Bundesliga 17th matchday, Tuesday, 14.01.2025 at 20:30
I’m currently unable to pick a favorite for this fixture before kick-off. Wolfsburg (10th) and Gladbach (11th) are tied in the table, have collected 24 points each and would probably prefer to swap the roles in this pairing.
The Wolves have mostly put on their spending pants in the Volkswagen Arena. Just eight points from their first eight home games is of course far too few for the home side’s ambitions.
Borussia have also not scored more than eight points away from home and have so far exuded far less goal threat away from home than at home. Given these signs, can I still find a useful Wolfsburg Gladbach tip for tonight’s clash?
Ahead of this match, I have the feeling of a low-scoring encounter that could follow the pattern of the last Wolves game.
Last weekend, the team from Lower Saxony won 1-0 at TSG Hoffenheim, but strictly speaking that match didn’t deserve a winner.
In my Wolfsburg Gladbach prediction, I am willing to take the risk of odds of 2.35 and speculate on “Under 2.5 goals” at NEO.bet.
The prediction of the bookmakers?
As a rule, the host team has had the upper hand in the direct encounters of late. Three of the last four encounters have gone to the home side.
Annoyingly for the Wolves, the Foals have always been the hosts in these three matches and have won four competitive games in a row against Wolfsburg.
However, the bookmakers are completely unimpressed by these recent results and are sending Wolfsburg onto the pitch as favorites with odds of around 2.05. With odds of around 3.50, a “Gladbach win” brings the right value for the use of a sports betting bonus.
KI prediction Wolfsburg vs Gladbach: This is what ChatGPT
In this day and age, artificial intelligence is of course also a factor in the betting market. That’s why I’m giving you the recommendations from ChatGPT. The first AI tip goes a step too far for me with “Gladbach to score in both halves”, even if the 3.60 odds from Bwin don’t sound bad.
The visitors have only scored seven away goals in seven games – too few to convince me of this Wolfsburg Gladbach tip…
A “Double chance X2”, on the other hand, is justifiable and nothing new for Gladbach against Wolfsburg. The Foals have not been beaten by the Wolves in ten competitive matches. Here you can register with ODDSET and play the odds of 1.80 directly.
Contrary to my assumption, the AI forecast advises “Over 2.5 goals”. At LeoVegas there is a 1.58-fold win for this. However, I am not impressed by this variant. BMG kept 57 percent of their away games at “Under 2.5 goals” in the end.
Analysis: Wolfsburg vs Gladbach
Both teams are pretty much where they should be based on their results so far. Eight teams are currently ranked behind the Wolves. Ralph Hasenhüttl’s side have played six of these Bundesliga teams. The result: four wins and two draws.
Of the duels with the nine teams above them, Lower Saxony have only won two. In addition, the hosts scored six defeats and one draw.
If you take a closer look at the hosts’ results against the top nine, you will find the following pattern: every single game contained “Over 2.5 goals”. The matches against the rest of the Bundesliga developed quite differently. Five of the seven remaining games involving Hasenhüttl’s team ended with “Under 2.5 goals”.
It was a similar story for the Foals. Borussia defeated six of the seven teams behind them (1N). Only one win came from the duels with the current top nine (3U, 5N). Seven times, the BMG attack stopped at “under 1.5 goals”.
Rating Analysis
In my opinion, the bookmakers could make the odds comparison a little more balanced. In my opinion, two evenly matched teams will meet, with much depending on the form of the day.
Wolfsburg are not strong at home, nor have Gladbach been convincing away from home so far. In fact, the recent history of this fixture suggests an advantage for the visitors, which is not at all clear from the odds.
I would therefore tend to go with the AI prediction and prefer a “double chance X2” compared to a “double chance 1X”. Above all, the double Gladbach/Remis would still result in playable odds.
Wolfsburg vs. Gladbach: From calm follows jubilation
If you want to analyze VfL Wolfsburg’s games, you can – to put it bluntly – concentrate on the resting balls. The best example was the last Bundesliga match against Hoffenheim (1:0). Nothing really happened there for the entire match. The only exception: Amoura’s header from a corner to make it 1:0.
It was Wolfsburg’s twelfth goal from a set piece – the best in the German top flight. However, Wolfsburg are only half-hearted when defending from resting balls and also conceded the most goals from set-pieces (10).
Gladbach are relatively solid in set-piece situations (4 goals conceded) and have only conceded one goal in their last four direct encounters with Wolfsburg. “Wolfsburg under 1.5 goals” is therefore ideal for the LeoVegas bonus and the current odds of 1.98.
Pragmatic is hardly possible
Gerardo Seouane was considered by many experts to be the hottest candidate for the first managerial sacking of the season. However, the Swiss has developed the Foals in his second season without compromising his principles.
The 46-year-old is considered a true pragmatist by experts. Seouane has proven this on several occasions this season, including by removing the highly praised summer signing Kevin Stöger from the starting eleven in order to create more stability.
In doing so, he took a big risk and apparently did everything right. Gladbach have conceded less than 1.5 goals in eight of their nine most recent Bundesliga games and have lost just two of their last 10 matches in the German top flight.
Seouane also has one of the best Bundesliga goalkeepers at his disposal. Moritz Nicolas saved the most balls per game in the league (4.2).
However, Nicolas not only leads the Bundesliga goalkeepers in total saves, but also in the rate of 78.3 percent balls saved.
He is one of the main reasons for the lowest shot conversion rate of all Bundesliga teams this season against one team (8.30 percent).
In addition, no goalkeeper has prevented more goals against than Nicolas (6.5). The Wolves also have an outstanding keeper, who has kept his team from conceding 4.6 additional goals (4th).
My Wolfsburg Gladbach tip:
Both teams should be able to neutralize each other in this pairing and keep scoring chances to a minimum.
Two outstanding goalkeepers will put their stamp on this clash and fight it out for the Man of the Match award.
Standards could become less relevant in this pairing than in the Wolves’ other games, which is primarily down to the Foals.
My Wolfsburg Gladbach tip is:Under 2.5 goals!
