scored.
Last season, both teams shared the points, with a 2-2 and a 1-1 draw. In the season before that, Frankfurt won 2-0 and celebrated a 4-3 away win in Bremen.
Meanwhile, there was nothing to be gained for SVW in Frankfurt for a long time. The last away win came in September 2018, a 1-2. Milot Rashica was able to decide the game with a free kick practically at the final whistle.
It remained the only Werder win in the past 15 years, in which Bremen visited 14 times.
Overall, however, there were also some draws. Three of the previous four meetings ended in draws.
My Frankfurt Werder Bremen Tip:
Frankfurt has only lost two competitive games, the SGE is still without a defeat at home and has scored the most home goals, now the second-strongest away offense is coming. Werder has only gone away empty-handed once beyond the Hanseatic city.
In addition, Werner can access the entire squad, unlike Frankfurt, who have a few issues. I can underline the fact that the bookmakers are only cautiously favoring Frankfurt with a 1.70.
Against the ball, it was sometimes very spongy, the eagles allowed the most shots in the league with 178, and with 65, the most on target.
Therefore, my Frankfurt Werder Bremen betting tip is: Both Teams to Score!
