Leverkusen – Mainz betting tip, AI prediction & odds 14.01.2025

Bundesliga matchday 17, Tuesday, 14.01.2025 at 20:30

Leverkusen are chasing FC Bayern! The champions are four points behind the team that has lifted the trophy the most times by far. In the English week, the Werkself now face an unpleasant guest, the last team to beat Munich.

I have great respect for Mainz’s performance. They are currently in fifth place. However, I definitely rate Leverkusen as stronger, especially at home.

In my Leverkusen Mainz betting tip, I explain why I’m opting for the hosts’ odds of over 1.5 goals in the match at Interwetten tonight.

Xabi Alonso’s team recorded their ninth competitive win in a row with a 3-2 victory over Dortmund in the Bundesliga opener in 2025. Will it now be number ten? The next home game awaits on Tuesday against Mainz, who have been busy scoring recently.

Last weekend, they beat Bochum 2-0 at home. As a result, the club from Rhineland-Palatinate has established itself in the top half of the table and is only just behind the Champions League places. How do the bookmakers rate the situation ahead of the game against Leverkusen?

The bookmakers’ forecast

It should come as no surprise that Leverkusen are ahead according to the odds. I fully agree with the distribution. The hosts still get a fairly high 1.42 for the three-pointer, while Mainz are in the 7.10 range.

According to the Merkur Bets app, the draw is slightly more realistic, with the stake quintupled in the event of success. For the “Double Chance X2”, sports betting enthusiasts get a 2.69, which I don’t find particularly palatable.

KI prediction Leverkusen vs. Mainz: ChatGPT

We also asked for the AI’s opinion for this match, suggesting three odds, each with low, medium and high risk. The first recommendation is the “Over 2.5 goals” bet, which I also find very interesting.

After all, Mainz have been very accurate in recent matches, which is why I have the goal of both teams at the top of my list. According to ChatGPT, the bet that Leverkusen will lead at the break is somewhat more speculative, with much higher odds compared to the win tip.

Despite the fact that Leverkusen have been ahead at half-time in the last four league games, however, this bet is too hot for me.

I’d rather look to secure a free bet from one of our numerous bonus offers and take the high risk tip from the artificial intelligence. A 7.50 awaits us for the 2:1 result tip.

The 2:1 is not only the most common soccer result, but also a conceivable one for this match and after all, Leverkusen have won two of their last seven games 2:1. However, as I said, I would only place such a bet with free bet credit.

Analysis: Leverkusen vs. Mainz

In addition to my Leverkusen win bet with at least two goals in the match, the goal of both teams was buzzing through my head for a long time, not only would a Leverkusen slip be secured, but also the better odds on the betting slip.

However, I can also see Leverkusen recording a controlled 2:0 win. The Werkself are becoming more stable from game to game and their confidence is growing from victory to victory.

In addition, they have kept a clean sheet every other time in their last eight games. Although Leverkusen conceded two goals against Dortmund, a strong home side, they only conceded a few throughout the match.

And Mainz? Yes, a 2-0 win against Bochum, but we didn’t see the great offensive power and FSV got away very well in the 3-1 win in Frankfurt before the turn of the year. I don’t expect the visitors to create many chances.

After wins against Dortmund (3:1) and Bayern (1:0), I consider the goal of both teams and the individual odds for the Mainz goal to be good alternatives all in all.

Rating Analysis

Squad-wise, Leverkusen are missing a few players, but overall the injury worries are manageable. The attack is still without Amine Adli and Victor Boniface. The latter will be replaced by Patrik Schick.

The injury-prone Czech is the top scorer with eleven goals. With the exception of a starting appearance against Wolfsburg, he has only been fully involved since November and has scored eleven goals in the last six matches

Two against BVB, four against Freiburg and at least five goals in three of his last four games. With these figures, it’s only logical that we have to take a look at the goalscorer market.

There are strong 1.95 odds for the man who formed a brace with Nathan Tella against Dortmund, I was actually expecting something lower after the many goals recently.

Leverkusen vs Mainz odds: Top odds for Burkardt goal

And Mainz? Given the striker situation, the winter break came at the right time. After all, the five-man team had to do without Jonathan Burkardt for almost the entire match against Bayern after he suffered a thigh injury.

The 24-year-old was then absent against Frankfurt but made an impressive comeback with a brace against Bochum. Twelve of Mainz’s 30 goals were scored by him, almost half of them.

The 3.75 odds are a good alternative to the Mainz goal, especially as, like Schick, he has come away empty-handed in only one of the last six games.

Mainz sees many goals scored against them

Whether offense or defense, Leverkusen ranks second in both categories, at least in terms of the number of goals scored. Only Bayern top the 259 opportunities, with Mainz just below the 200 mark.

The reason why I am convinced that Leverkusen will score at least two goals is also due to the fact that they concede the most chances in the league, 234 in total.

The last away game against Frankfurt alone saw them concede 34, which should make things uncomfortable against a Leverkusen offense that is now really strong again.

After all, Mainz have only lost one game away from home so far and that was the crazy 4:3 in Wolfsburg, their only defeat in the last nine games. Again, I wouldn’t put too much stock in this sequence of results.

With Kiel, Hoffenheim and Bochum, there were also three more rewarding tasks, against Frankfurt it was a very lucky win and Bayern also had a pitch-black day in the 2-1 defeat without Harry Kane.

I expect a different game against a functioning, stable Leverkusen team.

Bayer won both games in the championship season, with a 3-0 win in Mainz followed by a 2-1 victory in the reunion.

My Leverkusen Mainz tip:

Both teams will go into Tuesday evening’s game with a broad chest, but I see the German champions having a clear advantage in both offense and defense.

In the last away game in Frankfurt, FSV had to sweat a lot, wobbled badly at the back and were very lucky to only concede one goal.

Leverkusen have only scored three goals in Dortmund, and Schick in particular is in top form with six goals in the last two games. I expect him to celebrate another home win with his teammates and that we’ll see more than one goal.

My Leverkusen Mainz prediction: Win Leverkusen & Over 1.5 goals!

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