Supercopa final, Sunday, 12/01/2025 at 8:00 p.m.
Duel number 259 is taking place, and to the chagrin of fans in Saudi Arabia! These days, the Supercups are being played out around Europe’s top leagues, and in Spain, too, the love of money has led them to move out into the desert.
On Sunday, the Clasico, the match that an entire country is watching, takes place. The differences? They could be marginal. In my Real Madrid Barcelona tip, I will therefore tell you what points to a triumph for the royals in my opinion.
Champions against cup winners? That was then! The Spanish Super Cup has been played as a Final Four since 2020, and not every fan is convinced by this new format. Especially not because, with the exception of 2021, it is no longer being played in the home country.
Saudi Arabia is now the venue for the Supercopa, and I can understand right away that the fans don’t like it. All the more reason for me to wonder what motivation the four teams had when they set out.
In addition to FC Barcelona and Real Madrid, Athletic Bilbao and Mallorca also traveled to the desert. And how could it be otherwise, the two giants each caught one of the underdogs as opponents.
Of course, Bilbao is more than just a mid-table team in Spain, but they were still underdogs in their clash with Barca. The result? A 2-0 win for the Catalans.
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Barcelona did what needed to be done, with Gavi and Lamine Yamal scoring the two goals. Since the new format was introduced, Barca have been eliminated in the semi-finals twice, only managing to take the cup home in 2023.
Of course, when it comes to the title contenders, I have to look at everything that has happened in the last few months. They have only managed to win one of the last seven league games, which I can confidently call a “crisis”!
Suddenly, home games against Leganes and Las Palmas were lost, and the team looked completely out of sorts. Is the Supercopa a welcome distraction or does it risk causing the mood to slip even further?
Of course, the league is much more important, and next Saturday the team will play an away game against Getafe. The fans prefer to remember the good times of 2024/25.
And of course, the 4-0 win at the Bernabeu comes to mind immediately! After four defeats in a row with 13 goals conceded, things finally went well again, for example in the Supercopa, which ended 1-4 almost exactly a year ago.
1-4 and 3-1, the direct duels have ended differently since the new format was introduced. However, Real Madrid have won four of the last five finals, including the Copa del Rey.
Perhaps the minimal lead that the royals will enjoy on Sunday is also due to this. Our bookmakers’ odds show you an average of 2.40 to 2.75.
But of course the Madrilenians know that they have not been playing that convincingly again for a few weeks! The semi-final was won 3-0 against Mallorca – and that was certainly not the strongest opponent.
Two of the three goals were scored in stoppage time, one of which was even scored by the opponent. Nevertheless: Real was clearly superior here, Mallorca did not manage to get a single shot on target.
The postponed game against Valencia, which Real had to play at the beginning of January, clearly showed that there is still room for improvement. 2-1 in the last second? That was a close call!
In the last two competitive matches, three goals were scored in stoppage time. If you want to place a relatively low-risk bet, you should perhaps go for “Madrid scores after the break” after registering with Oddset, where you can get odds as low as 1.55!
The reigning champions have conceded eight goals in the last three matches and were lucky against Mallorca in the 3-0 win that there was no opposing shot on goal at all.
Real Madrid or Barcelona – once again we are faced with this exciting question. The Super Cup is being awarded, and of course I can’t possibly judge from afar which team considers this competition more important.
Form is definitely better on the side of the Madrileneans. Barca has now beaten Bilbao, but the league has been topsy-turvy of late. Yes, Real has also slipped up from time to time, but the results have been significantly better overall.
Since four of the last five finals between these two teams were in the capital, I have decided to recommend the following tip to you again:
Real take the Copa home!
